The next year and a half?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by tradestrong, Jan 28, 2008.

  1. Ok, I'm going to throw some ideas out there of how I feel the markets and the economy might play out over the next year and a half. I'm not "predicting" anything or saying this will definitely happen, but based upon the political and economic frameworks in existence today, I have a gut feeling it might play out to something close along this line.

    Like I said in a thread about a month and a half ago, I believe we're in a bear market.

    Over the next 11 months, there is going to be extreme attention paid to the economy by both Democrats and Republicans. They both have a lot to lose if the economy is in bad shape come October. They'll both take credit if the economy is good, and they'll both blame each other if its bad. Neither of them wants to be in the position of being the responsible party for bad news.

    So, right now, the economy is in rough shape. High inflation and low growth. There's a good chance we are in a recession. Still, over the next 2-4 weeks, I see a spike happening and then some sideways action to again have new lows in March and April. Come May, I think the political machines are going to go full boar. May through October and perhaps to the end of the year, I think there's a good chance that we rally as every possible political tool is used to stabalize the economy. I don't believe it will be completely successful though and I see us perhaps crashing again at the end of the year through the first half of next year. After the "bear" finally is able to get it of its system after the election. IMO, come the middle of next year, that's when we'll start to see the real recovery with some sideways action for a few months and then a new bull market.

    Now don't flame me. These are just some of my thoughts of how I "feel" the market might behave based on what I see economically and politically.
  2. A bit of indecision in the markets right now. Is the news bad? Is the news good? I think there's some denial at this moment. The economy is not great, but then again, it might not be as bad as what people might think.

    Without a doubt, the economy is taking a breather. Longer term, I'm bearish, but right now, I'm back to being bullish.

    Let's see where it goes!
  3. Still short. Still have a decent led in my positions.

    Todays rally, was expected but not welcomed by myself.

    The last two or three days we have been basing, persa.

    The market as some may say is "Over sold" or was.

    I think we are going to have a little volatility but we will end up back towards the lows of the year.

    Remember, the definition of a bear is 20% plus. We are not there yet. We are in the mist of a BEAR.

    I do believe we are in a recession.

    Keep in mind, IMHO I feel the INDU would be at or near 11000 if the "market" was not manipulated by the FEDS and "GOVRN" stim. package news.

    I think that we are setting up for a serious deep and long bear market. Of course, the more the market is "Pumped" by "HANDS" that manipulate it up.......the deeper and longer the end result will be.
  4. Fangdog


    I can't see how anyone with a dime in the Stock market wouldn't pull it out and be in cash. I can't imagine so many people being a frog in a pot of warm water just sitting there until the water comes to a boil.

  5. The Titanic is sinking.

    You got your regular dumb asses living off their trust funds still in the ball room doing the waltz to the orchestra who've been instructed to keep on playing ( psst, we'll keep the last life boat for you folks, keep on playing).

    Then you got the half wits who got sold into the story that the Titanic is the "best designed" ship that even G*d couldn't sink it. Most of these half-wits can only afford third class passage, so they're down by the boiler rooms. No one tells them what's going on because no one wants the hall way clogged with riff raff.

    Then you have whoever is left. These passengers know the damn ship is doomed. They go to the Captain and ask him to lower the life boats. This Captain is special. He makes decisions based on his "gut" ( because G*d sends messages to his "gut"). His "gut" tells him the ship is doing fine. No life boats for you. They know they're doomed, but don't do anything. Smart people, but very trusting and used to taking orders. if the Captain says things are ok, then everyone else must be lying.

    However there are a handful who say F.U., give the captain the middle finger salute, and proceed to lower the boats themselves and row off. It going to take brains, guts, and resources to weather what's coming ahead.

  6. How you " feel" and how you interpret things are actually your emotions and not facts. If you " feel" terrible you than assure yourself to assume that must be the reality and hence those become facts and your path descends in a downward spiral....

    Had you felt terrific than there would be another set of emotions and assumption of reality as facts. We are humans and we do " feel" things, but we also possess the ability to separate our " feeling" from reality and empirical world out there and hence we should not project ourselves to the future with a shaky set of premises.

    Its always a must in stock market to continue to predict the future and you did the same. Its called " fortune-telling". You are better off going to a Palm reader and pay her $20 dollars and get your dosage and be done with that.

    No one knows how things will play out this year. Just take a day at a time and keep your positivity checked. If you start " feeling" depressed and hopeless, question the validity of such feelings and bring yourself back to the center line.

    That's enough therapy for the night, read it twice till it sinks in.

  7. This is how you feel, while the markets and certain sectors are making good headway, you certainly are sitting on the sidelines and piping bad dreams and terrible fantasies.

    Has the sky fallen yet? Has the Titanic sunk yet? Has the recession eroded our society to smithereens?

    I will repeat the same set of questions, at the end of first quarter, and see how many of you will shun to answer me in complete shame.

  8. In other words you wish we should be lot poor today than not? You wish we should have been annihilated by now? You wish the Titanic should have sunk by now? You wish Fed were not regulating anything and there should be a free for all economic brawl where a bunch of goons would have shaped our future?

    How sweet? Why dont you go hang yourself in a $20 motel room and be done with this miserable life of yours. You ain't doing any good walking this earth anyhow with your negative breath.
  9. A good analogy. Just about sums it up.
  10. i think we're headed for 2+ years bear action. excesses from stupid money supply growth have to be fixed at some point. i don't think another wave of liquidity will be enough to ignite another bubble.

    the bath water is out of bubbles and the water is starting to go down the drain. we'll be looking at a pretty dirty tub once this water is gone.
    #10     Feb 13, 2008