The Next Trend In USA Alcohol

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by TGregg, Sep 28, 2003.

  1. TGregg

    TGregg

    For some reason that I do not understand, the USA undergoes Liquor Trendiness. We've had vodka, rum, whiskey and most recently, tequila. Probably the most noticeable symptom is a profusion of gourmet labels of the particular hooch involved - available for extreme prices, of course.

    Next on the list is gin, IMO. About the best bottle of gin ya can buy in the USA is Bombay Sapphire (to which I owe my love of martinis). It's about $25 for a 750ml bottle (a "fifth") here in NC, USA.

    That is dirt cheap compared to the price of high end bottles of anything else. And that suggests gin is ripe for a run. The yuppies are gonna discover this stuff, and demand the Premium Label Sh!t that sells for exorbitant prices.

    So, what publicly traded company is in the best position to benefit from the coming Gin Trend? What's the best way to capture this trend, options, stocks, futures? What's the best short?

    EDIT: And I will be so glad when tequila drops in price. Sheesh. I remember the first time I was in some Mexican restaraunt, asked the waiter for a snort of tequila, and he brought me a freaken Tequila List! Holy mackral! I just wanted some rotgut. Sigh.
     
  2. It's funny you mention this. After reading that thread about everyone's favorite vodka, I was going to mention the same thing. Since when did hard alcohol suddenly become so vogue. It wasnt that long ago that if a guy ordered vodka, he was considered a low life degenerate, hard core alcoholic. Now, we have a bunch of guys in a pissing contest about their favorite vodka, like its a status symbol to be seen drinking only the "finest vodka's". More bullshit marketing at work. And yeah I totally agree about the Tequila thing. Seems that since Tequila became so mainstream, the demand for the plant to produce Tequila is suddenly in short supply and Tequila prices have shot thru the roof.
     
  3. Pabst

    Pabst

    Much the same way I blow my girlfriend shit about paying 7 bucks for a six pack of Corona. The stuffs made with beautiful crystal blue Mexican water. Jeez you can't even eat a salad with lettuce irrigated in the country without being hospitalized for disentary. The only pristine streams going into those bottles are those of the brewery workers pissing into the vats of the stupid Gringo's.
     
  4. Trajan

    Trajan

    Gin, in particular, Bombay Sapphire is the only hard stuff I ever touch. I can get a big bottle for what you pay for a fifth though. In addition, you have two very popular derivatives, namely Pimm's and Jenever. Niether of which was easy find here in the U.S., but I'm seeing more of them. I always thought Jenever would get picked up eventually, it's a good shot drink plus the bottles are cool(they are made of cement).
     
  5. one of my best friends used to head pr for sapphire until a year ago, you're right, this brand is a rocket (or at least it was under her direction). i got a lot of free gin. more than a guy can drink...

    marketing is total bs, but it's tolerable if you know the brand manager and get free international travel and free liquor lol

    personally, gimme a whiskey and chase with a trusty local straub. then kick some doowop on the jukebox and we're good.

    ps - i have no idea how you would trade liquor trends, you might as well invest in fine art.
     
  6. My take on why vodka will stay on top. FWIW:

    Yeah, it is interesting that different types of liquor come into fashion. Certainly for the past 20 or 30 years or so, vodka has become the "in" liquor. But I don't see it falling from the top spot. Posssibly not ever. It is like what the hamburger is to sandwiches. Put on cheese and/or mushrooms, bacon, onions, whatever (citrus flavors and colors for vodka), but no matter what, a burger is a burger, and vodka is vodka. The King of hard liquors. For good reason.

    It is true that until relatively recently vodka was not a liquor of "class". It was cheap, it didn't need to be aged like the dark liquors such as Scotch, Bourbon, Rye and Dark Rum and it was essentially tasteless. And the mixed drinks of the earlier part of the 20th century were concoctions that are rarely ordered today. Like "old-fashions" "stingers" "Alexanders" "sidecars" "manhattans" and the like. The mixed drinks of more modern times are mostly made with the less expensive light liquors. The "screwdrivers" "margaritas" "collins" "slings" "sunrises"and of course the "call-them- what-they-are" drinks like "gin and tonic" "vodka and tonic" etc.

    The all time champ of mixed drinks is the Martini. Although whether they are actually "mixed" or not depends on the bartender. Most just pour straight vodka or gin. So the difference becomes the glass and the price. Now vodka martinis have far surpassed the classic Gin Martini (Previosly known just as a "martini' with no qualifier. Or a Gibson if it had a pearl onion in it. Thank you James Bond. Make it "shaken not stirred' (a bullshit thing to hear in a bar and virtually always ordered by someone with fake ID).

    Fairly recently the rules have changed as far as the definitions of vodka. When I was in the bar business in NY vodka had a legal definition. And that was that it had to be colorless, tasteless (except for the alchohol taste) and odorless (again, it had an aroma of alchohol, but no scent could be added as an ingredient).

    Obviously the rules have changed. I got out of that business a long time ago, and I have no idea how they deal with it now in NY, but vodka comes in colors, flavors and scents. So I don't know what the definition is now. Certainly not the ingredient. Vodka used to be the cheapest stuff that was distilled from potatoes (a cheap ingredient). The day before was a "good year". Not the case now. I think Stoli is made from spuds, but most vodka is make from grains. Even rice. Just about anything. Still not aged though. No need.

    Gin is made from distilled fruit. The original fruit was juniper, which is, I believe, where the name evolved from. But take a look at a bottle of Bombay. It's a veritable fruit salad. Don't remember off hand, and I don't have a bottle to look at, but I am quite sure there are at least a half dozen different berries used to make the stuff. Always thought of it as fermented fruit salad.

    I don't know how anyone could drink gin straight. I think this factor will help to keep vodka outselling gin. Tequila is taken in shots, but often with lime or lemon and salt. And besides, when doing shots of tequila, it is usually not white tequila. Dark tequila is aged, and more expensive, and doesn't mix as well as vodka does (or as white tequila does for that matter) so it won't surpass vodka in overall popularity. Doing shots of tequila is a whole ritual. And those first and second shots are pretty vile (at least to me). But gin? Personally, I don't think I could get a shooter down at all. Same with white rum. Not easy to drink straight. Needs coke. And lime (right El Cubano?). Cuba Libre!!!

    Really, while vodka has gained market share due to heavy advertising initially, it has always been a mainstay. Smirnoff had a great campaign in the 1950's and 60's. "Smirnoff leaves you breathless"...meaning you could drink it, and no one would smell it on your breath. Good name too. Sounded Russian (made in New Jersey probably...someplace exotic like that).

    Really, there are only a few different kinds of liquor. Scotch, Bourbon, Rum, Gin, and Vodka. Yeah, there are variations. Canadian Whiskey (Rye) is a variation of scotch. There are plenty of variations. Irish whiskey, is another. Jack Daniels is sour mash. Same as bourbon. Actually bourbon has an interesting deal. To be called bourbon, it has to be from Kentucky. So Jack Daniels is really bourbon but because it is made in Tennessee, it can't be called what it is. So it's "Old Number 7 Sour Mash". If it were made in Kentucky.....well you get the picture. Just like Champaign in France has to be from the Champaign region. Anywhere else in France, and it is "sparkling wine". Same with Cognac. Of course those are French laws, so we can have American Champaign from Peoria, and Cognac from California or anywhere. That's allowed. We always dissed the French and their rules. Nothing new there.

    My opinion is vodka will stay on top. It mixes with anything and hasn't got a distinctive enough taste to matter. If someone wants something that tastes like lemonade, but wants to get smashed, just put vodka in lemonade. If they want to taste tomato juice with spices, put in some vodka and you have a bloody mary. Screwdriver for orange juice. Etc. Try that with gin or white rum, or white tequila and the flavor of the liquor is just too much.

    People really drink for the effects when they drink mixed drinks. They are trying to hide the taste of the liquor. Vodka is the ideal ingredient for that. Really as close to tasteless as possible.

    People who actually LIKE the taste of their hard liquor will drink the dark liquors. And they usually drink them straight. Scotch being the most popular. You rarely see people ordering mixed drinks made with scotch. (There are some. "Rusty Nail" comes to mind. But not many). Or dark rum, or dark tequila, or rye or any of the variations. Not unheard of, there are plenty of mixed drinks that use these dark liquors, but they all don't add up to a fraction of the drinks made with white liquors (gin, vodka, light rum and light tequila....that is the whole list). And of these, the vast majority are made with vodka. Of course you can have 'em all in a Long Island Ice Tea (a vile drink ordered by people who don't tip and shouldn't drive. Ever).

    So gin is nothing new. The hard liquors have been around forever. Maybe rum is the newest since it's made from molasses, and that is a Caribbean product. A big part of the slave trade as the history buffs know. So pre-Columbus, maybe there was no rum. But there was the other stuff. And most of the wines have been around for a while. The sweet liqueurs... "flavored brandies"... just keep getting invented. These are the real "fad drinks" that you can score big on with an investment. Along comes an Ameretto, or a Kaluah, and if you are in it, you hit the lottery. But they are NOT a kind of liquor. They are classified as "wines" and they are just fermented anything and a lot of sugar and flavoring. THAT is were you can discover a recipe, drink enough so you never want to see the stuff again, get that out of your system easily, and make it a business. You don't want to consume the product yourself. Stay sober and just make money. Nice label, nice bottle, and you are halfway there. A decent taste, and you can have a home run.

    Don't know why I wrote all this. Late and bored and can't sleep. So there you have some more of my generally useless trivial knowledge. Always a pleasure to share:)

    Getting ready to return to trading soon. I said back in May (I think) that I would go back to trading in Sept. Well, there isn't much left of Sept., so I need to get on the stick!!! What's a stop order again? What time does the market open? What's the symbol for IBM? So much to catch up on !!

    Peace,
    :)RS
     
  7. HEY HEY EASY BROTHER! :eek:

    Corona is still my favourite beer and over here it's US$10 per sixpack, not $7. And in the pub, you pay that for a bottle.

    Just because you drink Pabst doesn't mean everything over 2 bucks a sixpack is exorbitant. What are you? A trader???

    Give your gf a break man - Finally a woman with cheap taste. After all, she could be asking for Chardonnay! :p


    Scientist.
     
  8. Hey ErroRs7, thanks for the post brother. I just went and memorized the whole thing. Ho boy, I am going to impress the fuck out of my friends at the next party.
     
  9. Bolts

    Bolts

    Bombay Sapphire has some advertising campaign on IFC (Independent Film Channel). I saw one really trippy ad. Pretty impressive actually. It's like they want you to think there's hallucinogens in the gin. :p
     
  10. Mvic

    Mvic

    was when Grappa became a trendy drink. The stuff is awful and only taken as a digestive in Italy but some how it got a mystique here in the US. What's next Bekarovka(sic? a truely heinoius drink I had the misfortune of drink way too much of in Prague)?

    Give me a nice single malt Scotch any day in a decent sized sniffter? MacAllens, or Lagavulin when a bit of peat is wanted.

    Bushmills is good too as is some US Bourbon.
     
    #10     Sep 29, 2003