I believe Fed will cut 75 bp on March 18 the last time Something must be done to commodity bubble If they cut 75 bp and say it's done. Don't expect any cuts soon it may at least suspend oil and food prices for some time Eventually higher fuel and food prices cut discretionary income - without price stabilization no recovery for sure They can stay in a fantasy world, of course but calls from outside are mounting and if they resist and oil hits let's say $150 later this year they will have to provide an intermeeting rate hikes just to avoid fuel and food riots
People will stop driving monster trucks and SUVs and eat more high fructose corn syrup and hydrogenated vegetable oils before there are any riots. Ultimately I think the bankers' plan will work more or less as they think: People will die off rather than lynch them. The populace might "riot" against the government, but to the owners of the world, governments are just like the peoples they enslave: human biomatter to be reduced to less bizarre levels. When you watch too much TV, you tend to forget that the banks have power over governments, not the other way round.
3month rates are trading at 165 points below current FED funds rate. Last time 3-month rates have been at <1.5% in 2002 the same time the Fed fund rate was at 1.5%. So expect the FED to lower rates by at LEAST 150 points during the next 2 months. The words "I believe" are bad if not followed by any research, do your homework.
so you're a desparate long trying to convince us rate cuts will happen and help you? http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1803828#post1803828 have you done any research buying the bottom 80 points higher? Or it was just a stupid call like this one?
I bought the first bottom end of January and I am buying this one, no need to get angry. I just posted the facts about current rates, so you can draw your own conclusion. Fed is creating the next bubble and the money will fly into stocks, period. If you think the FED will lower only 75points, you are not interpreting his last statements correct. I even believe a surprise rate cut is coming during the next days, be prepared.
2y treasuries are yielding 1.4% - Naturally the Fed will follow and cut to a minimum of ~2% this year. I'd say 2.0% by mid 2008.
My God, you have to be one of the biggest idiots on the board. Topsurfi is 100% correct, just reading back the facts of the market to you and you label him a "desperate long". What a fool you are.
I agree that the rate cuts have been stupid for the most part. Have done little if anything other than propping Wall St for a few days at a time. Not helping mortgage rates, nor credit in general. It is creating massive inflation via commodities, due to the crashing dollar. Just get the recession out of the way already so we can start growing again. The FED is just extending the pain. The FED isn't supposed to be political, but it obviously is. Jay
makloda how is your short puts from summer doing? you both deep under water and labeling someone an idiot won't save your long positions the fact is that if Fed continues to destroy the dollar there will be riots in this country as people won't be able to afford food and fuel with declared 2% inflation and stupid bond interest manipulation will not help to resolve this real world tasks