The Next Leg Down?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Jahajee, Nov 29, 2008.

  1. Rich

    I got into day trading BECAUSE I was HOLDING stocks when the summer crash hit ...I lost 8000.00. I had been trading since March, not understanding it was a temporary bull market. So I decided to just get ' in and out' as I could not trust any stocks.

    Except I made another dumb mistake in Sept... I guess of holding MTR, SJT, CRT. actually I was also day trading them, in and out but then holding the end of the month to collect their dividend but a week or so ago those crashed HUGE. I was gone from my trading desk helping my parents as I take care of them a few days a week. I lost 12,000.

    Other than these two messes my day trading has made money. I generally ride a stock up a little and sell . It will take me quite some time however to make up 20,000. I day trade ETF's, quite a number of them. I have made money day trading all kinds of ETF's. pharmacy, IBB, DBC, Moo, UYM, OIH, UYG, DIG,SH, UUP
     
    #41     Nov 30, 2008
  2. market is surging higher from here out. go long. no need to overanalyze this. The stock market is driven by consumer spending which has only slowed very little. Wages and productivity keep rising. Unemployment is just 1/2% above the historic average. This mental recession is hardly as deep as the one on 1992, and that one was very brief.
     
    #42     Nov 30, 2008
  3. richrf

    richrf

    If the market was to be driven by consumer spending, going forward, I would not be in the market. Individuals (and corporations) are entirely tapped out, and it will take years for them to deleverage to a sustainable level. Credit will no longer be extended to overleveraged individuals and corporations, because they both have a very bad habit of defaulting on debt when they are tired of paying back. I certainly would not lend to any that I know. Neither will the oversea lenders, who hold U.S. dollars (we are a debtor nation), who have figure out that the U.S. financial system is a giant scam built on a house of cards.

    However, decreased individual spending can be somewhat offset by increased capital spending spurred by municipal and federal programs. As long as the money is well spent, on building infrastructure and conserving energy, this spending will likely have a good longer term payback (no quick gains here), which hopefully will translate into a higher standard of living.

    Unemployment will get much worse. We are only seeing the beginning, and it will be the worst since 1972 - 1973. However, while the market is anticipating the possibility of greater than 9% unemployment, it may top out at 8%, with aggressive fiscal possibility. This is what the market is thinking right now, which is why we may be seeing a bottom.

    Trivializing the enormous economic and personal costs of the last decades of superbly idiotic, incompetent and scandalous, and greedy government and corporate governance would be a mistake. Things are as bad as they were since the early 70s and could get as worse as the 1930s. Let's hope, that we have a learned a lesson, that putting good ole boys, who enjoy a good glass of beer, into positions of power, has consequences.
     
    #43     Nov 30, 2008
  4. Mkt.Cap

    Mkt.Cap

    First: Stop.
    Second: Stop now.

    Reading your post remembers me on my earliest days and I tell you - this disaster will continue until you have burned all money you can get.

    Obviously your system is erratic. You are in to many markets. You have no risk management and too much leverage. Avoid stocks for daytrades as long as you don't know enough, and enough means more than most insiders.

    You want to get back what have lost - it won't happen that way.
     
    #44     Nov 30, 2008
  5. Mkt.Cap

    Mkt.Cap

    Don't think everything's all right except this one mistake you made. Regard your whole approach as faulty - as this mistake happened while applying your "system".

    As I just saw some other posts: don't read blogs or newsletters or newspaper comments or all this stuff at your stage. Find a liquid market and trade very small amounts (with CFDs or something like that). Test everything you can get (just to see that most won't work) and develop your own style.

    After some years (!) you will leave the "in and out" + market sentiment - level.
     
    #45     Nov 30, 2008
  6. I dont have any leverage.

    I agree my trading in different stocks and industry sectors is erratic. I normally have ' stops' on all my day trades or I am sitting there watching them for a few hours and getting out. I however did not have ' stops' on the oil trust becus I thought I would just keep holding them for a while...collecting dividends as per advise I got from ' experts' who said even if they "go down' you can collect dividends and hold them till they come up. Yes ...that was a strategy I was trying out...desperate times...I am seeking all kinds of advise.

    WHO expected the market to crash as far as it did a week or so ago? Those three stocks had been going 'up and down' steadily for a while. Maybe you anticipated this last leg going down as far as it did...but I hear that most people said it was hedge funds deleveraging...who knows when they will stop and what they are holding?

    My first lost...taught me SOME lessons believe it or not. I dont think anyone gets into trading expecting to never lose money. I am trying to keep a positive outlook on my skills and I dont give up easily. I just need to keep doing research, reading, asking for advise, trying out ideas and learning. I have NO one to help me personally. I dont have the advantage of being a rookie trader in a brokerage account trading with millions and losing money right and left until he ' gets the hang of it'. I also dont have ' anyone here in Houston" I can go and watch trade and mentor me. So I do the best I can.

    Right now my strategy is momentum trading...thats about it. When things are going down I get into ETF shorts/ultrashorts when things are going up I ride up some stocks.

    That has been working for me until I made this mistake of holding stocks for dividends...which some expert gave me that advise.

    What can I say....I do have a mental ' stop' in my mind of how much loss I am willing to take in my account. I have not reached there. If I do...I will perhaps get out and do something else with my money. Until then...I need help that will keep me in the game and not wiping out- thank you very much.

    :)
     
    #46     Nov 30, 2008
  7. PS

    I am not a complete loser.

    I have made a little over 9000.00 since March.

    Technicals that I was using and charts etc...went down the toilet with these big crashes...where everything is going down becus of ' pissy hedge fund guys selling like mad, fund managers selling

    oh by the way...the first lost I had...it was mainly in a Fidelity Fund- 5 Star morning fund....that was my first BUY on my own. Thinking I should own this from a book I read who talked about having a foundation under you of ' various funds' and then trading on top of that.

    The funds crashed...and I was stuck in them for three months before I could sell.

    So much for ' smart guys managing funds"

    That is why I got into this to begin with...CHASE lost all my profit and some of my principle last year and in January of this year...in one of those managed well diversified accounts

    shessh....diversified crashed and burned just like everything else.

    Right now I try and stick to one stock at a time.
     
    #47     Nov 30, 2008
  8. Mkt.Cap

    Mkt.Cap

    I edited my last post - hope you saw it.

    Your experts should have told you that some companies pay dividends, some buy their own stocks and some do both. So a change in price is nearly the same as a change in dividends, and 1$ dividend + 2$ loss in price is still a loss.

    Many people and for years. After a while you will realize that not price but time is the most important thing (like the time that passes before your target comes).

    It won't help you. You need own experience - watch yourself!

    Mental stop aren't worth the paper they are written on. Set a stop and consider this amount as sure loss - you will become quite carefully.
     
    #48     Nov 30, 2008
  9. Mkt.Cap

    Mkt.Cap

    Lol: Imagine the shorties in 2003-2007 where everything is going up becus of ' pissy hedge fund guys buying like mad, fund managers buying


    Learn to differ between a trade and an investment. Don't trade your investments too much (perhaps 0 to 3 times a year). Don't use stocks for trading - you don't know what some funds, large investors, the company, the exchange is doing right after your trade.
     
    #49     Nov 30, 2008
  10. richrf

    richrf

    Hi,

    Can you elaborate on your preferred vehicle for trading? I agree with your sentiments about stocks.

    Rich
     
    #50     Nov 30, 2008