the stock market can only go higher. dow 14k within 14 months, dont fight the trend, which is up from now on. i know this is true.
Full marks for conviction, my friend, but the UNCERTAINTY will create many downdrafts even if you are actually correct in your assertion (which I think is highly unlikely due to general grim economic reading globely).
Since when do equity markets have a 1:1 correlation with the Economy? Ever watched a "liquidity-driven" market rally and rally and rally regardless of poor economic fundamentals? Just curious.
YES WELL ....hence my confusion. All the experts on TV, magazines, newsletters are split about 50 /50 on what is going to happen next. Since the market is severely down more than usual in this crash. I would like to short some stocks that have had a run up... I will just have to bite the bullet and do this....with or without help. I recently visited another site with a young guy that all hes doing is shorting small stocks and I thought I might get more familiar with shorting ...but I have moved on from there. I havent dont Options yet either. When I started trading in March I was trading long and not losing any money. I figured I would take it one step at a time and learn ' other things' as I got comfortable with each one first. Then the crash happened in the summer and I was caught with a bunch of stocks. So I lost 8000. I dont hold too many now, in and out. and I am now wanting to do more shorting but when I got ready to do it there was all this news about ' short-selling' and how these people were destroying companies and also the ban on SS so I just didnt do it. I wish I could spend one day with an experienced trader and stand over his shoulder or have him stand over mind and walk me thru some ' shorting' trades and also some ' Options". I took a class at Fidelity and read books but its just not the same. Anyway.. we still dont know if its going up or down...even on this thread the opinion is mixed. There was light volume trading tho this past week...so we might go down next week but not ' a big leg down test lows' kind of thing. Christmas may be ' goodwill" days. But if theres some real negative news over a couple of days in a row...we could see another leg like a few weeks ago I suppose...traders seem pretty negative these days.
my indicator is telling me monday morn the market is down. my basic wave count to me looks like a 4th wave correction that is finishing. and to stock trdr go make some more fudge. bgp
Traders should take advantage of approx 7% move. For me, the risk is too much; it would not too risky if I can indentify the top within 1 or 2 % - I would gladly take the 5% on this ling trade and move on to another trade. A % here, a % there, and pretty soon we are talking about.... I prefer waiting to short with a higher profit potential - at least 15% on SPX or SPY. Also, declines are sharper, faster, and easier to manage (at least for me)
Identify the top within 1% or 2%? This sounds a lot like another thread about the S&P falling below 700 in "a few days" (hint: it was posted more than a few days ago). We'll see how the 1% or 2% prediction goes. I won't call a bottom, but there are way too many dumb shorts right now....this looks a lot like the tech/real esate/oil market bubbles in reverse. Too many newbies think they can profit with the same strategy indefinitely.
Slow down, Sit Still for a moment. Now read below what I wrote. "it would not too risky if I can indentify the top within 1 or 2 %" A key word in there is "IF" As in "if I can indentify the top within 1 to 2 % then I would take a long trade that has a potential 7% return". But since I cannot be sure that I will indentify the top within 1 to 2% then I will not take the long trade. You got it? Good for you. Quote from Jahajee: Traders should take advantage of approx 7% move. For me, the risk is too much; it would not too risky if I can indentify the top within 1 or 2 % - I would gladly take the 5% on this ling trade and move on to another trade. A % here, a % there, and pretty soon we are talking about.... I prefer waiting to short with a higher profit potential - at least 15% on SPX or SPY. Also, declines are sharper, faster, and easier to manage (at least for me)
If Paulson shows his face on TV, I will add to my shorts, if he doesn't I will tighten the stops to cover.
My guess is that both long and shorts are going to get whipsawed for the next couple of months, with an overall underlying movement that is up, as institutions start putting their huge cash reserves back to work.