The next bubble is about to descend

4EXJOE · Nov 17, 2009

Please. The banksters will make off with huge fees from selling these companies at IPO to our new Chinese overlords.

gastropod · Nov 17, 2009

Quote from the1:

They aren't wrong, they just can't predict the exact timing of the next crisis but it's coming. The Fed is keeping rates at zero percent to guarantee banks can generate profits to offset the losses they will incur by foreclosing on houses, thereby realizing the loss. Once that objective has been met rates will go back up but in the meantime another asset bubble will be created. The Fed's back is up against the wall. Either raise rates now and let a huge bank (BAC) collapse or keep rates low and deal with whatever bubble gets manufactured in the process 3-4 years from now (maybe sooner). Which would you choose?
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It is like the old saying, "Don't try to invent a foolproof mechanism. They are always inventing bigger fools who will break your foolproof mechanism!" It is hard to predict exactly when the collapse will start, because it is so hard to predict how stupid the Fed and Central Banks around the world will act. To the Austrian school crowd it is hard to believe how the dumb Keynsian crowd keeps propping up the markets. It is hard for the Austrian crowd, because the Austrian crowd knows that each bit of propping up the market just means that it will fall all the harder when it does fall. Just when you think, "OK, that must be the end of the stupidity!" The Keynsians come up with something even more stupid! (Cash for Clunkers, Cash for Appliances, etc. - pissing good money after bad. Buying equity in banks...instead of closing them...pissing good money after bad...it goes on)

-gastropod

Mike Morrison · Nov 17, 2009

Quote from the1:

They aren't wrong, they just can't predict the exact timing of the next crisis but it's coming. The Fed is keeping rates at zero percent to guarantee banks can generate profits to offset the losses they will incur by foreclosing on houses, thereby realizing the loss. Once that objective has been met rates will go back up but in the meantime another asset bubble will be created. The Fed's back is up against the wall. Either raise rates now and let a huge bank (BAC) collapse or keep rates low and deal with whatever bubble gets manufactured in the process 3-4 years from now (maybe sooner). Which would you choose? [/Q
UOTE]

Oh I see, we're predicting the future, huh?...LOL! Good luck with that. In the meantime I'll continue to enjoy the bubble building in my trading account and not give a thought as to what might or might not happen 3-4 years from now. All this macroeconomic bullshit is, well, just that..bullshit. And regardless of what happens why do I give a rats ass? I'm in cash at 4pm every single day.
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dave74 · Nov 17, 2009

Ride this sucker all the way up, and ride it all the way down.

gastropod · Nov 17, 2009

Quote from Mike Morrison:

Quote from the1:

They aren't wrong, they just can't predict the exact timing of the next crisis but it's coming. The Fed is keeping rates at zero percent to guarantee banks can generate profits to offset the losses they will incur by foreclosing on houses, thereby realizing the loss. Once that objective has been met rates will go back up but in the meantime another asset bubble will be created. The Fed's back is up against the wall. Either raise rates now and let a huge bank (BAC) collapse or keep rates low and deal with whatever bubble gets manufactured in the process 3-4 years from now (maybe sooner). Which would you choose? [/Q
UOTE]

Oh I see, we're predicting the future, huh?...LOL! Good luck with that. In the meantime I'll continue to enjoy the bubble building in my trading account and not give a thought as to what might or might not happen 3-4 years from now. All this macroeconomic bullshit is, well, just that..bullshit. And regardless of what happens why do I give a rats ass? I'm in cash at 4pm every single day.
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Those who claim to see are blind!

-gastropod
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PlusMinus · Nov 17, 2009

Quote from Mike Morrison:

Quote from the1:

They aren't wrong, they just can't predict the exact timing of the next crisis but it's coming. The Fed is keeping rates at zero percent to guarantee banks can generate profits to offset the losses they will incur by foreclosing on houses, thereby realizing the loss. Once that objective has been met rates will go back up but in the meantime another asset bubble will be created. The Fed's back is up against the wall. Either raise rates now and let a huge bank (BAC) collapse or keep rates low and deal with whatever bubble gets manufactured in the process 3-4 years from now (maybe sooner). Which would you choose? [/Q
UOTE]

Oh I see, we're predicting the future, huh?...LOL! Good luck with that. In the meantime I'll continue to enjoy the bubble building in my trading account and not give a thought as to what might or might not happen 3-4 years from now. All this macroeconomic bullshit is, well, just that..bullshit. And regardless of what happens why do I give a rats ass? I'm in cash at 4pm every single day.
More...

Why do you say macro is BS? It's not BS if it's used as part of long term strategies. It has incredible relevance to those who hold large and long term positions, or who are running businesses, which affect the markets. It also has big relevance to those who trade currencies or broad index tracking instruments, as well as commodities.

It's interesting that around here there is so much disregard for those who are not making trades off every minor swing in the market, as if that is the only way to trade or invest.
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Mike Morrison · Nov 17, 2009

Quote from PlusMinus:

It's interesting that around here there is so much disregard for those who are not making trades off every minor swing in the market, as if that is the only way to trade or invest.
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You find it interesting that a site called Elite Trader would focus on trading, huh? Wow! You must be shocked and amazed on a regular basis..LOL!

PlusMinus · Nov 17, 2009

Quote from Mike Morrison:

You find it interesting that a site called Elite Trader would focus on trading, huh? Wow! You must be shocked and amazed on a regular basis..LOL!
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This site isn't called EliteShortTermTrader. There are plenty of longer trading styles, and as I suggested, there are plenty of short term traded instruments that are effected heavily by the macro view du jour. Commodities, currencies, are just a few.

The point is that macro is no more or less BS than any other view that underlies a trader's strategy. It depends on the strategy and the individual/organization. There are plenty of hedge funds that do high or medium frequency trading but use macro views for long term hedges.

Optional · Nov 17, 2009

You are the biggest retard in 2009.

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

This is going to be the biggest story of 2010, 2011 and 2012...

...there are 10 million employees of vpmpanies owned by these massively leveraged private equity firms.

Just wait until massive defaults on this debt affect unemployment and bank balance sheets.

No one is going to tell me we aren't on a crash course for a depression.

It won't be just the U.S, either.
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ddefina · Nov 17, 2009

Quote from Mike Morrison:

Oh I see, we're predicting the future, huh?...LOL! Good luck with that. In the meantime I'll continue to enjoy the bubble building in my trading account and not give a thought as to what might or might not happen 3-4 years from now. All this macroeconomic bullshit is, well, just that..bullshit. And regardless of what happens why do I give a rats ass? I'm in cash at 4pm every single day. [/B]
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This is the Economics forum, not the intra-day scalping forum, go harass those guys for being off topic.

Banks aren't lending and are trying to get rid of deposits...the loan requirements are very tight now which eliminates a lot of business. So even with zero interest rates the banks aren't going to be selling much of that cheap "inventory." The next banking crisis is around the corner.