The next Black Swan event

Discussion in 'Economics' started by mutluit, Oct 23, 2012.

  1. mutluit


    The next Black Swan event could be...
    - A meteor/astroid hitting ... for example... NY... or... Israel... or...
    - Discovering that gold is worthless b/c so abundant somewhere
    - If Germany's gold reserves abroad cannot be located, ie. stolen....
    - ...add yours...
  2. If you could predict what the next black swan event would be, it wouldnt be a black swan event, would it? :)
  3. Obama loses the election. Oh wait; maybe that's the next black swan song. :D
  4. probably a gold revaluation to way higher levels to clean governments of their debts

    wont happen any time soon though
  5. zdreg


    the answer is yes it would be a black swan event.
    review the definition of black swan event.
  6. kut2k2


    " An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict." (Investopedia).

    Mine would be a mathematical relation :

    Black Swan == { df < kest } ,
    df is the doom fraction, and
    kest is the best Kelly-fraction estimate available.

    df == 1/max[ .001, max[ -Ri ]_i=1toN ]

    For an example, the doom fraction of this system is 1, so we do have a Black Swan scenario if no kest value less than one can be found.
  7. zdreg


    thanks for a serious response. mine was said in jest. just becomes one fool makes an outrageous forecast correctly does not negate the fact that it is a black swan event according to the definition of a black swan event.
  8. Real estate bubble crash or credit crunch starting in China. Yes, I live in Shanghai.