The next Black Swan event could be... - A meteor/astroid hitting ... for example... NY... or... Israel... or... - Discovering that gold is worthless b/c so abundant somewhere - If Germany's gold reserves abroad cannot be located, ie. stolen.... - ...add yours...
If you could predict what the next black swan event would be, it wouldnt be a black swan event, would it?
probably a gold revaluation to way higher levels to clean governments of their debts wont happen any time soon though
" An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict." (Investopedia). Mine would be a mathematical relation : Black Swan == { df < kest } , where df is the doom fraction, and kest is the best Kelly-fraction estimate available. df == 1/max[ .001, max[ -Ri ]_i=1toN ] For an example, the doom fraction of this system is 1, so we do have a Black Swan scenario if no kest value less than one can be found.
thanks for a serious response. mine was said in jest. just becomes one fool makes an outrageous forecast correctly does not negate the fact that it is a black swan event according to the definition of a black swan event.