The next bear of the leg will be appearing.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by KINGOFSHORTS, Aug 22, 2009.

  1. Hope is not a strategy. You cannot hope your way out of a recession.

    Somehow it seems that the entire economic situation is pending on Americans borrowing and spending again.

    Americans are too busy right now servicing debt to spend on more chinese trinkets.

    For the global economy to work it has to be a give and take scenario. But just taking and not giving will no longer work.

    Either the US gets back to exporting and Americans get back to earning proper wages where they can sustain themselves a middle class without having to borrow to make up the difference do not expect things to get better.

    My prediction is another big correction in the next few weeks once Hope fades and reality comes back into the picture.

    A friend in GS told me they are setting up for a huge short.

    "But until American consumers begin spending again, and so long as jobs are still being lost, the durability of any recovery is questionable."
  2. You may rethink importasnce of US consumer on a global scale. Maybe that is where you missing the point and recovery may still go ahead. Lots has changed in last 10 years. Anywhere you go, see russians to be by far the top spenders.

    Not sure how that can be but it is.
  3. S&P 500 = New Highs
    DJIA = New Highs
    Russells 2000 = New Highs
    Nasdaq = several points from new highs

    And you are a bear? Price action... price action... price action!

    (Long equities and hedge against the US dollar.)
  4. Keep drinkin' the "long equities," "high inflation" kool-aid."

    What a bunch of horseshit.
  5. Hope — it is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength and your greatest weakness.

    * The Architect The Matrix Reloaded
  6. Great quote.
  7. Some self deceptions are small and relatively unimportant - like the continuing notion that America won the War of 1812

    Other self deceptions like democracy and the free market are big and important

    We could not live without them.....

  8. maxpi


    Lumping all American consumers together like that is silly...

    Think about these seemingly contradictory statements: "jobs is a lagging indicator" and "consumers lead the way out of recession".

    There are plenty of households that have the wealth, don't borrow to do anything at all, and will spend more when they perceive that the crisis is not permanent... maybe after they get done loading up on real estate like they do at the low point in every business cycle... You want to follow the smart money to make money, all these news reports about people getting laid off and jobs reports is the dumb money... all the people that profit from negativity like shorts and gold nuts here on ET and news outlets have you focused on the dumb money 24/7....
  9. real estate is a comparitively cheap asset right now
    if you have sufficient cash....

  10. We are now.
    #10     Aug 22, 2009