CFC, KBH, LEN, RYL Some homebuilders. Some lenders. Some serious $$$$$. All trading in or around the 30s, but should be teenagers soon enough.
A way out west there was a fella, fella I want to tell you about, he called himself the Dude. Now, Dude, that's a name no one would self-apply where I come from. But then, there was a lot about the Dude that didn't make a whole lot of sense to me. 'cause some- times there's a man--I won't say a hee-ro, 'cause what's a hee-ro?--but sometimes there's a man. And I'm talkin' about the Dude here-- sometimes there's a man who, wal, he's the man for his time'n place, he fits right in there--and that's the Dude, in Los Angeles...and even if he's a lazy man, and the Dude was certainly that--quite possibly the laziest in Los Angeles County....which would place him high in the runnin' for laziest worldwide--but sometimes there's a man. . . sometimes there's a man.
What would you do with this list? Leaders in Long-Term Debt/Equity (mrq) DELTA FINL CORP [DFC] 29.07 IMPAC MTG HLDGS INC [IMH] 24.59 HOMEBANC CORP [HMB] 21.79 ALESCO FINANCIAL INC [AFN] 21.43 THORNBURG MTG INC [TMA] 16.46 ACCREDITED HOME LE [LEND] 14.12 NEW YORK MORTGAGE T [NTR] 8.40 LUMINENT MTG CAP INC [LUM] 8.35 NOVASTAR FINANCIAL, INC. [NFI] 7.12 COUNTRYWIDE FNL CP [CFC] 5.40
I hope so man. I took a 4k loss on that man. Then they did a 4-1 reverse split and got out before more damage done. I thought a takeover was coming or merger but they did some other bullshit deal. It hurt man like most my trades this year. Supposedely its off the REG SHO list I lose out on a dividend but I hope they go bankrupt now.
You guys aren't being creative enough. Get ahead of the game. The time to short the subprime lenders was when the homebuilders were getting hammered in 2006. The time to short the alt-A lenders was when the subprimes were getting roached in March. The time to short the mortgage insurers was when the alt-A lenders were getting nailed in June. All the stuff you guys are talking about, the easy money has already been made. Go ahead and short them if you want, I'm still short CFC, PMI and MTG, but it's not a particularly high percentage trade anymore. Dead cats can still bounce. In my opinion, if you want to short next week's news rather than last week's news, you have to go for quality. Short FNM. Everyone thinks Fannie Mae is safe as houses because the mortgage paper is backed by the Feds. But that doesn't do shit for the stockholders. Congress may bail out the paper but there's no way in hell they'd use taxpayer dollars to bail out equity. Especially not a Democratic Congress. Fannie Mae is a house of cards. They haven't reported financials since 2005. By the time they get around to it, who knows if they'll even be solvent. If they were a normal corporation they'd be trading in single digits by now. God only knows why a market that's willing to mark down any company that so much as breathes the word "mortgage" has given them a pass for so long. Well, sooner or later they're going to be taken out behind the woodshed too. Martin