The New Trend Channel for the Total Market

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by michaelscott, Apr 11, 2007.

  1. As you can see, previously the total market was riding up in one trend channel divided into two compartments. The width of the channel was 8-9%. When the market went to the top of that channel then it could be reasonably expected that a correction was soon to come.

    In November of 2006, you can see where the market became nervous as it touched the pre-existing trend channel. It retreated for a short period, but then came back to pierce through the roof of the channel.

    Then the correction came in Feb 2007 where the price fell to the upper level of the old channel.

    My thesis is that the price had made a triple top/bottom in the old channel and decided to break the old resistance point. A new channel has been born. When the price of the total market hits the top of the new channel, then we can reasonably expect a correction in the future. Future corrections will be to the bottom of upper compartment of the old channel.

    The new channel is a little bit narrower then the old one. Future corrections in this channel thus will not be as severe or climatic as in the old one. Prices will not fall as far.
  2. Perhaps. You could also look at the last five weeks as a bear flag.
  3. Perfect rising wedge IMHO