The New Soviet Union - Surprise, Surprise...

Discussion in 'Economics' started by SouthAmerica, Aug 5, 2008.

  1. .

    August 5, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Remember when the Soviet Union had a complete economic collapse about 20 years ago?

    Today, as the United States decline economically and in prestige around the world a New Soviet Union rises from the ashes of the old Soviet Empire.

    Putin is reviving the Soviet Union and he is going to try to reconnect with its old allies.

    And Americans were worried about Hugo Chavez.

    I guess now the New Soviet Union will have 2 allies on the United States turf – Cuba and Venezuela.

    Surprise, surprise….


    Russia: Putin Says Moscow to Restore Ties With Cuba
    Published: August 5, 2008
    The New York Times

    Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin said Monday that Russia should begin rekindling ties with Cuba, more than a decade and a half after the collapse of the Soviet Union forced Moscow to retract the economic aid that helped sustain the island for some 30 years.

    “We will restore our position in Cuba and other countries,” Mr. Putin said at a meeting of cabinet ministers in remarks published on Russia’s government Web site. There has been speculation in the Russian news media that the Kremlin might seek to deploy military hardware in Cuba in response to Washington’s plans to build elements of a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. The Russian Defense Ministry has denied the reports.


    You can read the entire story at Folha de Sao Paulo as follows:

    04/08/2008 - 20h47
    Premiê Vladimir Putin quer restaurar influência russa em Cuba
    Folha Online

    O premiê russo, Vladimir Putin, quer que a Rússia restabeleça sua posição de influência em Cuba, aliada durante a Guerra Fria, segundo informações da imprensa russa desta segunda-feira.

    A declaração surge em meio a persistentes especulações de que Moscou quer uma presença militar no país caribenho, a 150 km dos EUA, em resposta aos planos americanos de instalar componentes de um escudo antimísseis na Polônia e na República Tcheca.

    "Nós devemos restaurar nossa posição em Cuba e em outros países", disse Putin, citado pela agência de notícias russa Interfax. Putin foi presidente da Rússia entre 2000 e 2008, sendo sucedido por seu próprio candidato, Dmitri Medvedev.

    Putin falou nesta segunda ao ouvir um relatório sobre a viagem recente de uma delegação russa a Cuba. O vice-premiê Igor Sechin, entre outros, se reuniu com a liderança cubana e discutiu uma série de projetos de cooperação.

    "Nós concordamos na prioridade da direção da cooperação --energia, mineração, agricultura, transporte, saúde e comunicações", declarou Sechin, segundo a agência RIA-Novosti.
    Nova crise

    Assuntos militares não foram mencionados nos relatórios. Mas a RIA-Novosti citou um influente analista militar e ex-autoridade de Defesa que afirmou que a Rússia pode realizar um retorno militar a Cuba.

    "Não é segredo que o Ocidente está criando uma 'zona tampão' em volta da Rússia, envolvendo países na Europa central, no Cáucaso, os países dos Balcãs e a Ucrânia", afirmou Leonid Ivashov, chefe da Academia de Problemas Geopolíticos. "Em reposta, podemos aumentar nossa presença no exterior, inclusive em Cuba."

    A Rússia se opõe aos planos americanos de instalar componentes do sistema antimísseis, afirmando que eles visam diminuir o potencial dos mísseis russos. Moscou já ameaçou dar uma resposta "técnico-militar", sem entrar em detalhes, se Washington levar seus planos adiante.

    No mês passado, o Ministério da Defesa negou uma matéria de um dos principais jornais russos, segundo a qual o país estaria considerando colocar bombardeiros com capacidade nuclear em Cuba --medida que lembraria a Crise dos Mísseis, de 1962.

    Mísseis nucleares soviéticos posicionados em Cuba no auge da Guerra Fria deixaram o mundo na iminência de um conflito nuclear, em 22 de outubro de 1962, após o então presidente dos EUA John F. Kennedy anunciar o fato à comunidade internacional.

    Após uma semana de tensas negociações, o líder soviético Nikita Khrushchev retirou os mísseis da ilha.


  2. 1) Russia and Venezuela will diminish with the price of crude oil.
    2) No hablo portugeso. Traduzca la cuenta a ingles. :cool:
  3. .
    August 5, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Reply to nazzdack

    I am not going to translate the entire article, but basically the article said that Putin just had a meeting on Monday to listen about the results of a recent trip that a Russian delegation made to Cuba to discuss a new era of cooperation between Cuba and the New Soviet Union and the priority of the new cooperation will be in the area of energy, agriculture, transportation, health, communications, and mining.

    One influential analyst also said that they are considering the return of military personal to Cuba. One of the major Russian newspapers said that they are also considering to place in Cuba bombardeiros (these planes that drop bombs) with nuclear capabilities.

    Then they mentioned the crisis of 1962.

    The article also said that Putin is going to reestablish all the old ties with Cuba and other countries.

  4. 80% of Russia's economy is dependent on high energy prices. When they drop so does Russia. And yes they will drop, its inevitable. If supply/demand keeps everything tight, we will switch fuels. Give it 20 years max, and Russia is bankrupt again.

    BTW, except for their excellent MIG's, Russian hardware is no threat. Even those are no match for the new F-22 Raptor which is 20 years ahead of everything else (US won't export these even to our strongest allies) Anyone who thinks Russia would use nukes is in fantasy land.
  5. .
    August 5, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Reply to Jayford

    I don’t agree with your assessment of the new Soviet Union.

    You are making your forecast based on an age long gone. The new Soviet Union is a dictatorship but this time around it will be based on capitalist principles and they are going to develop their country in many ways that the old Soviet Union never did.

    The Soviet Union has a lot of natural resources, reasonable cheap labor, very well educated population, and with a great prospect to develop financial markets and consumer markets in the coming years.

    The Russian people had a taste of capitalist consumer society since the collapse of the old Soviet Union and the Russian people would not allow the new Soviet Union to go back to their old ways.

    There is no going back, but they could move forward and reestablish the old circle of influence and prosper in a new set up like the European Union. The only thing is that they have to work out some new arrangement because in the European Union all the countries are democracies and in the new Soviet arrangement Russia is a dictatorship. They need to figure out a solution for that problem.

    Today Russia and its population are not swamped with debt as the United States and the American people are. Besides Russia can use most of its resources to build the world of tomorrow as the United States sink in the quicksand called Iraq, and Afghanistan. .

  6. GTG


    Another problem with Russia is their declining population. Don't they have one of the most rapidly falling populations in the world? In 20 years there wont' be enough young men in Russia to field an army even a fraction of its current size. The rapidly aging population won't be able to build a new manufacturing/knowledge based economy once the resource extraction economy disappears. "Demographics is destiny"
  7. "The Soviet Union has a lot of natural resources, reasonable cheap labor, very well educated population, and with a great prospect to develop financial markets and consumer markets in the coming years"

    Surely you're joking right? The country has been steadily losing its population for years. Not a healthy sign
  8. yes, they are declining at a rate of 700,000 per year. estimated to be a 20% decline by 2050. This will hammer their economy.

    also, in reaction to SA's latest post, it is true that they are not going back to the age of the USSR. they have supplanted this with an economic system based on extreme corruption. Not capitalism as the rest of the world knows it. It is seen as a government run by crooks.

    And, if it wasn't for the huge inflow of petro dollars, they would still be in the gutter. the education level does not help if you do not use it properly. Look at Ireland. Highly educated for the past century, and in the crapper because of bad gov decisions. Comes along a government that opens up all aspects of biz, and dramatically lowers taxes, and boom, Celtic tiger.

    My point? You need a beneficial government along with the education and resources. Russia has always been a mess, and always will be.
  9. .

    August 7, 2008

    SouthAmerica: Reply to Jayford

    You said the following: "they have supplanted this with an economic system based on extreme corruption. Not capitalism as the rest of the world knows it. It is seen as a government run by crooks."


    I need some further clarification about your statement. Are you talking about the US government or Russia?

    Are you talking about people such as Dickhead Cheney and Hilliburton, or the people who engineered the sub prime global scam?

    How the Russian crooks stack up against the American crooks?

    If you had completed your sentence by saying: "by crooks and incompetent idiots" then I would know that you were referring to the current crew in Washington.

    I doubt the Russian gangsters can manage to have a worse performance in Russia in the coming years than the performance that the Bush administration has had in the last 8 years. And the Bush administration has the record to prove it and to back them up.

    At this point I am not sure whom has been worse in the last 8 years the bush administration in the United States or the Roberto Mugabe administration in Zimbabwe since they have been running neck a neck to the finish line.


  10. Not much there.

    Russians, and anyone else will have much difficulty supplanting the US as a primary economic power.

    Russian economic "might" is simply because of commodities. Like everything else, commodities will eventually correct, so will the Russian economy.

    Apart from Moscow, much of Russia is in the stone age, albeit with running water and some electricity.

    The bureaucracy is corrupt, and at best inept.

    The commodity based economy is in the hands of a few well connected members of the mafioso.

    The average Russian is not very bright and drinks like a fish.

    Without high prices for its commodities, russia doesn't have much going for it.
    #10     Aug 7, 2008