Hello to All. I want to say, that i have detect the following very interesting Article: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=0,0 . Kind Regards, George Kanellopoulos.
Bread in North America has gone up a LOT more than from $2 to $2.10. By my reckoning, the bottom end stuff (eg Wonderbread) is not far from double what it cost 5-10 years ago. Ditto for all kinds of other products - eg eggs are tremendously more expensive than they were back in the day. Ironically, the good stuff hasn't increased in price nearly as much, making it increasingly attractive. Granted my situation is not completely mainstream, but regardless, I get my completely organic free range eggs for barely more than 30% of the megamarket price for generic factory eggs. While I believe the article underplays the impact on Americans, I do agree with the premise that the impact is far, far worse in many other places on this planet. IMO we are feeling the pre-shocks of a tremendous looming disaster - personally I fully expect total human population to meaningfully decline over the next 20 years.
Yes, this why Egypt went down. And they seem intent on printing again. So more strain will be felt. They have been doing some dirty raids in the grains, and flat out lying in reports. One customer is in quite a pickle and that is China.
Thanks George, that is a very informative and interesting article, especially the part about Korea bypassing the market. But it's hard to get farmers to sell at anything but the last price. Sometimes I think the only thing that keeps them from complete mental breakdown is the hope that prices will go higher. If you know in the spring how it's all going to turn out, that kind of takes the adventure out of it. Nothing left after that but just worries about cost and weather.
Another reason to trade a technical model designed for spreads, and shitcan the fundamental approach ( if you are one of the few fundamental traders with an intact trading account this year ). An ugly year for the fundamentalists.
yeah Random, I just started eating eggs again, it's hard to find good ones at any price. We have a screwy law here where you can't just sell eggs in your front yard like you can with vegetables. I know how free range broilers are raised, but I don't know how they do it for layers. It doesn't take much to keep a hen (which is all I'd need.)
Oldtime, I took 300 tics out of that Sept-Dec Heating Oil Spread I told you about last month - and you are still calculating basis and carry.
to be honest with you, I don't think I've ever made money on a calendar spread. But that may be because I don't know what I'm doing. The one thing I do know is (and it was the first thing I learned), Never spread a loss.