No You were actually correct! There are two terms here....realized and Unrealized...when first entering... the UNREALIZED will be negative and on weekends when the spreads widen it gets extreme...(this is why I add to or tp at 65% of the deviation, because the max DD is not real on the weekends as it is only temporary and skews the extreme) Folks do not get depressed if you do not understand my comments...just skip over them for now. Just remember, do nothing, just sit and collect interest. Understand I am trying to talk to ALL the different levels of traders, as this is a new and unique system to explain, illustrate and make money with. There will be naysayers and folks that just cannot trade like this, which is good! I believe the holy grail is to discover how you can trade and feel fullfillment. I have a bad habit of late edits...please re-read the entire thread!
Bitstream... I know this sounds crazy....no stops...never a losing day...The realized only goes one direction up...up...up... It's the Unrealized we play with, through exposure. I max out 50:1 leverage. Michael B.
Then it could depends how long you want to carry those positions and if those losses will increase. Regardless at least 30% of those positions have a good chance of turning around. Usually that's the statistical number of my trades that were or could have been closed with profits after going against me not significantly.
Bitstream, Nope...these are all hedging each other...while collecting interest, thus each day that goes by places time on our side...remember unrealized is the enemy but alas it is unreaLIZED, while the realized grows stronger day by day, thus putting a counter- weight on the unrealized ball and chain... Michael B.
electric, thanks for posting. it seems you are trying to hedge via combining pairs and your primary rate of return is the interest. This system is very interesting to me because combined with directional trading perhaps it can be better (ie. right now it shows a positive return because its based on the interest accumulated not the trade). Are you concerned about Nasim Taleb's Black Swans, ie how does this system perform in a currency crisis? If I understand correctly, this is something like pairs trading except instead of 'counting' on the pairs to resync, you are counting on the interest paid to overcome the swings in the trade equity, thus you buy when its overbought/oversold. However, if a black swan does occur, how would you deal with this. I bring this up because its kind of like selling naked calls, you make money 90% of the time but its that one trade that destoys all your equity. Thanks for posting an informative and interesting post!
empee, Correction: Actually last month the tp's were greater than the interest earned.. See cells J13 and M44 in the first spreadsheet tab titled Cash & Carry. and by the way, Thanks for your kind words and interest (interest get it ) Michael B. P.S. empee, you are thinking correctly however, by placing interest first, with the bonus of tp second...thanks
Folks, slow down...lots of late edits...re-read. don't rag on me...It's a bad habit, I can't shake it...don't worry this forum only gives me one hour to play.. Michael B.