Yeah, but Nikkei is still > 50% below its peak over 20 years ago with a central bank determined to be the next Weimar/Zimbabwe. Long Nikkei, Short Yen, Short JGB!?
and you call yourself sellindex I'm not talking about 2009 dip. I'm talking about the market at this moment. DJI makes all time high, but without the true fundamental catalyst to support it like in the 1950 decade was reconstructions from the war; 1960-1970s it was automobile, 1980 decade was telecom (cable companies), 1990 decade the arrival of Internet, semiconductor,... real material wealth was created in these bull markets, but this bull market is pumped up by the FED with their quantitative easings. Check out the FED balance sheet now. it hits all time high today $3.2 trillions; this bull is crack-addicted to the FED QEs; who is going to pay all these debts? the future generations and the savers. Bernanke should be tried for treason for committing economical crime. Bernanke doesn't have the magic wand. In the depression era, jobs were created from bottom up approach. Bernanke goes top-down. as a result, there's no real jobs created. also there was no manufacturing jobs created in Apr report, actually it came in as a loss; company revenues are down. Sequestration hasn't taken effect yet. and let's see what markets will react when the FED squeezes on the "crack" supply line. this bull will sign in the rehab in no time. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
You sound like Jim Rogers LOL Everything you have written is correct. However, there are 2 facts that are more important than everything you wrote taken together for short term trading: 1) Never fight the fed 2) This bull post 2009 and including the current market has been re-inflation as per the fed. Fair enough. But if you think money printing is any less effective than post war construction boom etc. you sadly don't understand the power of money printing. If the whole thing collapses 4 years down the line, fine short then. But shorting S&P now for anything more than 5-10% correction is not recommended. Rather getting long on every 2-4% retraces is a solid strategy that will make you rich!
They are not Zimbabwe yet and Nikkei P/E already around 30 yen devaluation won't make profits better as raw materials cost will increase exponentially This bubble should pop this year
Wow just about a half hour after I posted this, this appeared on cnbc http://www.cnbc.com/id/100737497 Nikkei Getting 'Bubbly,' Correction Coming: Mr Yen Published: Tuesday, 14 May 2013 | 10:35 PM ET By: Ansuya Harjani Assistant Producer, CNBC Asia Mr. Yen: See 'Bubbly' Movement in Nikkei Eisuke Sakakibara, Professor of Aoyama Gakuin University and Former Vice Finance Minister of Japan says Japan will achieve 2 to 2.5% real growth, while dollar-yen will turn around from 105. Japanese equities have risen a "bit too fast" and appear to be somewhat "bubbly," according to the former vice finance minister of Japan, Eisuke Sakakibara, as the Nikkei crossed the key 15,000 level for the first time since 2008 on Wednesday. "The movement of equity prices seems to be somewhat bubbly - there will be some corrections in the equity market in the months to come probably by the summer," Sakakibara told CNBC Asia's "Squawk Box" when asked about the negative consequences of "Abenomics" - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's aggressive policies to reflate the economy. He added, "But this kind of correction is healthy. With some correction it will again start to move upwards." Japan is the world's top performing equity market this year - rising 45 percent since the start of 2013 - dwarfing gains on U.S. markets which have risen about 16 percent year to date. The market has benefited from robust foreign inflows as investors turned optimistic that weakness in the yen would provide a boost to corporate profitability. Discussing his views on continued weakening of the yen, Sakakibara - who is known as 'Mr Yen' for his efforts to influence the currency's exchange rate through verbal and official intervention in the late 1990s - said the depreciation that has taken place thus far is positive, but added it would be undesirable for dollar-yen to rise to 110-115. "Some depreciation of the currency is desirable, and so far so good. If the depreciation stops around 105 it will not create a major problem for the Japanese economy," he said, noting that he expects the dollar-yen to trade in a range of 95-105 in the coming months. Eisuke Sakakibara, professor at Waseda University and former vice minister of Japan Dollar-yen, which crossed the key psychological barrier of 100 last week, has risen almost 18 percent this year. Weakness in the yen is a doubled edged sword for the economy, while it boosts the competitiveness of Japanese exports, it also increases the cost of the country's fuel imports. Japan's dependence on fuel imports has increased after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011, which led to the closure of most of the country's reactors. Volatile Bond Market Japan's radical monetary policies, with the Bank of Japan pledging to pump in $1.4 trillion into the economy, have resulted in a lot of volatility in the country's bond market, however Sakakibara said this does not worry him. "Security dealers haven't been accustomed to these kinds of aggressive moves on the part of the Bank of Japan and it will eventually settle down. They will get used to the new regime in Japanese monetary policy." Japan Government Bond (JGB) yields rose 4.5 basis points to 0.9 percent on Wednesday, its highest level since April 2012 as further yen deprecation encourages investors to sell bonds for higher yielding assets. "If JGB yields go up too high that's a problem, but I think it could be controlled. JGB market is a market for Japanese investors and Bank of Japan has a lot of influence on that market. I'm not particularly worried."
45% YTD WOW WOW WOW its unstoppable!!!!! Gaining on average close to 10% a month since January 2013, thats infuckingcredible!!!! But whats that I notice???????????? WHAT????? PUMP $1.4 TRILLION into the economy????? PUMP $1.4 TRILLION into the economy????? EXACTLY right, why the fuck doesnt anyone comprehend that this entire global market place is being pumped up with TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS of dollars! Doesnt anyone have a clue what is happening, how long can these markets around the world sustain such a situation where the markets are "PUMPED" with money! I thought the dot com and housing bubble was bad, whewwww fuck no this is taking it to a whole other level, people laughed at me in 2005 and 2006 when I said housing prices were going to collapse, here we are in 2013 and the same thing is happening again, the same thing with cheap money flowing, historical low rates and all the money pumping they can do, how can this end well, history is repeating itself once again.....
you are right when you say REAL material wealth was created in the 50's 60's 70's 80's and 90's, I agree and I would agree today the same way however in the last 20 years every bull market has been created on debt and asset bubbles and thats what everyone is failing to understand.... I think the last I read the feds balance sheet was up to $3.3 Trillion, but what does it matter, right? As long as equities are moving higher and wealth is being created for the top 1% of the nation why even question it....
Someone must be reading my posts on here....what this article says is exactly what I have been talking and writing about for months. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100735821 Just posted on 5/15/13
what I meant by "real wealth" in the post were the tangible physical things and its by-products created during those decades of growth such as automobiles, reconstruction of Europe after the war, US highway system, cars, auto parts, car services, car insurance, telecom infrastructure, computers, servers, routers, computer chips, ,etc... and personal wealth was also created in the process... nowadays, growth in US has reached the saturation limit I think, the FED has pumped liquidity into the econ, banks got cheap money , but don't have anywhere to invest in large scale. as you can see, economic activities are down, but stock markets are going up. Empire State Manufacturing down -1.45 Apr Industrial Production is down -0.5% Mortgage Application -7.3% Someone said "don't fight the FED" <= as you've seen in the past 10 years, this lazy maneuver has lost its magic. "An overachieving sunspot on the surface of the sun unleashed its fourth major solar flare in two days late Tuesday, a solar storm that may deal Earth a glancing blow, space weather experts say." Also, pluto is about to align with Uranus, so watch out for this event bulls, sh!t about to hit the fans!