The New Bull Market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Wallace, May 13, 2013.

  1. This is late coming and tho there's been a few posts related to the New Bull Market
    no one seems to have trashed the 'Triple Top' theory that never happened.
    Perhaps like me you were sucked into believing the end-of-the-world was at hand —
    not so.

    The Major Buy was way back in March 2009 , and regardless of the talk back then of
    a triple top to come, more than 7,700 points of profit would have to accumulate before
    the DJIA reached that triple top point, and for the S&P 500 , about 909 points or in terms
    of the profit trading one ES contract - a mere $45,500 for a straight Buy&Hold until the
    week of April 26 2013 when the S&P finally broke free of that triple top fear that the
    DJIA had already broken some six weeks earlier.

    Between 1999 and 2009 a massive market correction occurred that beginning in 2009
    started the next leg up of the New Bull Market. If you haven't got that yet get it now
    because when people talk about the Dow going into the 20,000s and the S&P breaking
    2,100 , 2,500 , 2,700 , they're right.

    Oh and the 'economy', 'employment' and 'QE' yada yada yada
    Slowly rising interest rates may do some good; at some point the potential profits to
    be obtained from lending will cause banks' greed to overcome their past miserly
    behaviour toward all those loan applicants they'd previously rejected. This change
    should move lending from an easing to a gush of 'please, take the money' which in
    turn will boost the economy and employment which will begin to catch up with what
    the markets have been doing for the past FIVE years.
  2. you could be right but where are the jobs that are going to drive the sales growth of companies? the monthly jobs report are mostly 10 dollar an hour jobs. i think this is were people are getting confused now. the wall st people are screaming buy buy buy but on the other hand they are scared of QE ending. its hard to figure out that's for sure
  3. How do you know the jobs are $10/hr?

    I own several businesses in addition to trading. I have been steadily adding people and way above $10/hr.. I will also point out, the demand I see now is the strongest since 2007.
  4. "Service jobs boom: The strongest job growth in April came from restaurants and bars, which added 38,000 jobs; temporary services, which added 31,000 jobs; and retailers, which added 29,000 jobs."

  5. i will say the futures are up again now and the market never goes down so i might be very wrong haha

  6. i'm not saying you are wrong. just saying after a bust like we saw , the government has to do all it can to move the cycle to boom. once it booms for a while, then bust comes..hopefully not as bad as this last one. you must remember the s&l crisis? its all boom and bust. in this case we have not boomed yet..only getting a footing to do so...but it will do so before we bust again..thats my experience and opinion.
  7. brokenboy has a point there! back in the late 1990's bull market, job creation was strong with the real jobs (400K/ month), even or 2007 bull market, job creation was also strong.

    by those standards, today job creation has been pathetic. the job quality also sucks. Mostly in service sector and part time jobs. The administration keeps bragging about the unemployment rate is dropping, yeah, it accounts for those who are currently filing, but they forget including those with long term unemployment problem. The real unemployment rate in the US is higher than the government reports. According to CNBC, the real jobless rate in most states is still above 10%.

    cost of Obama healthcare and high corporate tax rate will increase the cost of doing business in the US. I don't see the real catalyst in the US economy to take this market higher.

    US as a nation carries a lot of debts, from government agencies (federal, state) to private companies (majority of SP500 companies have debt), to personnel level ($1 trillion student loans is also a time bomb) + $846.2 billion in credit card debt.... can't grow with a lot of debt burden.
  8. IF, the past unmemployment history repeats itself . . .

    the attached chart of the ' US: Average Duration of Unemployment ' shows that the
    unemployment peaked a couple of years ago - we know, the rate is declining
    what's also interesting are the rising peaks begining in 1969 , what contributed to the
    increase in duration ?

    more importantly, the lower chart shows the 1982 peak unemployment — higher then
    than the 2009 rate, when the DJIA finally broke above the 1,000 level and kept going
    in November 1982 , the start of a total 14,000 point rally reached in 2007 .
    For the S&P, the rally began at 102 in August 1982 , continuing up for 1,448 points till
    2000 , and again the similar high at 1,550 in 2007 .

    IF, the past umemployment history repeats itself . . .
  9. there is a big problem with your theory ; this bull market had the same leader as in the previous one, and they are way up in the stratosphere (price wise). This is not a "new" bull.
  10. like i said..all true..but countless guys have used the exact same points since march 2009. (as i have said..i have traded many crashes before this)...yet the market has gone up multifold.

    my argument has always been..despite the stats ...the gov't has to re inflate. that trumps all the stats you guys point out. guys around here who know me are aware i have had this bias since the lows..and it has paid me well (i may add..better than them). of course this may be the top; but i am not closing longs..yet.
    #10     May 14, 2013