Mr. Birinyi is predicting s$p 1700 in 2-3 years.... Yardeni looking for 20% gain by end of 2009, talk about a melt up, got to love it. There outlook is just extremely bullish going forward. <object id="cnbcplayer" height="380" width="400" classid="clsid27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" > <param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"/> <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/> <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/> <param name="quality" value="best"/> <param name="scale" value="noscale" /> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"/> <param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"/> <param name="salign" value="lt"/> <param name="movie" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1213428476/code/cnbcplayershare"/> <embed name="cnbcplayer" PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" height="380" width="400" quality="best" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" salign="lt" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1213428476/code/cnbcplayershare" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" /> </object>
I am a fan of Yardeni and have been a subscriber to his research for years, but, he is a trend follower. He didn't see last year's meltdown coming, just as sure as he doesn't see this year's false rally. I've noticed that a lot of advisers are on the bandwagon for a melt up to 1200 s&p. The problem is, they are number crunchers. They don't go out into the real economy and see what's right in front of us. Prime borrowers are underwater massively, and soon we will see massive defaults on the loans that really matter within the next 3 months. None of this bank pumping is going to the real economy. Unless banks start reducing principle en masse, or working out loans with borrowers, we haven't seen anything yet. There are two scenarios. Either we get another banking crisis, or the dollar collapses as the Fed prints massive dollars for the next round of defaults. I think the latter is coming, but we will first see a taste of the former very soon.
Lazlo doesn't lead. He's back of the pack. baaaa! baaaa! baaaaaaa!!! Black sheep, black sheep, have you any wool? Yes sir, yes sir, three bales full. Black swan, black swan, have you any viewers? No sir, no sir...okay, maybe someone who looks like Taleb, but Abby Joseph Cohen hitched a ride in my cab today, and didn't notice my face (she's a shitty tipper, too).
I,m tired of these lieing wrong way clowns as they never get called to the carpet for being wrong. here's a little article i kep from dec 1st from laszlo birinyo saying the s@p would never see it nov lows of 750 again. well he was wrong as hell and he's still making millions a year and is on tv all the time. i'm 100% convinced sometime in 2010 we see s@p 500 or below and we then go sideways for years and finally after 30 years of mass speculation people throw up there funds and capitulate. U.S. Stock Market âBottomedâ Last Month, Birinyi Says (Update2) Share | Email | Print | A A A By Elizabeth Stanton and Eric Martin Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The plunge in U.S. stocks that pushed the Standard & Poorâs 500 Index down 49 percent to an 11-year low last month may be over, according to Birinyi Associates Inc., Bespoke Investment Group and UBS AG. âThe market will not again visit 750 on the S&P,â Laszlo Birinyi, who predicted the rout in financial stocks, wrote in a report today titled âThe Stock Market Has Bottomed.â While he said that doesnât mean the benchmark index for American equities is poised to rally, researchers at Bespoke and UBS said it may. The S&P 500 might climb 17 percent in the next three months, based on the eight five-day rallies that were bigger than the 19 percent advance completed on Nov. 28, Bespoke wrote in a report. The S&P 500 rose 5.6 percent on average in the next month and 17 percent in the next three months, according to Bespoke, whose founders, Justin Walters and Paul Hickey, once worked at Birinyi.
Agree, the market might rally 10%, 15% maybe even 30% higher, however sustained economic growth going 5, 10 even 20 years out is not going to happen unless another asset bubble is formed. How are we going to create jobs and keep gdp growing at 3-4%, our global economy has experienced the biggest credit expansion in history over the last 10-20 years followed by the biggest credit crisis in history and here we have people saying our world economy is back on track to experience the same type of growth that we had just 1-2 years ago, come on, please tell me where the catalyst is for this type of growth going forward. All we have is government intervention propping up global markets and economies, remember that wont last forever.