When Colts had that 10 point lead with 10 to play I said this games going to OT. Dam I was wrong: Pats last three drives where TD, TD and game winning first down. While no doubt Petyon Manning is best QB in NFL, the new big three WR (Moss/Stallworth/Walker) were the deciding factor. With Manning having no WR to throw to at end of game he looked bad. Both my picks N.E. -5 and Skins -3&1/2 were both losers. Goes to show tough to lay points in the NFL.
The killer for the Pats was that 70+ yard catch and run by Addai. Take that away and they cover easily. Lot of terrific performances by RB's yesterday. The Vike's Adrian Peterson ran for an incredible 296 yards on 30 carries, an NFL record. He also tallied three TD's. He generated more rushing yardage in one game than a lot of teams do in three. Clinton Portis of the Redskins, who has looked a bit slow and unexplosive the last two seasons, managed 196 yards on 36 carries. Marshawn Lynch of the Bills gained 153 yards on 29 carries. Six other backs produced 100 yard days, including Joseph Addai against the mighty Pats. He also had that dazzling catch and run for a TD of 79 yards.
My god...what is with those Pittsburgh throwbacks? Those thing are hideous. Almost, but not quite as bad as the Philly throwbacks.
Time to look over this week's games. Two games, Jacksonville at Tenn and Denver at KC, are off the board for some reason, probably an unresolved injury situation. I'm taking my cue this week from the stock market. The biggest priority is always to protect capital. I'm tempted by several games this week, but nothing jumps out at me so strongly that I am willing to go on the line for it. The ones that tempt me: I consider Buffalo a dark horse, underappreciated team, but this week they are facing one of the league's worst teams, the Dolphins. The Bills have offered good value to bettors recently, but they are giving 3 here playing in Miami. I would like to stick with the Bills, but winning on the road is hard for elite teams, and Buffalo is not in that category. This may be Miami's best chance to win a game. Too many yellow lights flashing, so avoid. Pittsburg hosts red hot Cleveland and is a 9 1/2 point favorite. Sounds like a lot, but look what happened to Baltimore. Can't go against the Browns either, so I'll pass. Arizona is at home against surprising Detroit and is a 1 point favorite. Similar to the Buffalo/Miami game, I think Detroit wins but I don't like taking them on the road. They're not the Pats, and the Cards handed the Steelers a big loss in Arizona earlier. The Colts visit SD and are 3 1/2 point favorites. I don't see SD keeping it too close, so I like the Colts giving the points. SD is not a terrible team however, merely an inconsistent one and the Colts could experience the post-Pats letdown. So have to pass. Seattle is a 10 1/2 point favorite at home against SF. Probably the best value on the board here giving the points. The Seahawks blew out SF earlier in SF, but Seattle did manage to blow a lead and the game against Cleveland last week. Tempting but I'll pass on this one too.
I'm not sure about the Colts injury situation. Marvin Harrison has been out for a while and Dallas Clark was reported with a concussion. 3 1/2 on the road against a good team is not the layup it might seem, but if I had to bet this weekend, this would be my second choice after Seattle.
AAA - thoughts on the skins game? I like giving the 3 at home to philly. After watching them last week, they are not a very good team. And of course I like the cowboys to cover 1-1/2 at NYG, but my opinion is biased, I like the boys every week.
Good questions. I like giving the points with the Skins better than taking them, but they have had two games that didn't come down to the last play. They scare me. They have trouble scoring and are so conservative they will try to sit on any lead. This is a team that could as easily be 1-7 as it could be 7-1. And 7-1 could have easily happened. Two losses came when they couldn't score from the 1 yard line against the Giants as time expired, and against GB when Santana Moss fumbled on an end around and the Packers picked it up and ran it into the endzone. Philly is a real question mark. McNabb is under a lot of pressure and may be on the way out. Reid has family issues. Their receivers aren't very good. But good coaching staffs have been able to figure out the Skins and outplay them in the second half. The Giants did it, Philly did it to an extent in the first game, NE did it, Arizona did it. So I don't know what to expect. When in doubt, stay out. I actually like the Cowboys a lot against the Giants, but I have to respect the way the Giants have played beginning the second half of the Redskins game. They have weapons, and I'm not sure the Cowboys can stop them. So it could boil down to a shootout, and Romo has had some issues turning the ball over. Just too many moving parts for me.