Two teams I didn't mention that I should have are the Bills and 49ers. The Bills traveled to TB after a tough Monday night loss in foxboro, and left with a solid 33-20 win. This one had all the elements lined up for them to crash, not least is a northern team playing in the hot florida sun. TB is not a playoff team, but they are not pushovers either. So good job bills. Dick Jauron is making a strong push to retain his job, with two impressive outtings. The Niners played host to a Seahawks team that blew out hapless St. L in the opener. Sf took the opportunity to make this a statement game, backing up its win over Arizona last week with a thorough physical beatdown of the Seahawks. The Seattle defense avoided Frank Gore like he was a homeless guy looking for spare change. He ran through pretty much their entire unit twice on long TD runs of 79 and 80 yards and tallied over 200 on the day. No one is taking SF lightly from here on, that's for sure.
There are still a few reliable ones. I have about 10 outs these days, as opposed to a few dozen years ago. There are a few good gambling watchdog sites where the slow pay books get called out.
Are 5Dimes and Bet Jam still good? I used to use Betfair a lot for "in game" betting. But you have to be a bit sneaky with them since they don't accept American customers. And I hear Matchbook has come along quite well but I haven't used them.
This week's lines. Not seeing anything too interesting at first glance. NFL Lines For Week 3 - NFL Football Line Week Three NFL Line 9/27 - 9/28, 2009 Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total 9/27 1:00 ET At NY Jets -2.5 Tennessee 37 9/27 1:00 ET At Houston -4 Jacksonville 46.5 9/27 1:00 ET At Philadelphia -9.5 Kansas City 42.5 9/27 1:00 ET At Baltimore -13.5 Cleveland 38.5 9/27 1:00 ET NY Giants -7 At Tampa Bay 44 9/27 1:00 ET Washington -6.5 At Detroit 38.5 9/27 1:00 ET Green Bay -6.5 At St. Louis 41 9/27 1:00 ET At Minnesota -6.5 San Francisco 40.5 9/27 1:00 ET At New England -4 Atlanta 44.5 9/27 4:05 ET Chicago -2.5 At Seattle 37 9/27 4:05 ET New Orleans -5.5 At Buffalo 53 9/27 4:15 ET At San Diego -6.5* Miami 42* 9/27 4:15 ET Pittsburgh -4.5 At Cincinnati 37 9/27 4:15 ET At Oakland -1 Denver 36 9/27 8:20 ET At Arizona -1 Indianapolis 47 Monday Night Football Line 9/28 8:35 ET At Dallas -9.5 Carolina 46 * = Last available line. Currently off due to Monday night play. Number may differ when game back on.
Let's run through the games quickly. Tenn at Jets(-2.5). Must win game for 0-2 Tenn against a Jets squad that has been impressive in two wins. Can't go against Jeff Fisher in this situation but after last week's stinker, can't go with them either. Avoid. Jacksonville at Houston(-4). Which Houston squad shows up, the one that was abused by the Jets or the one that beat Tenn at home? Impossible to say. Avoid. KC at Philly(-9.5). Iggles face a somewhat easier test after getting scorched by NO last week. Kolb threw for over 300 yards but three picks were costly. Too many points to give with backup QB, so avoid. Cleveland at Baltimore(-13.5). Cleveland sucks on both sides of the ball, and the Ravens have added some offensive punch to go with their always formidable defense. They have been lucky two weeks in a row though, so no way I trust them giving this much, avoid. Giants(-7) at TB. If you're desperate for action this weekend, this might be one to look at. Giants are as good as any team in either conference, TB is rebuilding. Giants coming off big win in dallas though and may be ripe for a letdown. Florida heat can be brutal as well. I might change my mind and revisit this one but right now I can't get comfortable with it. Avoid. Washington(-6.5) at Detroit. Interesting game. Lions have lost 19 staight at home and see this as their best chance to snap that streak. Skins have looked OK at times but seem allergic to the end zone. Their defense is formidable on paper but has struggled with covering receivers and tackling, and I don't like that facing Calvin Johnson. Skins fan are in a surly mood following ugly 9-7 win over St. L at home, and may form lynch mob outside Zorn's home if they lose this one. Make no mistake, Zorn's job is at stake if they lose, maybe not now but at season's end for sure. Skins should cover easily but they are underachievers and you don't lay points on the road with underachievers. Avoid. GB(-6.5) at St. L. Pretty much same setup as Redskins/Detroit game. Underachievers against terrible team at home. Packer offensive line made Cincy defense look like the '85 Bears of Iron Mike Dikta as they sacked Rodgers six times. He will not last the season taking this kind of punishment, but this game should be a bit of a vacation for him. Still, Packers underwhelm me, so I'm avoiding. SF at Minn(-6.5). Probably most interesting game of the week to watch. Minn has slid by two bad teams, largely by running AP relentlessly. Childress is on the hot seat and no doubt feels incredible pressure every week to do anything to win, but AP will be beat up and worn down by december at this rate. But can Brett still be Brett? Can he throw the long ball? He may need to this week against the season's surprise team, the hardnosed, physical 49ers of Coach Mike Singletary. Hard to believe I'm using those terms to describe the Niners, but Coach Mike has put his stamp on this team and no one doubts it, least of all the players. Vikes better buckle their chin straps and make some tackles because Frank Gore will take it to the house if given half a chance. I see a FG deciding this one, but I can't get comfortable with taking the points. If SF falls behind early, their run game is useless and Vikes might cruise. Avoid. Atlanta at New England(-4). Matt Ryan returns to the scene of his college glory days. Tom Brady returns to the scene of his pro glory days. Are they all in the past? Probably not. This one could turn into a shootout, and I like the Pats in that case, just not enough to lay the points after their stinker last week. Avoid. Chicago(-2.5) at Seattle. Up and down Bears face up and down Seahawks. I want to like the Bears a lot here, but Seattle is a tough place to play and the memory of Cutler's four INTs on the road in GB is still in my mind. Avoid. NO(-6) at Buffalo. Oddsmakers giving Bills a lot of respect here. Are the Bills really able to slug it out with the high-flying Saints, who hung 48 on the Iggles last week? I want to lay the points here, even on the road, but I'm concerned about the Saints defense. They gave up a lot of points to Detroit and to a backup QB in Philly. They may not be able to handle the Bills wide receiver duo of Evans and TO. I may want to revisit this one but for now Avoid. Miami at SD(-6). Fish have to go west coast after a monday nighter. Who came up with that schedule? Bolts are a bit of a mystery. Rivers throws for 400 yards and they still lose to the Ravens. They barely beat Oakland. This should be a gift-wrapped win for them, courtesy of schedule makers, but they make me nervous. Avoid. Pittsburg(-4) at Cincy. Looks like a gift spread but Steelers are not themselves without Palamalou. Cincy has a physical defense and may be looking for payback here after years of being Steelers bitch. Steelers stinker against Bears makes me say, avoid. Denver at Oakland(-1). Will no doubt be most boring game of the week. Total coin flip as far as I'm concerned. Avoid. Indy at Arizona(-2). Minn/Sf is game of week for those who like running. This is the game of the week for passing game fans. Too dependent on one or two big plays to warrant taking a position. Avoid. Monday night. Carolina at Dallas(-9.5). Carolina is not as bad as they've looked. Romo is too careless with the ball to lay 9.5. Avoid.
Pittsburgh -4 @ Cincinnati Cinci New Orleans -6 @ Buffalo Saints Washington -6.5 @ Detroit Lions Cinci will either win it outright or only lose by a fg. Until someone proves otherwise, Brees is unstoppable. Lions end their winless streak. Fans riot in the streets of Detroit.
You're giving Cincy a lot of credit. Maybe GB just sucks. If Skins lose at Detroit, Zorn might as well not take the flight back. Just call his wife and tell her to pack up and ship their stuff back to Seattle. What do you think about Giants (-7) at TB? Ravens looked pretty good against Bolts too. Big spread on them though.
Let me say this I would love to spend more time posting here on ET especially in the football section but trading is keeping me swamped right now. Two games that stand out for week #3 are: Jets -2 and I see why USC head coach did not want Sanchez to go pro hey this guyâs good. Jets will run all over that lousy Titan defense. Also love them Seahawks plus points vs Da Bears.
I have the big upset of the week being Detriot, thats right Detriot, over the Deadskins. I got a little dough on Detriot +6.5 but I actually like them to win the game outright.