Very interesting analysis. If I were to quibble with the stats, I'd just say that if a team normally scores 53% of the time from that field position, that includes the browns, etc. I would think that the chance of the colts punching it in were considerably higher. But then the chances of them scoring after a punt would probably be above the league avg of 30% as well.
Well, week ten is in the books and it was quite a week. Two teams, the Skins and Packers, came back from dead to record impressive wins, the Pats and Colts staged an epic battle that fans will debate for months and Cincy established itself as the bad boy of the rough and tumble AFC North. The wild card races were further scrambled as well. The big news was in the NFC with Dallas and Philly losing, GB winning to hang onto an outside chance, and Carolina getting into the conversation with a win over Atlanta, which saw its hopes dim. Over in the AFC, SD put itself squarely in the playoff picture with its big win over the Eagles, and they look like the favorites to win the AFC West now that Denver is on a three game losing streak and looking worse by the week. Jacksonville put itself into contention and hurt the Jets' flickering chances, while Pittsburg is in the lead for one wildcard, provided they keep their card clean the rest of the way. The big game of the week was clearly the NE/Indy clash. What more can we say about it, other than, just like last week, Indy dodged a bullet. Last week it was a missed FG, this week it was the disputed 4th down play. They don't use asterisks in the standings however, so they get the W and a big one it could be down the road when home field advantage is being sorted out. The Philly/SD game could be huge for reasons other than the final tally. Philly RB Brain Westbrook suffered his third concussion of the season after sitting out a week with a concussion and is likely done for the season, possibly for his career. He is one of the great screen pass receivers in the league and will be missed. As for the game, the Iggles settled for FGs on three out of five trips into the red zone. End of story. OK, time to take my medicine, my picks for last week. Can I plead temporary insanity? After all, I did write:"I just realized I am laying points on four road teams. That's not a really smart way to play the betting game, and the last time I did that, in week two I believe, I got my head handed to me." Ok, headed handed to me this time as well, 0-3, with one to go tonight. Looking at the games, I'm still a little amazed at what happened. NO barely slipped by St. Louis, 28-23, as St. Louis fell short on a last gasp drive as time ran out on them. NO didn't help itself with two INTs and suffered yet more injuries on defense. It was the first time in five games the mighty NO offense didn't put 30 in the board. Who would have thought pathetic St. louis would be the one to stop them. St. Louis has an odd distinction this year. They have faced three straight unbeaten teams at home, a first in NFL history. Of course, they got blown out the other two times, against the Colts and Vikes. The Redskins season has been a slow motion disaster, and of course, with Dan Snyder at the controls, it has not lacked for controversy or drama. Denver by contrast was exactly where the Redskins were last year, at 6-2 and riding high with a bright, new coach and lofty expectations. The Redskins hyowever somehow produced their best game of the season, highlighted by solid O line play and a bruising running attack. Denver's chances were ended at the conclusion of the first half, when QB Kyle Orton was injured on a goal line scramble and couldn't return in the second half. Backup Chris Simms was horrid and Denver was blanked in the second half. Dallas has played as well as anyone the last four weeks and GB has alternated between flat, disappointing and horrifying. Yesterday, momentum swapped sides however, as GB delivered a thorough physical beating on both sides of the ball to the Cowboys and won 17-7. Let's hope the Ravens can get something going tonight against Cleveland and save me from a skunking.
Maybe all teams should hire Phd's with laptops crunching numbers to tell them to PUNT THE F^CKING BALL 70-80 YARDS AWAY FROM YOUR ENDZONE DICKHEADS! LOL! GEEZ this isn't rocket science !
The Ravens did come through fo rme last night, or maybe I should say the browns terrible offense saved me, as the Ravens recovered from a sluggish first half and won 16-0. That puts me at 1-3 for the week and 16-11 against the spread for the season. Laying big spreads with road teams has really killed me a couple of weeks. There's a good lesson there for bettors. Stay with your bread and butter plays and don't let boredom or a desire to show what a genius you are tempt you to reach.
NFL Lines For Week 11 - NFL Football Line Week Eleven NFL Line 11/19 - 11/23, 2009 Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total 11/19 8:20 ET At Carolina -3 Miami 43.5 11/22 1:00 ET At Detroit -2.5* Cleveland 39* 11/22 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -8 Buffalo 43 11/22 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -10 At Kansas City 40.5 11/22 1:00 ET At Baltimore -1* Indianapolis 45* 11/22 1:00 ET At NY Giants -6 Atlanta 46 11/22 1:00 ET At Green Bay -6.5 San Francisco 42.5 11/22 1:00 ET At Minnesota -11 Seattle 46 11/22 1:00 ET At Dallas -11 Washington 41.5 11/22 1:00 ET New Orleans -11.5 At Tampa Bay 51 11/22 4:05 ET Arizona -9 At St. Louis 47 11/22 4:15 ET At New England -10.5 NY Jets 45 11/22 4:15 ET Cincinnati -9.5 At Oakland 36 11/22 4:15 ET San Diego -3 At Denver Off 11/22 8:20 ET Philadelphia -3 At Chicago 45 Monday Night Football Line 11/23 8:35 ET At Houston -5 Tennessee 48 * = Last available line. Currently off due to Monday night play. Number may differ when game back on.
Yeah, it wasn't a very good week for most of the games I liked. I'm glad I limited my bets to two games. I haven't looked yet, but I think this is my first net -2 week for the season. 20-13 for the season. Ehh...At least the Colts beat the Patriots and are 5-1 against them in their last 6 meetings (which coincidentally, started not long before the league took away Bill's camcorder).
Week 11 is here and the schedule features several games with big wild card implications as well as a tilt for the AFC West lead. There are a couple of puzzling spreads, plus a game that will go a long way to deciding who gets teh booby prize of the first draft pick next year. On to the games. Miami at Carolina(-3). Jake Delhomme has not turned the ball over the last three games, and the Panthers run game has produced 1000 yards over that period, putting them back into fringe wild card territory at 4-5. Unfortunately, they lost star LT Jordan Gross for the season Sunday with a broken ankle. Miami is also sitting at 4-5 and slipped by TB sunday. These are two very similar teams on offense, with the third(Carolina) and fourth ranked run games in the league versus weak passing attacks. On defense, the Dolphins are number 7 against the run, while the Panthers are number 4 against the pass. I like Carolina here. They should be able to blunt Miami's ground game, and Miami has been vulnerable to the pass. Basically a tossup however and I avoid them. Cleveland at Detroit(-2.5). You have to like the Lions here after the egg the Browns laid last night. Also, their one good player, Josh Cribbs, as hurt and sent to the hospital after the game. Detrorit however lost to St. Louis at home, so they're no lock. Avoid it and be glad it's not your home game on TV. Buffalo at Jacksonville(-8). Too big a spread for an inconsistent Jag squad. Their big win against the Jets had more to do with matchups than talent. Their last home game they beat KC by three points. Buffalo's three wins have all come on the road. Avoid. Pittsburg(-10) at KC. OK, fresh from writing 1000 times on the board "I will not lay big spreads on road teams", no way i touch this one, even though I like it. The Steelers are only 2-2 on the road, with an 8 point win at Detroit and a big win over Denver that suddenly doesn't look so big after the Redskins dominated them. This play has killed me this year, so it's an easy one to Avoid. Indy at Baltimore(-1). This one has the monday night asterisk and I expect it to go to pick'em. After all, Indy is 9-0, even though their last three wins were razor close slide byes. Baltimore is 5-4 but three losses were very close and the other one was by 10 to Cincy. The stats favor Indy. Can the Ravens' 13th ranked pass defense contain Manning and the league's number one pass offense? NE couldn't. I like Indy here, but they could see a letdown after their huge win over NE and there is that home filed thing, so I'm going chicken here and avoiding it. Atlanta at NY Giants(-6). Reeling Giants try to get back on track against an Atlanta unit that has dropped three of its last four. Too many question marks here. Avoid. SF at GB(-6.5). Anyone who watched the horrid Bears at SF game last Thursday has to be thinking seriously about laying the points here, particularly after GB dominated the Cowboys. This is the same SF squad however that lost to Indy by 4 and minnesota by 3, both on the road. So they seem to have a tendency to play up or down to their opponent's level. That could be confusing against a GB squad that came out flat for its big game against the Vikes, stunk against TB, but whipped the Cowboys. Avoid. Seattle at Minnesota(-11). Seattle's closest road game was last week's 11 point loss at arizona. They were blown out by the Niners, Indy and Cowboys on the road. Tough schedule puts them in the Land of Ten Thousand Lakes next. The Vikes have faced easier opposition, including Detroit twice and St. Louis, with their lone loss being at Pittsburg. basically, they have blown out crap teams and been lucky a couple of times against ordinary teams. Seattle is in kind of a gray area between being not quite a crap team but not quite ordinary either. Avoid. Washington at Dallas(-11). Dallas laid an egg in GB and the Redskins produced their best game of the season. If Dallas couldn't move the ball against GB, they may have problems against the Skins defense. The key to the game will be if the Dallas defense can blunt the Redksins suddenly productive ground game. Hard to say but probably they will not be able to, which means the Skins at least have a shot. That makes that 11 point spread way too big. Avoid. NO(-11.5) at TB. See Pittsburg at KC. I love the Saints here, but I'm not making this play anymore. Avoid. Arizona(-9.5) at St. Louis. Basically the same deal. NO couldn't cover a similar spread at St. Louis last week, so no way I go with the Cards. Avoid. NY Jets at NE(-10.5). I'm throwing out NE's first two games, the close win against Buffalo and the loss at the Jets, due to the Brady rustiness factor. They are rolling now, sunday night notwithstanding. They did have a 17 point second half lead before somehow losing. The Jets are losers of five of their last six games, with their lone win being a blowout at Oakland. I worry however that the Jets may have a matchup advantage. They feature the number one rushing attack and the number three defense against the pass. NE is only 17th at run defense and is second at pass offense. If Sanchez can stop turning it over, the Jets are in this game. I like NE a lot here, but I am afraid there might be a carryover from sunday night. Avoid. Cincy(-9.5) at Oakland. Cincy should cruise here. It has played a tough schedule and this one should be a bit of a breather. Philly probably thought that as well before marring its record in Oakland. Just not going to get sucked into this laying points on the road business any more. Avoid. SD at Denver. Off the board, probably due to the Orton injury. We'll see how this develops. SD is playing at a high level, Denver is not after a fast start. Philly(-3) at Chicago. Interesting game. Can Philly make is big play offense work without Westbrook? Can Cutler stink any worse than he did in SF? Two virtually unbettable teams. Avoid. Tennessee at Houston(-5). I got nothing here. Tenneessee seems to have turned things around and has the game's most exciting RB. Houston has the number three pass attack and Tennessee has the 31st ranked pass defense. Tennessee has the number two ranked run offense. Obviously if the Texans get on top early, the Titans could be facing a long day. Avoid. So no picks this week. Gun at the head, I like the Vikes and Pats at home and Indy on the road, but I managed to talk myself out of them all.
I see what you're saying but I already took Indy because I think the line is going to move against me if I wait (it was a pickem). Suggs is probably out, and Indy has owned the Ravens for a long time now. The Ravens had a pretty good team last year that made it to the AFC Championship game and the Colts took it to them 31-3 in week 6. Indy scored 44 points against them the year before and Manning is 6-0 against the Ravens in their last 6 meetings. I'm amazed the Ravens were a favorite at any point.
I agree with you, and I don't think it's a bad bet at all . I thought the line would go to pick'em and you're right, it could go more toward Indy. The thing that bothers me is how Indy has slid by the last three weeks. Not dominant at all, now they are on the road.