"You put 75 yards between Peyton Manning and pay dirt, not 29. " http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8143ec8b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
The ONLY way I could ever see going for it in that position is if it's 4th and inches. If you cant get a few inches then you deserve to lose. But 2 yds, Belichick let his ego decide rather than good coaching.
Isn't the blonde hugging Ben the girl who is accusing Roethlesburger of rape? Steelers fans couldn't find a better picture?
I would have agreed with you before the NFL made the 2-point rule change, but now it adds another dimension to the game.
Manning would have had 2 minutes remaining on the clock and all of his time outs. I'm not saying it was Billicheat's best call ever, but I can see what he was thinking. I mean, they didn't break a sweat moving the ball 30 yards for the go ahead TD. Do you think the extra 40 yards would have made that much of a difference at that point? And I gotta say, as a Colts fan, I was nervous as hell when I saw them going for it on 4th down. Before the play started, I would have much rather seen them punt so Manning was guaranteed one more possession with all his timeouts. It worked out okay in the end though Oh, and the part about strolling into the endzone...I was thinking the same thing, but could you imagine how he would have been crucified if they didn't make it to FG range?
I don't know. I don't care what he says in front of a TV camera. He didn't have confidence in his defense at that point. And after watching the Colts move the ball for the winning TD and for 21 points in the 4th quarter, I have a hard time blaming him.
The Belichick controversy is interesting. I would thnk traders would cut BB some slack. This is the kind of decision we make all the time. Thinking in terms of probabilities is way over the head of the most coaches and commentators. The correct way to make this decision is to compare the odds of making the fourth with the odds of Manning coming down and scoring a game-winning TD. Considering that the Colts had been able to cover 70 yards or so to score two TDs in the fourth quarter, BB probably was giving them a pretty high probablility of doing it a third time. The real question is just what would be a reasonable probablility that the Colts could go 70 yards? 40%? 50%? I really don't know, but this is one of the great offensive teams in history, facing one of the game's greatest defensive minds and he didn't want to take the chance. I don't call that arrogance. I call it fear, and sometimes fear makes us make poor decisions. What were the Pats' chances of making that fourth and two? I'd have to say at least 50 % , maybe higher. So was BB just going for the grandstand move, was he driven by fear to make a poor decision or was he cooly playing the probablilities as only he can?
Going for it on 4th and 2 It's simple math: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/sh...t=AsGdVukuDa2hqwddtEzSYn9DubYF?urn=nfl,202797 Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:50 am EST Counterpoint: Pros outweighed the cons on Belichick's 4th and 2 By MJD As Chase noted earlier in his post criticizing Bill Belichick for "The Decision," Belichick took a beating from the media after last night's game. Rodney Harrison(notes), who still calls the Patriots "we," verbally put the boots to Belichick from the NBC post-game show. Tony Dungy, maybe the friendliest guy on the planet, lambasted him for it, too. Over on ESPN, Trent Dilfer(notes) absolutely murdered Belichick for the call. I'm going to respectfully disagree with Chase, Harrison, Dungy and Dilfer. I think "The Decision" was the right one. Before we start, I just want you to know that I loathe the man. I think he's cheated, and I think he'd bite his own mother's left leg off in exchange for a win. Or even a first down. It brings me no joy to defend Bill Belichick. The fact is, though, that the pros outweigh the cons here. Yes, he ended up giving Peyton Manning(notes) a short field, and yes, he showed "a lack of faith in his defense." I would suggest that Peyton Manning was going to score a touchdown there, whether it was from the Patriots 28, or his own 38. Belichick knows how good Manning is, and he knows how good his defense is. If you had to put your money on one unit, would you take the Colts' passing game, or the Patriots' pass defense? As for showing "a lack of faith in his defense," you can call it that if you'd like, but I prefer to call it "being realistic about the situation." What, are we worried about hurting the defense's feelings? Awwww. If they don't like it, they can feel free to get better. Maybe there would be more faith in them in they didn't give up, oh, I don't know, just as an example ... 327 yards and four touchdowns to Manning. Belichick had a chance to put the game on ice and keep the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands. All they had to do was complete a simple little play that they've run successfully about 28 million times. If Kevin Faulk(notes) doesn't bobble the pass right at the sticks, Bill Belichick is a genius this morning. I think Faulk might have gotten the first down anyway. We couldn't find out for sure because the Patriots couldn't challenge after having burned all their timeouts (if you want to criticize Belichick for something, I'd start there). They got burned because they couldn't execute a play that Tom Brady(notes) and Kevin Faulk can normally execute in their sleep. At what point would you ever bet against Tom Brady being able to get a ball to Kevin Faulk for a two-yard gain? The raw statistical data backs up the decision to go for it, too. The following comes from Advanced NFL Stats, an excellent site that tracks "In-Game Win Probability" based on stats accumulated and in-game situations. Here's what they came up with, and you can get a more detailed explanation here. WP = Win Probability. With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be: (0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP. Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. At the end of the day, it was an unconventional call that's easy to question, given how things turned out. Belichick, though, has made a hall-of-fame career and built his own legend around making decisions just like that one. That way of thinking is what makes him great. If he wasn't willing to take those risks or do the unconventional thing, he wouldn't be Bill Belichick, future hall of famer and NFL coaching legend. He'd be Bill Belichick, that doofus that the Browns hired once a long time ago. Even if you think it was a bad call, it was still a very Bill Belichick call, meaning that it went against the grain, defied traditional football logic and went for the jugular. Most of the time in the past, when Belichick's made such a call, it's worked out. Last night's didn't. It happens. If the Colts and Patriots happen to meet again in the playoffs, and that exact same situation comes up, it will again be the right call to go for it.