I respect your chomping. But other than the first 4 NCAA games per year there are no ...no brainers. Good luck. BTW: how much would you have laid on the Eagle's last week?
lol lost 10 bucks on them last week Last week i did things a little differently, i bet on each individual game, this week im betting on the package, which is the first time im doing this all year. I have to respectfully disagree about beating the spread, i take 1 or 2 shots a year where i bet on the entire package, last year was one of the first years i ended up net negative on the year,(in the last 5 and it was only by a bit) this year i am 16-12 on the games i had money on. I think that if i was to play 2-3 games a week instead of always trying for lots i could easily be up a few hundred at the end of the season, there are teams that consistently beat the spread in any sport. If you want i will pull up the detroit redwings against the spread record for the last 10 years, they have been over .500 every single year, probably roughly a .600 win record, all you got to do is bet on them every single week, providing you arent getting charged much more than .10 for the bet. These guys are not perfect either, as evidenced by the fact that some years some teams kick the living shit out of the spread, year after year. I know odds are very low that i win on this bet but the fact of the matter is if i lose i lose 200 its no big deal, today i lost about 2k more than that in the first 2 minutes of trading, so im not gonna notice 200 gone but if i win roughly 12k im sure as hell gonna notice that. As long as i end up minorly positive on my betting (which i am) year after year it adds excitement for me.
Detroit Red wings Record against the spread including playoff games last 10 years, not one losing season. 2007-08 70-34 2006-07 60-40 2005-06 60-28 2003-04 54-40 2002-03 48-38 2001-02 58-44 2000-01 48-31-9 1999-00 51-32-8 1998-99 44-38-7 1997-98 60-43 1996-97 55-46 .599 win percentage counting ties as losses
Niners @Houston -3...Houston Eagles -6.5 @Skins...Eagles Vikings @Steelers -4 ...Steelers 1) The Texans will score 28+ and beat the Niners by a TD. 2) Eagles stick one more nail in Zorn's coffin. 3) Favre is playing out of his mind right now, but so is big Ben. The Vikings D looks weaker every game. Advantage Steelers. They win by a TD.
I might not agree with your politics but you definitely know your stuff when it comes to the NFL. I have been busy today and haven't really had a chance to study the spreads too closely. The ones that jumped out at me were SD, Indy, GB and NE. SD has not done much and sucked big time at home against Denver , but they are playing KC. Rather than go over the others here, I think I will hit them in a later post. Good luck with the big bet. That is a tough proposition, but the payoff is huge if it comes through.
I have some mixed feelings about this week. There are some games that look attractive, but upon inspection, they have issues, chiefly heavy favorites playing on the road. Let's take a look. SD(-4.5) at KC. This one jumped right out at me because of how terrible KC is. Worst defense in the league versus a potent offense. Problem is SD seems to have lost its mojo somewhere along the line. Possibly it's bad karma from Merriman strangling Tila Tequila. I'll probably look like an idiot here, but I just can't get comfortable with SD so avoiding this one. Indy(-13) at St. L. St. Louis might be the league's worst team. Indy can put up points with anyone. Give the points here. Indy. Chicago at Cincy(-1.5). Probably lot of doubletakes in the Windy City when they saw this spread. Cincy lost their best defender, DE Odin, last week and it hurt. Bears have injury issues as well. Avoid. GB(-7) at Cleveland. How bad is it in cleveland? Rolling Stone has published an article attacking Coach Mangini. If GB is ever going to be able to protect Aaron Rodgers, it will be this week. Give the points and hope for good weather. GB. Minnesota at Pittsburg(-4). Vikes have been lucky twice already. Ravens missed a 42 yard FG to win last week. Steelers have not exactly lit it up but for the most part have gotten the job done. They have to do better than last week when Big Ben threw for 400 yards but they turned it over four times. Interesting game to watch, not to bet. Avoid. NE(-14) v. TB, at London. Tough one. TB has no offense and a lousy defense. NE has injuries, ie Matt Light, Fred Taylor. Which NE shows up, the one that blew out the Titans or the one that lost to the Jets and almost to the Bills? Not crazy about this one, but laying the points. NE. SF at Houston(-3). What a difference three weeks make. SF suddenly is having trouble, Houston seems to have found itself. Sf is a one dimensional running team, and Houston has been able to stop the run the last few weeks. Should be able to again. If the Texans can get out in front, could be a long day for the Niners. Houston hasn't convinced me on anything however, so I'm staying away. Avoid. NY Jets(-6) at Oakland. Raider Nation is delirious after Iggles beatdown. Jets fans are learning the awful reality of a rookie QB. On paper this one looks like a clear case of the Jets blitz schemes being way too mcuh for Raider QB JaMarcus Russell to handle, but teams are using quick snaps to catch the Jets out of position and Oakland can run the rock. Starting guard Robert Gallery is out though. Avoid. Buffalo at Carolina(-6.5). How bad is Buffalo's offense? They got six turnovers against the Jets last week but only scored 16 points in nearly 5 quarters of football. It was enough to win however. Panthers offense has been almost as pathetic. This could be a 3-0 game. Avoid. NO(-6.5) at Miami. The league's hottest team meets the team with the most celebrity investors. On the surface, this looks like NO all the way, but Miami could be the team to derail the Saints high flying offense. The Dolphins can run the ball and control the clock. I don't see Miami being able to get any pressure on Brees however, and the Giants proved what happens in that case. If NO gets up early, Dolphins are in big trouble. Look for it to play out that way. Give the points. NO. Atlanta at Dallas(-4). Falcons fresh off a beatdown of SF. Dallas fresh off more speculation about Wade Phillips getting fired. How is Dallas favored again? Something screwy here, so I'm staying away. Avoid. Philly(-7) at Washington. This one could have all the fascination of watching that plane crash into the Hudson River. Redskins are in the process of disintegrating. Coach Jim Zorn is on every real estate agent in northern virginia's speed dial. This week he was stripped of play calling duties, which were given to 67 year old Sherm Lewis, who was brought in two weeks ago as a "consultant" . Before that, he was calling bingo in a retirement home in Michigan. True story. Apparently he does not even know the team's terminology yet. But he will call plays in a MNF matchup with one of the team's biggest rivals, the hated Iggles. Of course, if he called QB sneaks on every play, he would probably equal the offense output in previous games. Iggles are reeling from a humiliating loss to the Raiders. They have O line injuries, and the Redskins can bring pressure. They beat the Iggles twice last year and seem to have some kind of weird matchup advantage on them. Probably the lockof the year but I will take a pass. Avoid.
Oops. Missed one. Arizona at NY Giants(-7). I can't share Democrat4Life's enthusiasm for this game. Probably Giants roll, but the same formula that killed them last week against NO could be in play again. The Giant's defense is heavily dependent on pressure from their excellent D line. If that pressure doesn't get there, then their secondary is vulnerable to a good passing game. The Cardinals have dominating receivers and a great QB, although WR Antwan Boldin is hobbled by a bad ankle. Too tough for me. Avoid.
Aready have a few units down on the Raiders, seems to be the best value on the board at this point, plus I expect some line movement as money comes in on the Jets. In college so far I am in on TCU, Nevada, and Temple. Think Steelers should beat the Vikes easily as the Vikes strengths play to the Steeler strengths, but not in on it yet.
I don't dispute your numbers but I find it hard to believe that bookmakers haven't noticed the same pattern and adjusted accordingly. EDIt: you did include the VIG... did you not? If not...the system is VASTLY different.
Ill break down the math with the vig real quick For simplicity sake im gonna assume a .600 win percentage, so lets say you bet 100 games at 20 bucks a game Vig for me is 5% instead of getting paid out at 2-1 i get paid out 1.90 - 1 so i get charged 5% to place the bet 100x20x.05 = 100$ for placing the bets .600 win percentage = 60 x 20 or 1200 .400 lose percentage .40 x 20 or 800 so if you bet every single game on a detroit win you are looking at 1200 - 900 = 300$ profit Now i dont actually go out and just bet on detroit beating the spread every single game but i definately have a long detroit bias, i use this information to not bet against them. Anyways i bet the games i was going to before, SD-4.5 GB-7.5 NWO-6.5 (a little more scared of this one cause of miami's bye) nyg-6.5 on one ticket then those 4 + phi -7.5 and ATL +4.5 on a second ticket, hundred bucks each if i win its over 5 grand Wish me luck