The National Football League: 2009 edition

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by AAAintheBeltway, Sep 7, 2009.

  1. By popular demand, my analyses and picks for the upcoming week's games return for another season. Caveat: These picks are for fun only. The author accepts no responsibility for any betting or other use you choose to make of them.

    Sorry but I do not have the time or inclination to go over every single game each week. I will try to highlight the best matchups and what I see as the best picks against the spread.

    Week 1.

    As always, we start with the league's glamor division, the NFC East, home of the Redskins, Giants, Cowboys and Iggles.

    Redskins at NY Giants (-6 1/2). The marquee week one matchup features the Redskins of owner Daniel Snyder traveling up I-95 to face their longtime rivals, the NY football Giants. The G-men are 61/2 point favorites, which might strike some as light, considering the disastrous 2-6 finish the Skins put in last season. This is an interesting matchup, as the two teams mirror each other to an extent. They are both run first teams with strong D lines. The Giants' O line is considerably more impressive than the Skins unit. The skins' have improved on both sides of the ball, adding all pro D tackle Albert Haynseworth and impressive rookie LB/DE Brian Orakpo on D and G Derrick Dockery on O. Second year WR Malcolm Kelly has impressed in preseason.

    This figures to be a tight defensive struggle that could be decided by a turnover or inoportune penalty. Too close to call.

    Dallas(-5) at Tampa Bay. Dallas underachieved last season, and said goodby to WR/Diva TO. TB has had a wholesale housecleaning, letting go coach Jon Gruden and former franchise players like LB Derrick Brooks. Their QB situation is unsettled, they just replaced their O coordinator last week and they have a rookie headcoach. I like the Cowboys bigtime here. Their fierce pass rush could make a long day for immobile TB QB Leftwich. Dallas.

    Philly at Carolina (even). After their playoff run last year, you'd expect Vegas to give the Iggles some love, but no such luck. They look pretty interesting to me at even, but Carolina has a punishing ground game and good D line, led by DE Julius Peppers. Can Philly's remade O line block him? Doubtful, so stay away from this one.

    Bears at GB(-3.5). This could turn into a shootout between the potent GB offense and the Cutler-led Bears. I see GB as having too many weapons. Give the 3.5 at home. GB.

    Lions at Saints(-13). Can Drew Bress and the high-flying NO offense produce the kind of pinball numbers they did last year? If they can, I figure the Lions, who will probably start rookie QB Matt Stafford, are in big trouble. I don't like to give double digits but the past couple of years, these bets seem to work. Here we have a terrible team with a new coach and possible rookie Qb against a scoring machine playing at home. What's not to like? Saints.

    Vikes(-4) at Browns. Interesting matchup featuring new Vikings QB Brett Favre facing off against his coach from last season Eric Mangini. Browns had a terrible D last year. Still not clear who their Qb will be. Sticking to this week's apparent theme of fading new coaches, I'm giving the points here. Minn.

    49ers at Arizona (-6.5). On paper this looks like a lock. Arizona was in the Super Bowl, SF has had a lot of problems, beginning with the most important position on the field, QB. They do have the ability to run the ball however. Coach Mike Singletary will not tolerate less than 100% effort. How well will Arizona fare after losing star O cooridnator Todd Haley? Will they have the post-Super Bowl letdown? How long can Kurt Warner play anyway? Too many questions so I'm avoiding this one.

    Let's turn over to the AFC.

    Titans at Steelers(-5) Things start off Thursday night with the Super Bowl champ Steelers hosting the Tennessee titans. The Steelers have been golden against the spread playing at home, 5-0 ATS, but not so golden at home against Tenn, 2-4 straightup. I basically hate this game. Avoid.

    Jacksonville at Indy (-7.5). Can Jacksonville's D slow down the Manning Express? Will the Jags run game control the clock? How will the Colts fare with a new coach? I don't know. Avoid.

    KC Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens(-10). KC is a terrible team with a new coach, Todd Haley, who fired his O coordinator last week. Not good. They've invested a ton of money in one year wonder Matt Cassell. Hope he survives facing the Ravens defense. Same caveat as above about double digit spreads but this one is too tempting. Ravens.

    Bills at Pats(-10.5). Bills look like a team in serious trouble. Fired their O coordinator last week. Reconstituted O line. QB Edwards has not established himself. Talented WRs. Pats could be looking to make statement in return of the Golden Boy Tom Brady. So why aren't they bigger faves? Won't all the heavy betting Boston money be on them? I'd expect more like a 13 point spread. Or will this be another season where the public feasts on too small spreads for the Pats highscoring offense? Probably a mistake but I have learned that gift spreads are often fool's gold. Avoid.
  2. LOL!!

    "By popular demand..."

    aaa is now marketsufer of football?


  3. The guy has nice writeups and quite a few of us enjoy reading them, so yes, it is 'by popular demand'.
  4. You still backing DA as a superstar? What about Braylon?

  5. I think DA should be our QB but very doubtful. I think everyone wants the pretty boy in.

    As for Edwards, I can only hope that in a contract year he decides to show up. I hope that last year was a fluke and he remembers how to catch the ball.

    The guys on ESPN said it best today when they said that DA wasn't the issue last year - Braylon dropping balls was. I agree 100%. When your #1 can't catch balls, there's going to be problems.

    So... here's to a hopeful year for the Brownies....

  6. My fantasy team.


    Adrian Peterson
    Amad Bradshaw
    Leon Washington
    Rashard Mendenhal
    Chester Taylor

    Marques Colston
    Don Driver
    Tory Holt
    Chris Henry
    Troy Williamson

    Heath Miller

    NYJ Def
    IND Def

    Minn ST
    Was ST

    Had first pick, 12 teams, obviously starting Warner, Peterson and Colston every week ( 2 rb, 3wr) but after that its a toss up between Washington and Bradshaw, and wr has some less than obvious considerations to be made also. Whatever its fun and the participants are older than anyone might imagine.
  7. Boss302


    Whether you like them or not, Brown's fan's are as loyal as they come.
  8. I would agree!

    Hopeful optimism at this point.

    Probably shifts to depressing realism.

    And then moves to anticipation of next year.

    Repeat process each year until they put something together resembling a NFL caliber team.
  9. What's your take on the Brown's home opener? I might have been a bit rash giving the points. I'm not impressed by Childress, but Mangini leaves me cold as well. I think this cloak and dagger QB business is stupid. The team needs to get behind a leader, otherwise the first mistake the QB makes, they start looking at the other guy.

  10. It may be Anderson which would be hugely unpopular hence the reason for the stall.
    #10     Sep 8, 2009