It's interesting you tied in Christ, to all this. Yea, I think America and Europe, as nations, will be judged, shortly. At least, this generations incarnations will be judged for the lying sack of wanton criminality and depravity they are. Not that I'm some pious guy: I like my women and need to repent of that. But there's a definite spiritual element that gets overlooked all the time. We are called to be lovers of the Truth. Not just the spiritual Truth, but the worldly truth, in general. I notice people don't care about the truth anymore. Most would rather live undisturbed, in their placid little fantasy world of make-belief, than be confronted with the truth, no matter how unpleasant it may be. The natural extension is we've got a pack of criminals running the Government, and the people couldn't care less they're lied too, on a daily basis, on the most important matters. It's a culture of deception. People who love deceiving and being deceived. That's pretty sick. I love the Truth, and try to distill what is true from false, and much of reality is pretty damn frightening. To an extent, I understand the desire to turtle and hide from all the chaos that's going on. But at the same time, we're grown adults. History teaches God doesn't show any quarter, when humanity turns on itself. War and it's progenitor - economic chaos - is something to guard against, but nobody cares about that either. This thread is a great example, the warning lights are flashing, countries are literally collapsing under massive debt loads, notable academics publish 1000-year postmortems saying we got a few years before its our turn, and most people reply to all that with: "it can't happen here". Anyway, you're right. Pride goeth before the fall and America has crossed too many lines. Maybe we could turn this around, but honestly, the nation of Obama-ites on one side, and the warmongers on the other, I don't see it happening. We're gonna walk into this Red Sea and God will let it crash down on us. What happens then? Well, the Guv prepared martial law for the past 10 years, so that seems like the natural course of action. Can't happen here, tho. Just can't. It's America, afterall. Red white and blue. God Bless America and all that other phony-ass pageantry that means nothing anymore with the Patriot Act, Military Commissions Act, NDAA, Enemy Expatriation etc. But people keep clinging to these obsolete notions of what America once WAS, AS IF that's what it is NOW. And it's not. But people don't give a crap. It's all about living in some comforting delusion than reading a newspaper or doing their own research. Anyway. Sorry for the rant.
Well it's an okay plan if you have already passed through the capital accumulation stage of life and are looking to preserve your wealth. As far as why I disagree, you are simply counting on too many fat tail events happening simultaneously and within a very narrow time frame. I'd say your odds are pretty poor for all those things happening and if they did I'm not certain your plan really fully mitigates those risks with any degree of certainty in the first place.
No offense, but that doesn't say much. You realize America is 3 years out from 130-140% debt-to-GDP? Greece, Portugal and Italy cracked at 130%? The Rogoff and Reinhart study examined over 800 years of economic history and concluded it was extremely rare for a Government over 120% debt to gdp to grow its way out? Meaning, they defaulted or inflated the debt away, which has severe social and political consequences, especially for the worlds reserve currency, which makes it that much worse? I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with here? That America won't hit 130-140% debt-to-GDP? Or when we do, nothing will happen? Despite hundreds of examples to the contrary? As for an exit plan, the best plan is to leave. Buy some farmland in an emerging, highly industrialized, low-debt country, and move. Brazil isn't bad. Somewhere in south-east Asia etc. I don't have the cash for that, but if I did, I would. As a plan B.
When we do it most likely won't mean Armageddon. Just be prepared to be wrong and it not seriously affect your lifestyle.
But, it was a good rant. I too see many serious problems on the horizon but I've been seeing these in one form or another most of my adult life. In the 80's I could see the logic in the demographics shift causing the housing market to collapse in the 90's. It didn't happen. It took another 17 years but I'm still here. America is still here. Did it hurt? Absolutely. But it didn't take everyone down. It didn't take the country down. I live better now than I ever have. Are the problems we see on the horizon going to happen? Some of them, probably. Are we going to sit by and let them take us down? Doubtful. But, could they if a confluence happened all together. Probably. But if you keep lamenting about it you'll die a bitter old man waiting for calamity. I think you can be aware of what might happen but realize you will probably be dead before it comes to fruition. And, there isn't much you alone can do about it. So, be aware, stick to your guns but keep a sense of humor about it so it doesn't drive you insane. The long wait could be a killer.
No. I mentioned that at the start of the thread. Im curious what you're rational is, here? I'd love to see some evidence as to why we're not headed for a meltdown, but everything I read says otherwise. The Great D was prolonged by the FED who hoarded loaning gold reserves to commercial banks, which throttled the money supply for a good 8 years. That was manufactured. The recovery coincided with the WW2 build-up, that forced the FED to reloan gold and repump the money supply. Little factoid there for the warmongering Keynesians who tie wartime with economic recoveries. As for what's next, the collapse will be bad. It could be in excess of a 30% contraction, but if left unmolested, we'd recover within 18-24 months, and begin growth. The Depression isn't what concerns me. It's the political and social changes the proles (and their masters) will inevitably demand in the meantime, to "fix the problem", when there's blood in the streets. Since 911, America has been on a parabolic course towards authoritarianism. To suggest whoever is in the Whitehouse won't use the panic to undo whats left of our freedoms, is naive, imo .
Point taken. But on the flipside, is it smart to bet the farm on the extremely rare chance it doesn't happen (Japan. For reasons understood...)? When hundreds on similar examples suggest it will happen, within the next 5 years? See, this isn't some vague guessing game. History is rife with over-indebted sovereigns who went belly up or printed. Argentina, Russia, Mexico to name a few recents. We know the danger-zone (120-130% debt to gdp), we know our current rate of expenditure (10% gdp per year), and we know our starting point (100% debt to Gdp). That gives us three years. Maybe sooner, maybe a little later. I explained Japan earlier in the thread, and we're not them for a few reasons. Less than 5% of their debt is owned by foreigners and they're like China - the global economy finances their GDP shortfall. Not America. Here's a short primer by Reinhart and Rogoff. It's a good start. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...t-grow-commentary-by-reinhart-and-rogoff.html