The mother of all shorts is building: 30-year T-Bond

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bond tr4der, Dec 4, 2008.

  1. It's only a matter of time before it collapses and yields 10% or something.
  2. empee


    no. deflation. gg no re
  3. might take 24 months but i agree with you. we will see a 50 handle inside of 36 months
  4. Agreed. This is as juicy an opportunity as I've seen in a long time. If you don't have the stomach to short the futures, buy the put options on the futures.
  5. The rise has been pretty insane, hasn't it?!

    I stopped saying "it can't go any higher" a long time ago. :)
  6. The options are extremely expensive, I was looking at using TLT as a close approximation of it (wanted to do the trade in a retirement account I can't do futures in).

    I can't figure out a reasonable trade to put on if my horizon is a couple of years.
  7. It will eventually ease, but the fed is in control of that market at the moment. If you want to short now, you better have a large account to withstand a massive drawdown. I think it's due for a small retracement, but until the economy gets better data readings, the fed will continue to hold it up. They are going to keep it pinned for at least 6 months, even longer if things deteriorate further.
  8. Lucrum


    You may be right...eventually.
    But not unlike the recent parabolic move up in oil it's probably best not to try picking the top. Wait for the tide to turn then jump on.
  9. qwert


    i thought tlt was high at 93-96$ haha, sell thoses calls i guess, was gonna short vix in the 40's too, saw some big selling. it worked at the first spike
  10. Not commenting on the direction of the t-bond beyond tomorrow, but it is set up for a nice "buy the rumor, sell the news" move. Look to fade any big move up in price following a bad print on the jobs data.
    #10     Dec 4, 2008