The Most Important Indicator - The News

Discussion in 'Trading' started by FinancialJuice, May 10, 2013.

  1. News, Market Fundamentals and the resulting speculative interpretation of this information is what drives the markets. I'd like to use this thread as a place to discuss current market moving news and the fundamental drivers of the Markets.

    So what do you think is moving the Markets today?
  2. bau250


    I disagree, but then again, depends on the type of trader and trading method!
  3. News and the speculative reaction to that news drives most things in the markets no?

    Certainly the short term environment (day trading) is effected by news, earnings, board changes, statements in speeches.

    The swing environment is less effected by 'noise' news...but more important news events (that are unexpected) like surprise interest rate changes, policy shifts, Macro events.

    And long term positions (over years) rely upon cumulative news rather than singular events, meaning multiple events over time building on each other brick by brick, stocks with consistently positive news keep rising.

    So I would say news overall plays a massive part in driving markets over ALL timeframes.
  4. Lucrum


    The News, Market Fundamentals and the resulting speculative interpretation of this information, maybe?
  5. News????? You mean by the journalists that are all trying to get your attention so that their employer can sell more ad space....

    I strongly recommend the Wall St Journal and Barons for trading ideas.

    On a serious note, the market has a 83.48% chance of rolling over big time by the end of the day. 05/10/13... No really!
  6. RavenPack :cool:
  7. I disagree. There are studies.... yuk yuk....:D the contrary.

    I'm not sure who disproved this, either Frank Partnoy or Barton Biggs. On the surface it seems like the chicken or the egg theory but one of these guys laid it out on paper, regarding the Dow and news and secondly laying out the events of WW2 (Wealth Wisdom and War) and the effect of news on the market. Not just news and our market but foreign news and foreign markets. One would have to read these and draw their own conclusions. I'm talking straight out news, not earnings or Fed policy, etc.

    The gist of it though is people want news to explain the markets actions and various sources will give the masses "something" to talk about.
  8. gmst


    This is extremely interesting. Can you please provide the link to such research?
  9. Sounds like you are talking about Religion...

    Nothing Fails Like Prayer!!
  10. I had to go dig through my books in the garage. Everyything is at my finger tips...:D

    Irrational Exhuberance was the book, there is a chapter on the news media, which provides research and studies of the effect of news and market moves.

    Also, the book ''wealth war and wisdom" is a factual historical view of the market on the various news reporting and effects on the market. What I found most interestiing was propaganda from various countries and the effect on different countries markets. Japan would report one thing, Germany another then US another and how the various markets reacted.

    From what I recall it was interesting how good news about the war resulted in the dow going down, yet in hindsight the market wasn't fooled very often if at all. (trend of war?...{:>)).
    #10     May 10, 2013