The most excellent way to pick great stocks

mrmarket · Jan 31, 2003

Quote from Wappers2:

"Ernie" is an undergrad psych student at Penn State, his major includes some course work during which he demonstrates how easy it is to upset a peacful law abiding community using only simple 2nd-year psych techniques, mainly

* incessant and truly annoying repetition of inane and uncontestable 'facts'
* sexual-related bragging to lower the limbo bar
* reduction of an intellectual pursuit to physical lowest common denominator
* crude attempts to create fictional supporting characters to 'assist'

etc etc

If anyone would like to contest this, feel free.
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I would like to contest this. I graduated from Penn, not Penn State, in 1981 with a BSE in Chemical Engineering.

*I only repeat information if other posters ask for me to repeat this information.
*The only thing sexual related I have ever mentioned is that fact that others on the internet find my picture attractive as evidenced by my rating on HotorNot.
*I know my fractions but I know nothing of the denominator of which you speak.
*I have never posted in this forum under any character other than "mrmarket"

Wappers2 · Jan 31, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

I would like to contest this. I graduated from Penn, not Penn State, in 1981 with a BSE in Chemical Engineering.

*I only repeat information if other posters ask for me to repeat this information.
*The only thing sexual related I have ever mentioned is that fact that others on the internet find my picture attractive as evidenced by my rating on HotorNot.
*I know my fractions but I know nothing of the denominator of which you speak.
*I have never posted in this forum under any character other than "mrmarket"
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You had me going till I saw the last one - 'I have never posted etc' - you *total* bullcrap merchant! Gotta go, have to spend some of the money I made 2day from the bounce of the resistance this am!

Have a nice weekend guys and dont let this troll probe any further - he can do his course research elsewhere!

ElCubano · Jan 31, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

So if I'm in Miami, you want to fight me? I haven't had a fight in over 25 years. You want to fight me because you are smaller than I am? How strange. Do you ask to fight everyone on this board? Have you ever discussed this urge with anyone?

By the way, 5'11" and 195 is not little. It is above average. And while I'm saying nice things about El Cubano, I will add that he was "above average" enough to apologize publicly after he substantiated my claims that I did indeed graduate from Wharton.
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Answers

1)Yes..please let me know ahead of time via PM.
2)No.. I just want to see how "HUGE" helps you when i have my entire finger in your eye.
3)Yes..I have asked one ET member before
4)No.

mrmarket · Jan 31, 2003

Quote from ElCubano:

Answers

1)Yes..please let me know ahead of time via PM.
2)No.. I just want to see how "HUGE" helps you when i have my entire finger in your eye.
3)Yes..I have asked one ET member before
4)No.

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No thanks. I don't want to fight you. Actually, I kind of like you.

Free Thinker · Jan 31, 2003

Quote from mrmarket:

I developed a stock-picking model when I was in graduate school to take advantage of the bullishness the market was exhibiting at the time. The premise was to invest in high beta stocks while trying to limit my downside exposure in the event of a stall or downturn. By using the quantitative steps in the model, stocks are selected that are experiencing sustainable price momentum. The model is a multistep screening and high-grade process that goes something like this:

First, create a universe of about 200 stocks that have demonstrated strong price appreciation and earnings growth in the last 12 months. You can find some pretty good easy to use screening tools on the Internet such as Stockpoint.com. I use the following screening criteria to build my universe of stocks:
Screen #1: Stocks making new highs with IBD EPS rating of 90 or higher

Screen #2: Stocks within 2% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 300%

Screen #3: Stocks within 5% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 150% and EPS growth of 25%

Screen #4: Stocks within 5% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 125% and P/E < 50

Screen #5: Stocks within 5% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 50% and P/E < 15

Screen #6: Stocks within 10% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation >100% and P/E < 100 and 3 year earnings growth of 50% and 5 year sales growth of 25%

Screen #7: Stocks with Investors Business Daily Ratings greater than 95 EPS and 95 RS.

Screen #8: Stocks with Investors Business Daily Ratings greater than 90 RS and PE less than 20.

Each screen will yield about 20 â 25 stocks. Rank these stocks on the following criteria: Price Appreciation, Price Appreciation divided by trailing 12 month P/E, Price Appreciation divided by forward 12 month P/E. Weight each criterion equally and rerank the database. This process favors stocks with more reasonable valuations and weeds out those with no earnings.
Take the top 20 stocks and rank by 12-month revenue growth.
Take the top 10 stocks and run a time series regression analysis on the daily prices for the last 12 months and rank by the highest r-squared correlation coefficient.
Take the top three stocks in order and perform due diligence to determine if there were any one time non â operating factors that affected the data just analyzed (asset sales, lawsuits, financing, etc.) or if there is any pending news of significance that could upset the applecart. Select the highest ranked stock that clears this hurdle.
Buy this stock. In a typical bull market, the stock will, on average, achieve a 15% gain within 4 to 6 weeks. Sell the stock and repeat the process. Why sell so soon? Well there are ever changing phenomena going on in the market that could make your selection criteria quite different a month after the signals told you to buy this stock. The theory here is that you are selling a potentially "tired" stock and trading it for a "fresh" one.
What this process is trying to do is to select a hot growth stock that has a little more juice left in it to get you that last 15% without being so hideously overvalued that it could drop like a rock. I donât think I need to buy stocks with extended valuations to make a quick profit. There are stocks out there with good momentum that arenât bad to hold if I make a wrong decision. I think my model finds them. My model has been successful in protecting me from real lemons. Preservation of capital is always important. Buying companies with real earnings protects me in the down markets. We all work hard for our money. It makes no sense to give it away. Thatâs why I believe itâs important to buy stock in companies with real earnings.

Tell me what you think of my model. Iâd be happy to answer any questions about this process if you send me an E-mail.

http://hometown.aol.com/ebarsamian
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this seems more like a 90s bull market style than todays market.

mrmarket · Jan 31, 2003

Quote from vhehn:

this seems more like a 90s bull market style than todays market.
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You are correct. But even on the really bad market days, there are hundreds of stocks setting new 52 week highs. So, all you really need is a model that identifies the stocks with this momentum and those with the statistical inclination to continue this momentum.

Yes...it is a stock market, but what it really is is a market of stocks.

maxpi · Jan 31, 2003

Hundreds of issues making new highs every day? I don't think so.

BTW you said you are "open minded enough to learn from anybody". You probably have been so open minded it's time you closed down for repairs.

Max

mrmarket · Jan 31, 2003

Quote from maxpi:

Hundreds of issues making new highs every day? I don't think so.

Max
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Go back and check. Show me the number of days in the last 2 years (during this bear market) where there were less than 100 new highs.

maxpi · Jan 31, 2003

I just ran a screen, not one issue on NYSE making new high today, 25 on the NASDAQ, 4 on the AMEX. That is being generous, I did not check to see how many were just repeat performances of the past days.

I looked at some of your picks, could have made a LOT more money by TRADING those things instead of hanging on waiting for your lame exit strategy.

Typical bullshit. It's going to be hard to read the rest of your comments on this thread with you on my blocked list.

Max

KavMan · Jan 31, 2003

Never doubt mrmarket

He is HUGE!!!