Yes, but of dumb bears, when they will see they are wrong. I think smart money is accumulating stock, and smart bears are on the side. Those who are selling are then the dumb bears or those with too much suffering that they are bailing out. Once this source of sellers is exhausted, or smart money is done buying, the mark up phase is what follows.
If we get a good bounce from the long term support which I personally believe will happen........ the big question becomes if we retest this area a 2nd or 3rd time it may break through and close below support.
I'll bite. Agree with everything except one. I really do not think this bear is over. Rather be prepared to wait until at least 2011. President's like to get the nasty stuff out of the way their first two years in office.) I covered my short SH this am, as we are certainly at a support level. No questions there. And as to remaining short here, as you say, don't be a fool. I think bottoms have to do, in the long run, with both economic fundamentals and exhaustion of sellers, and the former has not shown us anything so far but worsening. As to exhaustion of sellers, we have some end of the year tax selling and window dressing to get through by the third week in December, so i think it is best for now to hold off calling a bottom. Will we bounce a little? Sure, that is likely, since we are at strong support. But given that we have still worsening fundamentals, and likely more axes to fall, wouldn't 650 be a more reasonable target for ultimate support? (see the twenty year S&P monthly). We shall see. But would i go short this afternoon? No, of course not. After S&P 650, if we lose it, its 450, and only after that "it's the end of the known world, as we know it." We do have time, do we not, to wait and see whether we are in a bear market or the Great Depression II.
This selling is way overdone. it is reported that unemployment could rise as high as 7.6% before the recovery in 2010, according to Mr. bernanke. However, 7.6% is just 1.6% above the typical unemployment range of 4-6%, which is why it isn't a big deal. 15% unemployment is a big deal, but 7.6% isn't. A few thousand claims are just chicken sh1t when you consider over 150 million Americans are employed, and the job losses are concentrated in the financial sector. the market should surge higher really soon
Today may be remembered as a great day for those who entered this market on long side in their retirement account, and who can place trades ONLY AT MARKET CLOSE (majority of funds)! As readers of RFT's blog know (execution report is posted on RFT's financialtraders blog), RFT entered the market on long side in his retirement account. Thanks very much to the bears/scard bull losers who brought it to an excellent level to enter at market closing!
Jobless rate is at 16 year high and rising, and manufacturing level is at 18 year low and dropping. Good luck with catching the biggest falling knife in your lifetime, bulls. Ask Buffet how it's all working out - he can't recognize the new world. * Fed Balance Sheet has been delayed. Rare incident. Gee. Go figure.
not wise to call bottoms in meltdowns, hedgefunds dropping into oblvion on a monthly basis,this week was probably more hf liquidation and there will be more tommorrrow, you can cover shorts but the bottom aint in. These hf's are piezoe's exhaustion of selleres and i dont think they are done
That knife is needed to cut bears heads! So you just gave the knife to someone else which will cut him or cut your head!