Back slightly above, below or at SIVB bust doesn't say bull here we come. At least not yet. $SPX up about +3.5% on the year currently with no real momentum. Pfft.
Bank Chaos is imaginary, existing only in the media's mind. The U.S. economy is extremely strong at the moment, with the lowest unemployment since the second world war. The Fed is trying to increase the cost of money to the point that people stop borrowing and the economy slows without slowing so much that a recession is created. I think this an impossibility. I don't see how they will succeed in reaching their 2% inflation target without near double digit interest rates and unemployment above 5%. If the Fed persists in raising the funds' rate they may eventually push the economy into a recession and then inflation will finally come down substantially. One of the most effective ways to tackle inflation is of course to increase taxation. That should have already happened for those with adjusted gross of 400K or greater, but it is being fought by the GOP. If Biden's tax proposals were to be adopted, we would see much better progress toward taming inflation. The GOP controlled house will of course not let Biden's budget through unscathed. First to go will be increased taxation of the wealthy. See also: https://fortune.com/2023/02/09/larry-summers-compares-inflation-to-infection-big-risks-recession/
Increase cost of money beyond ZIRP. Watcha think about this when you got the time? AGE OF EASY MONEY https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/age-of-easy-money/
I bit them . Those are the hands that throw 405 lbs around like play shit . I never predict were the mkts going . I react to it . I’m a flea on an elephants back .
But Europe's banks are a freaking disaster waiting to happen. All the biggest banks in Europe have P/B ratios less than 1. Essentially no one believes their financial statements and the market thinks they are hiding losses