The McCain Oscillator*

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Nov 4, 2008.

  1. People are confused as to the meaning of today's market rise. is it possible McCain is winning early?? Ah no. Is it a vote on change and we're all ready for some of that wealth distribution! I'm not sure of that either.

    The vote on the dollar though by our European friends is solidly down today which leads me to believe along with oil's pop it might be time to go long the Silver etf and pare back some of these gaudy gains.

    I guess the most gaudy is Rene Sola SOL we talked about this stock two threads back when i highlighted a mass downgrade that ended with although SOL seemed especially well suited... I said rather smugly that smelled like money we must remember that line... And indeed SOL ripped late last week we missed it and only got on board Monday... still up massive. I'm actually in a dispute now with wachyovia over this name my wife's dingbat brother mindlessly bought some other ReneSola that doesn't trade... My e mail to him was buy reneSola @ $5.20 my feeling is since he's so stupid he bought a stk at $3 something this is on him... I did not give a symbol though but I did give a corresponding price...ah all hell is breaking loose over there. And good. An annoying person who only moves stks around his wife's IRA once a year or so can still cause some grief. YOU MUST PAY ATTENTION NO MATTER HOW SMALL THE CLIENT BROKERS!

    Some other names the MOS had done it's 20% willl it go up another 20%? Probably but I'm getting off. keeping the general Ag Index fund MOO for a while more... and still have ADM & AGU so we are well covered... All this movement in the casino stks is bound to move SGMS scientific games, I really like this holding... I took a chance with an earnings play for tonight.. I bought yesterday the company is
    GREATBATCH... this is a battery company that specializes in tiny IMPLANTABLE batteries and has cozy relationships with the Medtronics of the world... My research leads me to this unknown name because of the belt tightening that has been underway at the Co for a while and what i perceive to be some pretty good management. With a new arena of electric cars and thus a new area of business- being a battery maker is good now... I like the recession proof side to their medical battery business and I think they will beat their number... That in itself is not enough of course, will anyone notice? I think so for a very great while during the markets fall this stk held up well it did take a mini dive but a couple strong up days will have this name regaining a very good look on a chart and hopefully catching some med tech investors along the way. Symbol GB.

    QCOR! What can i say folks gave you that one clear as day. I'm selling.

    WLP- Has made a strong comeback. I think there is a general feeling an Obama win would be good for this managed care business - the trick is they are rapidly moving into the banking business and these Health savings Accounts which I think is a good thing but this is a shady group to invest in, like semi conductors if a couple compatriots stub their toe, you are going to feel the pain too.

    I LIKE ISIS!!! & I Don't OWN IT. It kills me. had every opportunity at $12, $13 it just lay there despite all the good it has going for it. At $15.36 it's still a great buy and I might today. That or SLV...

    I bought FTEK by the way yesterday too. God help me that is a terrible stock I know. It's one of the common sense plays- Clean coal = politics = FTEK, if only investing was that easy. Queezy feeling there but look at t he 5 day... to many whistles going off...

    I've been waiting on KALU, the ole' kaiser Allum for them to report- they do wed - I just didn't want to get in front of that report despite the fact t hat Meryl Whitman was in Barrons again on this name buying... She's had great luck with it and damn if it hasn't gained $10 dollars while I've been watching it. Big mistake there.

    In general that's where my head is at. Some fields managed Healthcare, Solar, Clean Coal they might be good for an extended ride here and some of the rebound we have been seeing in the other areas might be close to stopping. Most Professional charting sites are waffling as usual and I'm tempted to do the same.~stoney


  2. lets talk about a stk we bought a little more than a week ago ARCHER DANNIELS!!!!!!!! Hello people why are you not pinging stoney on this one!!!!

    Do I have to reboot these damn threads! Where is the love is no one trading but me????? Well it's $18 to god knows what today up $3 I hear I just emailed the Hedge Fund asking if I should sell. Stay tuned.

    I'm going to give a few of my secrets out in this thread but if you want to force your broker to talk to you even when they are in the middle of a leaving the wife and kids situation that you do not approve of and in fact what was once a two time a day phone call buddy is now but a street urchin in a way.... JUST SEND AN EMAIL WITH THIS HEADING- " ARBITRATION REQUEST " The brokerages email filter system sucks that word out of cyberspace and sh*t gets done! Now that we have talked I may forgive him a bit after all he was the source of all my sporting tickets and that has been very tough on me....

    If we sold ADM and bought ISIS it would probably be a very good move... WLP still scares me a bit, although I may throw the idea out to the Hedge Fund for some research. Hate to be a bother but I am!

    To my count we have spitted out upwards of ten winners in a very short time... but alas the market has given me that opportunity by ceasing to plunge for a while. How long can that go on for in the face of in the big picture of massive wealth destruction? and just who does the market want in office- Obama or Mccain? The oscillator swings madly on this point.

    A lot of wealthy wall streeters are going for Obama.
    They seem to know a sinking ship when they see one and are leveraging their dollars in support of the O man. Throughout the years we always hear that a Republican Presidency is better for the markets we hear it so much we believe it the only problem is the stats do not bare that out.

    First off election years in Bear markets are not as rare as i supposed. We had 1960, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1984, & 2000. usually the party in power is tossed out. Also after back to back terms it's very rare to get a third chance at the rule the world pie... One of Ronald Reagan's greatest legacies was his ability to rule for 8 and then hand off to Bush. I think it happened one other time.. When an incumbent gets the boot November usually ends up well. This is giving me the hope that this rally after a thursday fri retrace will pick up again and last until Thanksgiving.

    As I type this AGU has slipped $3 MFing dollars off the high. Profit taking in the ags might be close to setting in... I'm preying for one more surge up so I can hold this Agrium through their earnings. I just sold ADM though to protect myself and lock in gains. hedge Fund agreed that was the move.

    Here is the stock markets history's take on which party is better in office: The Dow Jones gained an average of 9.05% each of the 48 years (32 up, 16 down) a democratic President ruled the roost while Republican Presidents attained a 6.5% gain for each of the 59 (36 up, 23 down) years in office. WTF! The lies we have been told in this regard by that coke sniffing economist on CNBC!!!!!

    Ironically I think the one other time aside from Regan that a party held power after two terms might of been New Deal time.... and aren't we in that sort of a mindset as a country and aren't we that close to a depression? It should be noted that Hoover took over such an economic mess even his democratic affiliation could not lift the market... then like now everything was down... commodities, gold, stocks and then the market went down more- Hoover was not considered for a second term after that. Obama may be facing a similarly tough challenge. There is something weird in the air when gold is not arcing upwards in such a climate- it did today- but in general those in the know seem to be down on gold's prospects.

    Did the economy do in McCain or did Bush? Or Did the choice of batty Palin as VP? Or Is Obama's political dragnet just that good? The answer is yes to all of the above. ~stoney
  3. Now that is some excellent analysis. :p
  4. Thank you mandel, I really think I could hold my own on MSNBC if they wanted to give me a Rachel Mathers type show on stocks. And it is confusing mcCain was getting that big surge until he quit the debate and tried to get some face time up at the capital that's really when his polls turned everywhere... But of course the initial failure of the banking system and capitalism it's hard not to blame the party in charge for 8 years but is McCain that party? He didn't distance himself from the core right- he should of agreed with the basic concept of Roe vs Wade and met the middle.....
    HOWEVER, that Palin what a HUGE blunder, once again letting the far right control him, McCain did not stand up for himself, what a stupid pick. As bad as that stuttering general for Perrot. I guess it's not the pick so much as allowing any press to talk to her. Some day we will have a campaign in which a VP refuses all press... it won't work. Americans know when to draw the line. She had to speak and the liberal media took her down. All this playing along with and going onto Saturday night live... it really ruined her. And college classes will deal with the SNL factor here... it's all funny until it isn't when you realize parody means somewhere- it's for real...

    I love elections especially when they might be stolen. So A big night it is. We tested our financial system and let greed run amock- we failed. Now we test the voting system, will everyone be allowed to vote or will we end up in the courts again carping above overseas ballots??? Will America fail here too? I certainly hope not. This redistribution of wealth is one of the greatest ideas ever. In fact I would take it one step further and allow the voters to choose whom they wished to receive their money from directly. I was thinking about this during my workout today and I was thinking Bruce Springsteen, I'd like some of that. Not too much maybe a mil. That would certainly help. I need all the help I can get. ~stoney
  5. A lot of folks watching the vix now at
    The VIX is -4.68 (-8.7%) at 49.00, while the VXN is -3.24 (-5.8%) at 52.95.
    According to (no idea)
    The Volatility Index is at an important "Pivot Point". Yesterday, it closed on a critical 4 week support line. What it does today and tomorrow will determine if the S&P 500 falls to the downside and retests the recent lows ... OR, if the S&P 500 breaks through its upper resistance line and makes a possible run to 1100. This is the time for you to pay close attention to what happens on the VIX. Our studies show that the VIX has a correlation with the daily amount of Institutional Buying and Selling and more specifically ... the SPREAD distance between the two that occurs. So, the VIX's action will also be an indirect reflection of Institutional activity in the next two days.

    >> I VIX under 40 would be bad for this rally. It would bring out the short sellers. So the market if this rally is for real is apt to shake down a bit and get that VIX back up.... or not. There is great fence sitting now by everyone on this market. here is my favorite from - Robert McHugh's technicalindicator index:Monday night, we can tell you that very little has changed. There are equally probable scenarios for a short-term bullish move, and short-term bearish move. If you want to press us to the wall, we would not be surprised by a rally of 3 to 5 percent over the next week or two, followed by a sharp decline into the bottom of wave a-down. That would represent the end of the first phase of the Bear market, and the start of a multi-month rally, wave b-up, the eye of the hurricane so to speak. This suggests that whoever is elected tomorrow, he should experience a short honeymoon, followed by a devastating catastrophic market collapse that could be so bad as to render him a one-termer, the final wave c-down for this Bear market, starting in 2009. It is also possible that wave b-up has started.....

    How bout that mandel! people pay for this stuff!
  6. ONE STAR?


    Holy cow I'm off and running it's a huge huge day for me and you as usual are all invited.

    Ok This is A TEST LADIES & GENTS... I gave you earnings plays AGU & GB for today of course as is my way 100% of the time I play earnings the market open considerably down...

    Ok here is the test... it's really about REVENUE I hope... GB beat by one cent which doesn't sound THAT great but I point to and I prey others do to the 72% rev rise to $136 mln vs $128.4 estimate... That's $8 mil! No small feat. Backed next year's #'s.

    Alright one of the classic stoney problems is I am drawn to straight talking management-- so on earnings day when you have a beast who tosses in (hold your breath folks) A BEAT BY 42 CENTS!!!! WITH A 214% REV RISE!!!!! $3.11 BILLION REV vs 2.24 estimate..... hello???? Oh snap do you know what AGRIUM would of done if we had shady management!! So as it is, we do have a lot of straight shooting future looks uncertain stuff verbiage in the earnings and I don't how to play this at all; conference call later in the day... very tough call here for me today... looks like up 7% in the pre when it should be up 17%....

    Oh GREATBATCH could you would you with a batt
    Should You Make Stoney fat.

    ISIS ladies & gents I'm having one of my " feelings " here... ~ si


    please you sideline types cast your eyes upon the beginning of this thread and the earnings play on a stock no one has heard of...

    NEW Real-time: 25.32 3.50 (16.04%) 10:02

    THAT'S RIGHT THE OLE' 16% move... Up $3.50....

    AND IT'S ABOUT TIME THE STARS STARTED BEING GIVEN FOLKS... Because I have another idea, one born out of a lot of charting by me to no great avail more so a constant watching of a certain infrastructure stock that I believe could do what Greatbatch is doing for all six of you out there who have emailed I just saw my mailbox part of this board I keep forgetting.... This stock I believe reports tomorrow so a lot is market timing here too folks...

    the question is ARE YOU FEELING LUCKY? And who's gonna step up and show some love here? Has their been a bad idea in my last three threads? Plus political coverage, economics, I could start fine dining reviews...

    Furthermore, I cycle through my watch list for you all for no pay and look for the smallest of clues to what to do and when I find something on a daily as I have today and I happen to be on a roll why not push it one more time I say! BUT ONLY IF I GET SOME DARN STARS!!!

    My action list is down to almost nothing we have bought or discarded almost everything there is just this one remaining earnings play and ISIS and Wellpoint... it's almost time for me to do the unthinkable- to place those last few bets and STEP AWAY FROM THE TABLE...

    One of the tricks to investing folks is to know when to step back despite having the hot hand... these streaks have a way of stopping with a fast ball to the face. ~stoney
  8. damn I was about to advise you all that after those MASSIVE earnings from Agrium the stk was freakin at $40!!!! It just reversed higher thank god now we are moving! AGU running s a fast $3 to new 7 day rally highs! Now 42.25 +$2.02.... Conference call love would goose the stk here as well as some gaudy upgradeds tomorrow... we have open interest in options really strong with this name I believe.... I checked a while back everyone was betting on $50 so I guess the question is how close to that can we get before sellling off. let's give us $2 more today that's $44 or so and then the upgrades tomorrow... if we can get $47 we might just take it before that Friday jobs number.

    Weeeeeeeeeeeee. :)
  9. ALRIGHT Just bought my new earnings play.... can the kid do it?, three in a row in two and a half days.... can't tell you all the name because some bad tempered Republicans are refusing to give me STARS today. I will except NO LESS THAN 3 Right now to give away this next pick.... Folks, I could charge for this, I do this for free for nothing else but simple adulation. And STARS!

    Here are some hints, as I said I'm in the construction engineering & Construction business, I do Private and US Gov work I have a PE of under 6.... and EPS over $3.50.... I have some Insider buying in mid sept $5 above my current price...
    I have stopped a free fall and based a bit & have loads of room up to run. I have a ton of cash on hand. WHO AM I....???

    Now my work is done today! @ $11.00! I'm just going to go out and have a lunch. Nothing crazy, couple beers. And I'll check in again at 2:20, before I have to run out to pre school soccer practice. So if I have upwards of 3 STARS at that time, I will reveal this latest pick. ~ stoney
  10. NYSE McCain oscillator +320 ( up 78) VERY overbought!NDX McCain oscillator +95 (up 35)VERY overbought!, SPX McCain oscillator 94 +41 , VERY overbought... HOWEVER, we have a market that has rallied on bad news quite a few times as of late and I wonder if we may be setting up for the same market reaction Friday... lots of gloom and doom lots of conspiracy theorists - that all the really bad econ news will come now.... Good set up to reverse shorts.

    Ok I got my stars in short order.

    Perrini. (PCR) This company builds among other things stuff in iraq and Casino's so you could say the stock is way down for those reasons... winding down Iraq and a troubled with debt casino sector.
    Careful review will show I think a strong backlog and very few cancellations in fact some of their bigger casino projects have apparently gotten financing. Insiders saw fit to buy at $25 in m id Sept and the stock really bottomed at $14.

    This is the type of stock that never looked to good on up days and has shaken out a whole lot of disgruntled shareholders. This can be a good set up. Management also is under the gun to be bullish I would think after such a price fall.

    $14 to $16 I plotted and plotted no big deal and wamo- $19. Now the chart doesn't look quite as scary. Good support @$17.65 a reaction high on contract news. PCR looks to be close to a big breakout having firmed up off their lows.

    Perini seems to me to be trading below their backlog getting virtually no credit for it.

    Perini trades at near the cash on their balance sheet! ($15.55) a share...

    I know the market stinks but in reality here you are paying net cash $5 for this global company at some point you have to throw up your hands and say WTF, it's a BUY. And I have done that today. Also at my wife's urging I have canceled lunch and returned to the keyboard.

    She always says " make while the making is good! "

    Another company in the field with a strong balance sheet is MDR. McDermott. With some clean coal segments i have picked up coverage... if Perini really pops after the close thurdsday we may rotate into here MDR on any Friday weakness... it's a delicate dance... especially this earnings season. ~ stoney
    #10     Nov 5, 2008