A neat scenario would be a stock crash, dollar crash, Gold/Crude/Grains explosion into September 18th. Force the Fed to choose sides.
The lack of response to this thread is all the sentiment I need to know. We're breaking huge. Short ES now.
I'd love to see it. Dollar really has no support under 80. Interesting that the COT's reports show now signs of them paring back bullish positions. I think the one wildcard that might get you your wish is Shanghai/Hang Seng getting smoked in the next 2 weeks. I cant see this up 1-2% a day for 4 days down .85% for one day crap going on much longer in the the face of a recession in their largest export market.
I wont be shorting ES till the FED meeting...risk is shorts get reamed into the meeting, only 6 or so trading sessions away. Lot of shorts will be removed as we get closer to the meeting.
if you look at the state of the job market, everything is pretty much status quo. the numbers are within statistical deviation. If you actually take a drive, and look around, on the surface nothing notable has changed. The BLS is a cartoon agency. monitor the non traditional methods, such freight rates, or tanker rates, there are lots of ways one can monitor the state of the world. the world is not ending. Expecting 1500 on ES post fed meeting. So ES will be within 30 points of 1500 before the FED meeting. 1470 or so. the price of oil is a direct measure of world economic activity. If the large speculators really felt that the world would be entering a significant slowdown, Oil would be sub 65 by now.
in your equation - what is fed expected to do to move ES by 30 points? or does it matter for ES what fed actually does?
That's how it usually goes, and the other risk of being short, which I hate, is the ever-present possibility of a midday rate cut announcement even prior to 9/18. I don't think that will happen, in fact I'm not even certain the Fed will cut at all. The only sure bet in the next few days is going long the volatility.
well discount rate led to this pop, but it was done during low liquidity situation. around 1418---to 1470 or so...50 points. since the rate cut expectations are factored into the market to certain degree. I expect a move of 30-50 points. since the discount rate high was 1470, I expect we hang out at that level. The previous wave high level is 1500 or so. So the stops at that level will be taken out before any meaningful move down. People seem to have forgot we are in a election cycle, the liquidity spiggot will be left wide open.
You did this once before on a Sunday and afterwards only claimed you were checking to see how bearish the sentiment was. Am I right or was this someone else?