LOL! I'll probably step on a pop top and blow out my flip flop! Except for my dining room mishaps, Bush's efficacy, Babak's and Vinny's disagreement (although Babak did post that lovely link about friends), the bet, wmd's, etc. are fine topics... but none of them have been related to the basis of the first post which was... if we are going to war, why aren't the sectors that would benefit from war rallying? Of course, then I must add that craps is not blind gambling and provides the knowledgeable craps player the best edge in all of casino gambling. If the reference was to street dice then okay maybe, but one can still get the edge there too.
Get ready for that contrition. I expect a full acknowledgement when we invade, conquer and destroy saddam hussein. That's war, no matter how you define it. may not last long, but its war. Shortboy? last I heard he's doing great. 7 straight years of audited profitability. CAN ANYONE ELSE ASSERT THAT? A profitable website (the only profitable financial content website EVER!), a website that was recognized in the Wall St. Journal twice, Forbes, and a book. HAS ANYONE HERE BEEN RECOGNIZED IN THE JOURNAL? sounds like shortboy has all the groomings of an excellent hedge fund manager. I'm sure we'll be hearing alot more from him in the future. I'm convinced based on his 7 year performance that he's the BEST short seller in America. The BEST. It's called CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE. So Go get him President Bush! And down with the canadians like babak, who have done little to help the U.S., except give us hockey. Vinny USA Gigante
Touche'. My mention of 'dice' as blind gambling was a bad example, although my understanding is that even the best expert craps player can only hope to achieve odds of 50/50. That's why you never hear of casinos giving the bum's rush to winning craps players like they do to card counters. However, I should have used clearer examples like Scratch off- lotto tickets, slot machines & Keno
Maybe because no-one really benefits from war. Huh, what is it good for. Face it, this thread is not one well designed for specificity. The title "The market is whispering something..." is predetermined to invite a loose collection of various responses. If he wanted to get specific market-related responses to his question, he would have better odds by naming the thread something like "Defense Sector Rally? Yes or No". In bulletin board posts, as in classified advertising, a catchy and specific title is an important factor in its effectiveness. I vote that this thread either be renamed, or be moved into the Psychology Topic, where according to its title, future discussion would be related to the subject of whether or not the stock market can be viewed as an accurate predictor of anything. This can be viewed as the true basis for this thread, according to both its title and the opening sentence:
sorry to go off topic, but i think it's somewhat comical that you can tout shortboy as the BEST short seller in America when you obviously have very little knowledge in the area... how do you not know who Niederhoffer is?
Let's see... just some examples... 1- independence from British tyranny - War of Independence 2- abolition of slavery - Civil War 3- halt of genocide of Jews - WWII Are there examples where war did not work out so well? Sure... Viet Nam comes to mind. But to say that no one benefits from war is inaccurate. And how does this relate to the basic premise of the thread... well, as I said before and others have also said, stocks and commodities that rally with war have rallied already... gold, oil, defense stox.
I have replies to make to your comments about war, but I don't know if I'm going to be criticized for going off topic if I make them. I think the topic of this thread has become "what is the topic of this thread?". Let us know the definitive answer to that so we don't have to be accused of meandering off topic. Maybe Babak should give the asnwer. Or maybe it should be moved down to Chit Chat.
PM me if you want then! And no one is criticizing anyone for going off-topic. Babak asked that the responses be limited to how trading and the markets are affected etc. That's fairly easy to do. Maybe you should start a thread to discuss the positives and negatives of war, put it in chit chat, copy the replies from here that you want to debate, and have at it. Starting new threads is a privilege granted to every registered member!
Your comment on the benefits of war.................afraid that one of your examples is wrong. Anybody with any sense knows that the USA would have been far better off had it remained a colony of Britain
LOL! I have to presume you are kidding! Although I can see some problems that we have and the UK doesn't. But since the US is responsible for over 20% of the world's GDP, and since the US has the most powerful military force, and since the US is the model for democracy, and to keep it market-related... since the world markets don't do squat when the US markets are closed, I'd say the US has done fairly well on its own.