I would love to do some bottom fishing near the October lows but I don't think a war with Iraq will bring us back that low. Increasing weakness in the economy could over the next year. Lately every good pullback gets bought up and its driving me nuts. Could be that pension fund imbalances are causing stock buying to offset the already high value in their bond accounts. I would have a hard time sleeping if my account was parked on the long side but it sure feels like plenty of money is ok with it. Some big futures traders are playing with the stops on the topside?? Screw them....I'll day trade to the long side but I have recently started a small Put collection, Helps me sleep
One thing for sure - COMMODITIES just keep heading North ! What's that whispering ? Inflation Coming ? ( just what we need uh huh ). What has happened to Commodities preceding previous Wars ? U tell me ~ oNe jUsT nEvEr kNoW ! dO oNe ?
http://www.cges.co.uk/omplatest.htm The link above gives a nice overview of oil price expectations. In short, war with Iraq is accounted for already. http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/index.html This will provide more calm to the oil storm. This time last year oil prices were at 18-20 dollars/bbl. Now they are at 30-34. That's a big % move! Prices have gone from 24-25 dollars/bbl in Nov to 32-33 today!!! That's a 33% move in 8-9 weeks folks. Now OPEC has provided assurances that it will boost production even more to asian countries in the event of disruption by war. Venezuela has been discounted but should that strike settle... lookout below. Whether we go to war or not I have no idea. I hate to lose 1 american life for that pig Hussein. But he needs to go. As for no rally in oil - I have to disagree. It has already rallied, and now awaits confirmation.
I agree with inandlong. Venezuela is more important to us than Iraq. No doubt part of the rise in crude has been war fears but the Venezuelean situation has had a direct effect. It is beginning to look like war is less likely. Perhaps the whole thing was a big bluff.
I think the market is simply waiting. It's already priced in potential terrorism, fraudulent accounting, bad earnings, widespread unemployment, bloated consumer debt, etc., etc. Compared to these other financial events/issues, a war with Iraq is relatively small change in the "financial impact" department. Just look at volume - it's relatively quiet. I don't think you can read too much into what the market is saying with a sideways market and lower volume. And I don't think the big players care much whether Saddam falls in a coup or not. It probably will not be that significant of an event unless Saddam manages to destroy some of Israel's infrastructure. We're all stuck waiting for a few more months...
1. there will be a war. our reason for provocation will be relatively weak compared to past events. there will be a war with iraq. 2. there will be an occupation. 3. unless saddam destroys the fields, the occupation will be less disruptive to oil supplys than the current situation. 4. maybe the market knows that "dubya" will not mess around with iraq like daddy did. saddam goes! maybe the other arab countries realize that too? 5. the bigger problem is: the world has changed. we cant keep paying other countries unlimited funds not to develop nukes. some countires will ultimately prefer nukes. also, as noted by gerald allman in "growth stock outlook." the muslim population trends particularly in west european guarantee that over time some of our current "friends" will become muslim-dominated countries. france is a likely suspect. 6. the market has not priced in all the risk - it has just not adapted completely to the new world - yet. its certainly hasnt priced in any major problems with a war in iraq - its priced in a quick victory. also, if it had efficiently priced in a terror attack, it wouldnt tank when the event occurs. this is not a time to be picking bottoms. there will be plenty of time for that. the market may, however, be pricing in very positive impact for dubya's proposed stimilus package. just guessing like everyone else.
The market isn't whispering. It's mumbling incoherently. The market reflects American society as a whole. For further reference; see "head injury".
$10,000 bet- even money on war in the next 1/2 year? You're filled! I'm not talking about a little air raid or cruise missile here and there- that's been going on for the last 12 years. I'll take this little wager as high as $50,000 if you'd like. If it stays at $10,000 I'll allow Baron to act as escrow. If you'd like to wager a larger amount I'd prefer to involve Vic Niederhoffer (friend of mine) as escrow. I'm sure you can trust him to act in this capacity. Please either pm me to set up the logistics of the bet, or post a shameful retreat in this thread. Those really are your only 2 options. Thanx, ML
George Bush can't very well drop bombs on suspected weapons sites while UN weapons inspectors are still checking out suspect locations. The weapons inspectors still have a full six months of work to complete so it is unlikely that we will see war any time soon. Runningbear