The more I look at the market, the more confused I become. In the recent past we've had saber rattling the US, England and Baghdad. Almost everyone is talking about when the US and UK will attack Iraq. Not if. On top of that we have the whole explosive North Korean situation. And it seems to be escalating each week. But when I look at the market I get a totally different picture. For example, the $XOI (Oil Index) is drooping, well off its highs reached in early 2002. The $OSX (Oil Services) is almost as flacid, meandering in a mazy motion, mainly downward. As well, $DFX (Defense Sector) is drooping and deflated. If the market knows before anyone (according to Dow theory) and discounts the future, then why are the sectors that would benefit from the war not rallying? We've all heard those that say this is all about American imperialism and the true goal is getting their hands on Iraqi oil fields. I don't want to get into a political debate about this. My point in bringing that up is to say, ok....so if that is the real aim of the US and if they are without a doubt going to invade, take over and occupy Iraq.... ....then why are the sectors of the US economy that would benefit tremendously from such events not responding? My personal take on things is this: there will be no war. I know that sounds kooky, but that (to me) is what the market is whispering. I would really like to know what other traders read into the market action, but I beseech you to please contain your comments to the market and strategy instead of political debate. I initiated this thread in the 'Trading' forum because I wished it to be about the market and not about politics. Look forward to your ideas.