Let's face it, the only thing keeping this market afloat is enterprise spending in AI hardware, software development & cybersecurity (for deepfakes). I guess you can throw in the traveling sector where the upper middle-class and above are still into it (the K-gun recovery hypothesis). Unless AI is a total bust and everyone stops buying nVidia GPUs it will continue. I think Gene Munster called AI a greater opportunity than Internet 1.0 but less than electricity. If that's true you could see a Schilling P/E > 50 before it collapses. As for right now I watch BubbleVision to gauge sentiment and it seems there are still sell-siders telling you to wait for a pull back that will never come. That is the real reason for no pullbacks. I also believe this rotation into the S&P 493 won't last long either. It's just an interest rate rotation. Just like the first week of January when there was a selloff in the semis but it also snapped back quickly. Amazingly without the Magnificent 7 the S&P 500 had negative earnings growth in all of 2023 & Q1 2024.
Re: stocks, this is basically the same thing permabears have been saying since 2010 and they’ve been dead wrong all the way up. The most you can say is that the US market is somewhat rich relative to bonds (ERP) and non-US shares, and that returns over the next 10+ years are likely to be lackluster. But you’re going to need a very serious external shock to see any kind of sustained decline. As to crypto (specifically BTC) I see the range of fair value as so wide that it’s impossible to make any definitive statements as to pricing.
Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD 126.14+1.55 (+1.24%) ---> The product, not the stock.
Market level doesn't depend on new technologies but only money printing/suply and interest rates/ inflation Debt situation is bad, they need to cut rates. S&P could go to 7000 before elections
And right before the dot com collapse everyone felt the same way as they do now, that stocks and markets would continue to just rally rally rally. There were zero signs of any reason for stocks to drop as literally every day the markets were printing free money, just like they are today.
Yeah but the market could still run 20 to 30% from here, unlikely this year, over the next two or three years. Before another big correction.
You fail to explain specifically what’s different with the current market compared to past markets. If you could, that would make your comments more interesting. For the record, I’m fairly bullish too and think the stock market have plenty more upside this year, but I’m not married to that view.