EDIT: What seems to be more likely and what their plans are is to block the Island (opposed to violent military action). They will try to force them into peaceful reunification. Makes a lot more sense than an outright military attack.
Definitely not fragile. Every dip is free money. There was no chance yesterday would ever follow-thru. Next week will again hit new ATH and there is nothing that can change this. Nothing really matters at this point. This thing is pumping wether anyone likes it or not.
Everything is completely normal when stock prices make no sense. Be concerned only when market prices seem rational. That is a sign something is very wrong. If you put shit in a blender and it turns into gold, be happy. Don't ask "why"?
The concern is that the irrationality has gotten so out of whack that it's peaking into the extremes and sooner or later the things are going to turn around. Prices going up distort the perception of reality. In my mind it will snap and there will be a hard landing. There are a lot of underlying issues and potential triggers, it's just a matter of what and when it's going to be.
You are trying to apply logic to the market even though you obviously understand it perfectly. That you understand the market was obvious when you wrote: "...irrationality has gotten so out of whack that it's peaking into the extremes and sooner or later the things are going to turn around." This is precisely what happens over and over, up/down, rinse and repeat. The market turns around not because its totally out of whack. Out-of-whackness is what draws in the money until the last drop of it that can go in, is in. That last drop comes from those who put off joining the nonsense until near the end. They can't stand it any more. They see the market going up-up-up and there they sit on the sidelines. Finally they go in, and when they do the market turns around because all the sideline money is in, and credit is maxed out. The market is cyclical! It is only the timing of the "sooner or later" part that's so damn hard to get right.
looks maybe like a top. I hope so that it was. Please tell me the era of bread and circuses is over. Complete insanity. A rug pull is more than needed. We desperately need a reset to heal. Things are beyond retarded.
I think China will surround Taiwan before US presidential elections and this will send the stock market tumbling down hard and will result in Trump getting elected. Nothing happened during Covid but people lost their mind. I think same scenario. China surrounds Taiwan and forces them into peaceful reunition. Nothing ends up happening, but people lose their minds again in fear of escalation and we revisit Covid lows (down to around $2500-$2750 SP500, below $10,000 NAS100 and around $50 NVDA).
Now if we are really, really, really lucky, then the AI bubble will burst at the same time private equity finally pops as well. Maybe 6-24 months out?
If China escalates anything with Taiwan or even some idea that there is a US/China confrontation US stock indexes will fall so fast the circuit breakers will kick in and the fed will have an emergency fed meeting cutting rates overnight with QE pushing trillions into the market.....Indexes could easily plummer by 30% within weeks!