I know it's ironic, but the market seems so wrong at this point. Is there something that we are not seeing??? There is a possibility that we are driven towards full-AGI (artificial intelligence) that will solve all the worlds problems, making us all rich and happy. In a sense that the market is this great prediction tool as it discounts EVERY possible indicator in existence into the price and we are rallying because of this great future that lies ahead. While certainly possible, it seems highly unlikely at this point (it's probably farther off than we imagine it to be). Because the discrepancy between perception and reality has probably never been bigger. The reality of the situation is that we are FU**ED. The ONE thing that markets HATE more than anything is UNCERTAINTY. And now we have more potential upcoming uncertainties than we've ever had: 1.) Bank failures 2.) China reunition with Taiwan 3.) Escalation in the middle east 4.) US internal security issues (unvetted immigrants) 5.) US civil "issues" Just to count some from the top of my head. There are probably many more. I am not even saying the market has topped. I am more like "what the fu*k?" I am smart enough to know that none of this matters for as long as FED keeps printing, making the number go up. HOWEVER, at some point, something IS going to break and it's gonna get ugly. Right? Just looking at my history it's kind of interesting because i've had quite a few amazingly accurate predictions that came true. Of course i am cherry picking and i've been wrong a lot too and obviously i don't know what happens next and i am wondering just like everyone else is. But maybe i am not completely off??? How much more wrong can the market get? Calling the Covid crash months in advance; SP500 DOWN to 2500 and then to 2200 Predicting crash of Boeing & the market: BOEING is going DOWN and it's taking whole market with it. Crash is inevitable Calling out market bottom: This is what a market bottom looks like Calling for massive pumps on junk assets (eg. cryptos): Is this the time when the biggest junk pumps? Predicting good(bullish) times ahead: "Bull markets climb a wall of worry"
Your points are valid... but the market is irrational at times. I can imagine the markets continuing to rally on the expectation of interest rate cuts... and continue doing so until they think the final cut has been made. Perhaps that will be somewhere around 3.5-4% in the 10 yr.. IF that the case, the market has MUCH further to "irrationally run". The "rug pull" will be devastation, of course.
"The market can stay retarded longer than you can stay solvent" At some point the market should run out of buyers. But the US government is borrowing Trillions more every year and spending it.. and where do those trillions end up..
The U.S. doesn't borrow. It is impossible for a nation to borrow in its own currency. See my posts in the economics thread if you want to know what the U.S. is actually doing when it appears to be borrowing by issuing securities.
That's news to the ummm U.S. Treasury. "The national debt is the amount of money the federal government has borrowed to cover the outstanding balance of expenses incurred over time." https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/#:~:text=The National Debt Explained&text=money from federal income tax,-protected securities (TIPS) .
Nah this bull market is never ending. It really doesn't matter what the reason is. This market actually cannot sustain any selling. It really will go up forever. Even seeing a 5% drop would be the single greatest accomplishment in the history of the market. None of your issues would bring the market down. Most have been happening while the market continues to go higher. Market doesn't care about the Middle east or issues here or in China. Bank failures are bullish as they just merge with other banks and we know the will do whatever to avoid any systematic risk. The only thing would be if earnings ever dropped, but they won't and they will just find other stocks to pump to offset any weakness. So there's nothing that can bring this market down.
Good Morning orbit23, Long and strong sp500 index for life. I rather die before I ever sell the sp500 index. Long Only for life.
The Treasury is fully aware. But they are going to go on using the language you're familiar with. Otherwise you might call Yellen a "liar." Start calling our so-called "national debt" "ersatz debt" and see how many raised eyebrows that elicits.