To the poster of this thread all I can say is that you are dead ass wrong with your theory on being lucky to have success in the markets. Orderflow is what drives the markets one way or another. The fact that the orderflow might be buy side flow or sell side flow or a mix of both can make people think that the market is random when however it is just orderflow changing diretions (peoples opinion is changing). I myself make countless trades a day and trade hundreds of contracts a day in the futures markets and on a vast majority of those days I will have ZERO losing trades......thats right I said ZERO losing trades. You can't tell me that is because of luck??? If that was the case I would consider myself the luckiest man in the world, which I know I am not. Obviously your college education and the way society has made you think has lead you to believe that the market is indeed random and full of luck. All I can say is you don't seem to have the necassary skills, mindset, etc to make a living as a trader.
Although the original poster is dead wrong, to be fair it must be said that his situation and yours are quite different. The people to admire the most are the retail traders who make money consistently in the futures. They are the really skilled traders, and there are some right here on ET.
There are no short term profitable traders. Much less here, in ET. You have been misled that trading may be profitable, so you generate boatloads of commissions for brokers.
common sense? Actually because the market is random is is more likely you don't have a steady win rate of 60% everyday, but 100% one day and 0% the other day. So this is a meaningless statistic.
Let's say right now I give you $ 100 and tell you you can keep the $ 100 or risk losing the $ 100 that you already have plus another $ 50 of your own money or try for $ 150.00 A normal person would keep the $ 100, a profitable trader with an edge would risk losing the $ 100 plus $ 50 on top of that to make a possible $ 150.00. Now lets say the you are $ 1 from losing the full $ 50, but I tell you if you are willing to risk $ 50 more, you don't have to lose that $ 50, but can make a $ 50 profit on top of that. A normal person would risk the $ 50, but a trader would take the loss. Trading is against normal psychological instincts in the 1st place. In the 2nd place you need an edge which gives you a probability of success. This is why trading is hard, and why many will not succeed. It is also why even people who have an edge may not succeed.
"The market". About which market are you talking about ? Single stock market ( there are 1000's), derivatives markets ( there are 100's ), bond markets ( can't count ), currency markets... Lately, I observed the Brazilian Ibovespa Futures. Quite interesting "random" market http://www.bmf.com.br/portal/pages/frame.asp?idioma=2&area=contratos&link_char=Index1 and sovereign debt instruments, too... http://www.cmegroup-bmfbovespa.com.br/pages/eng/contracts/contracts.asp ay, ay, ay.....
This is why market isnât random: Itâs because its self-fulfilling prophesy. 1) Take 100,000 traders and one big roulette table. Let them play and although they are allowed to speak with each other, interchange information, their result will be random. Random because they have no influence, what so ever, on the outcome of the roulette. 2) Take the same 100,000 traders and a chart of the Stock. Let them trade the next move and the result will not be random. Because also here they are allowed to interchange information and they have learned the same Technical-analyses methods. This will enforce a not-random move and a self-fulfilling prophesy. They have in fact some influence on the outcome of the next move.