"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who donât have the guts to sometimes say: I donât knowâ¦." Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The point is that there were 18 and 23 in 250 to 300 boxes. It is not that there were 23 in a row that is interesting.
isnt there a thread in the oil futures section where someone called someone 'grasshopper' then promptly got their fucking head handed to them on a wrong long from 57 down to 35?
http://www.riskglossary.com/link/stable_paretian_distributions.htm The market is not random. All coin toss examples are pretty much useless in the context that you will never find 2 identical market participants (a head and a tail) such that the weight of the coin is exactly distributed. One participant will inevitably have a larger weight (skewness) to the market outcome due to the non linear functions which all participants are comprised of. Hence, there are trends in "random" data.
Not sure. I trade USD. In my neighborhood they consider them real. My trading method has nothing to do with this discussion.
Right. But, since you trade real money, I just wonder if you can teach us a method that works 100% of the time, since you believe markets are not random? Thanks.
The coin will never be "fair" in the sense your thinking of. You're implying a Gaussian distribution which is not what markets operate under.
Someone flys a plane into a building, but before they do, their friends buy put options on the airline stocks. The airline stocks go down, and their friends make profit, so is that random?