The market is not random

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ivanbaj, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. someone


    blessed be the man with many faces

    for he has imagination :cool:
    #11     Jan 7, 2009
  2. renko charts... priceless :)))))) and why not some ichimoku cloud combo while your at it? :))))))))))))))))))))))
    #12     Jan 7, 2009
  3. eagle


    There have been a lot of arguments in the past where one side believe in random and another side believe in unpredictable. I believe in unpredictable. Let me explain.

    Assuming the market as the weather. The weather is a kind of orderly chaotic, but not random. Meaning that you cannot predict a rain in one month ahead but you can be sure that there is no snow in Africa in the next month. Where random will not guarantee that there will be no snow in Africa in one month. As well Wall Street can expect ahead within a small margin of error a company will earn X dollar a share for its next quarterly report.

    #13     Jan 7, 2009
  4. The market isn't random. it obeys varous symetry equations, which are a function of scaled price, slope, and volume.
    #14     Jan 7, 2009
  5. Would it kill you to read a few books? If you toss a coin and it landed 12 times in a row "heads up" does it mean the coin tossing game is not random and/or you are in a "head trend"? Education, my friend, is a virtue.
    #15     Jan 7, 2009
  6. eagle


    You keep giving this unrealistic example. It depends on how many times you will toss in a set, if you toss only 25 times in a set then you will spend your entire life tossing coin to get the above combination, or maybe never.

    #16     Jan 7, 2009
  7. Have you ever heard of Quincunx or Sir Francis Galton? Or your education is optional for you?
    #17     Jan 7, 2009
  8. eagle


    No for the two authors. Yes, my education is optional for that kind of knowledge.

    By the way, is that your entry/exit will be determined as the way of tossing coin?

    #18     Jan 7, 2009
  9. You got it! Yes, in broad strokes my entries are more or less random, but they follow a stable distribution pattern. There is a huge difference between "random" and "normally distributed". But, I guess, the knowledge of this sort is optional to you.
    #19     Jan 7, 2009
  10. eagle


    So your belief is in "random" and your system is based on "normally distributed". Your belief and your system seem to be contradicting. Please justify that difference.

    #20     Jan 7, 2009