The market is not random

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ivanbaj, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. This is a renko chart of an actual future contract. It seems that there are about 250 boxes. I see that there are few big consecutive runs:

    18 up boxes
    23 up boxes

    Can someone calculate the probability of getting 18 and 23 consecutive runs within 250 tries?

    My calculations show that if there is 50% chance of getting an up or down box the probability of getting the above is very low.

    I see such runs very often. This is only one random sample.

    I say the market is not random. Does this mean that it is not efecient?
     
  2. It means that the market isn't normally distributed, not that it isn't random or efficient.
     
  3. Or maybe it's just because you posted a Renko chart that showed an uptrend, and thus had a couple of long consecutive up legs.

    Trending Renko charts are a hot mess. To see the yin to your chart's yang, see the attachment.
     
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  4. Here's a great one, a Renko crude chart. This chart is the tale of 2008.
     
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  5. someone

    someone

    market is RANDOM

    but you are too young to know

    give yourself few years grasshopper

    give it few years
     
  6. First, convince yourself blooming grasshopper. :)
     
  7. someone

    someone

    you have no idea who you are talking to

    banks would KILL to employ me
     
  8. Why? :)
     
  9. someone

    someone

    I know for a fact you ain't dumb

    what you don't know is that

    I ain't dumb either

    good trading to ya
     
  10. Hows it going jasonn? Bad I assume.
     
    #10     Jan 7, 2009