The market is near a tipping point

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Cruzan, Aug 10, 2007.

  1. Cruzan


    Having fallen from its 14K high, the Dow has now absorbed a correction to below 13 and a half, this being accepted by most for now as roughly closer to its current 'correct value.'

    Now as it dives much farther below that, close to 13,000, there is a massive battle underway between those who see recent losses as only a temporary correction, and now a bargain time to buy, and those who see the market on a cliff edge ready to fall to much lower values, and now a time to sell.

    As it presently stands, the buyers have the edge and further small movements downward have the effect of only increasing their number along with the historic levels of volatility we're seeing. At some point their edge will become decisive, volatility will dampen, and the market will begin to move back up.

    This assumes no further bad news on the subprime, and its repercussions, front. For this has been far and away the driving factor in the market's recent losses. With every new announcement that a hedge fund has collapsed or a bank is freezing lending as a direct or indirect consequence of the subprime mess, huge amounts of fear, and with it sellers, are sown. If this continues, and more importantly if business activity begins to recess because of a growing capital shortage, the market could truly enter a downward spiral as sellers take charge. And any sustained, even minor recession, will keep it down for many months at least.

    What will happen? Stay turned to the news.
  2. on the one hand, but then on the other, bla bla bla