The Government is now an investor and may have the ability to create bull markets. Henry Paulson is now the chief of the equivalent of a US $ 800 billion hedge fund. What might happen if this deal becomes profitable?
I'm not a historian, but I don't think you should compare any of these events. the world has changed in so many ways since 29. there are far far more people now who own company equities. Just in the last year web trading /DMA access has allowed even more people trading stocks. there is far more cash available. there are smarter people/agents taking part in the market. countries are now globally connected. governments are smarter too. everyone acts quicker and together. just look at all the central banks recenty. new markets, industries etc. it's a whole new world. there are millionairs, billionaires, Internet etc etc.. there always will be market bubbles and bears.. but a crash requires a tragic mistake.. until now if you look at how active government/policy makers have been there is little chance of a serious crash.. the market is sure trending downward - thats the business cycle and it will return.. I think the market will test new lows but I think it we're close to the end of all this..probably around xmas time..
Markets ride up and down. Simple as this is, that is the key. Overriding bear or bull conditions are a small matter. Therefore the longer term requirement is continued volatility. The only danger there could be is a bear market that becomes stagnant; that is where significant volatility would be often absent. There is no immediate evidence yet of this being likely to occur. Players should continue to concentate on exploiting markets day on day. The maximum offering of points is in the gyrations which make up the daily markets (eg ES,YM,CL). Go there. Apply an accurate methodology, begin the process of making money as a daily habit and work up a fast sequence of accumulating net gains.
Leh survived the great depression...so ben is right afterall, you can't use the 'R' or even 'D' word to describe the situation.