Discussion in 'Trading' started by bidask, Aug 19, 2009.
We went down over 50% peak to trough last year. The OP's chart has the initial leg much less than 50%.
I understand the human brain is a pattern matching engine, but this chart is a bit of a stretch..... You can just as easily say that that long multi-year stretch of "credit unavailable" in the chart was condensed into 12 months this time around.
first leg was a 51% decline from the peak of 388.7.
got to look at the little numbers on the right side of the chart.
Don't know if that's how it will play out but it's not out of the question.
Noboby I know has sold in the crash and everybody I've talked to want there stocks to go back to the highs so they can sell and buy less risky investments so they can retire.
I'm not sure the panic reached the PANIC levels everybody talks about.
bingo allen 3. nobody has sold anything. everyone i know wants all there money back and more. we never got real capitulation in 2003 or now. on the last drop into march vol was low and all selling was orderly. the problem is we don't know when another leg down comes and in the meantime early shorts are getting killed and going broke.
Then why not just overlay a chart of the last 18 months to the one you posted?
The period of 1932-1938 ( with the final low in 1942 ) is a pretty good analog.
Plenty of "two-way" trading, with 15-28% moves up and down during those years.
Perma-Bears got crushed.
Separate names with a comma.