It took me 53 years to figure that out, and 2 more to figure out how to implement it. And HatetheRisk's words ring SO true... "Once you're there, there is no market to defeat, you just trade what the market tells you - go with the flow."
Yes you are right about your point. But about my post, i have there another view. I know that my strategies will never change, WHY ? because, i backtested it over 30 years back in time and i would bet they ve worked for the last 100 years for example on wheat or whatever markets where there on this time. And i know they will work the next 50 years. WHY ? Because my strategies are simply sayed, i buy when price goes up and the opposite for short.....so its just listening to the market what he tells you...it is traded price itself.... If it should really not work at some point in the future, i easily can work out a few new strategies, just need to look at the price behaviour. I know the strategy creation process, i ve made a lot of strategys in my trading life, a lot, and i still always research on some new, not because i wanna trade them, no, because it interests me, to know more of price behaviour. greetings
do you work for a brokerage ? or do you be a trader ? you can make a fortune with both... but the second is much more relaxder.... dont you think ???
You answered your own reasons for losing. Trading is about experience, it is having all the answers before the questions, it is about staying awake late at night for years, it is giving up life that others enjoy and for you, you may never know. Markets don't beat you and does not make you wealthy but it can make you very poor, I been wiped out twice after making solid funds by inexperience and being a pig, greedy. Then one really learns pain and see how dumb I was. You have not learned Price structure, take ES for instance, it has a flow, it does moves in morning that is doesn't do much any other time, moves in afternoon does not happen in morning, why use stops at all? I know stats of past fourteen years of how far the market usually goes and reverses and I know how far in ticks for continuation of previous trend for afternoon session. You get back what you sow. "Wiggled"? So you don't have in place another signal to get you back into direction you were in? And if you don't get it, who cares, not worth chasing as they increases risk, or can go to smaller timeframe for another bite at the apple. Have you ever considered that instead of having wide stops, finding out what the "mean" of position going against signal, adding couple ticks and save risk, check out profitable trades and most likely find they become profitable very fast, and how long till it took to get to breakeven stops-then when this same amount of time goes by and position not at breakeven, new target is breakeven. People lose cause generally fall into one or both areas, horrible back testing abilities and mental, self. People don't test going back 5 years and few thousand occurrences for day trading and 25-50 years for daily/weekly term trading. They have $2,000 burning a hole in their pocket and just have to open an account instead of taking few years to learn. People lose as they are not prepared, uneducated. Just like how come some other business makes it and other 90% don't? Trading is a business but most don't even consider it as that.
Exactly! All you need to start trading is money. No need to proof any ability to trade, intelligence or anything else. This leads automatically to lots of problems. Trading is difficult and needs certain skills and education. If all the potential traders should have to pass a few tests, at least 80% would never be allowed to trade. With this test the statistics about failures would look completely different. The actual situation in trading can be compared to the following example: if you want to be a pilot at any airline you just get in the plane and pull a few handles. You don't need any education, the fact that you THINK you are qualified is enough for you to start flying. You played at your computer with Flightsimulator and reached a high score. And then people wonder why so many planes crash and conclude that flying is dangerous.
Until the lens of experience focuses information, it does almost no good. No matter how much the marketing machines of the Information Age would have us think otherwise, information by itself isn't power: knowledge is. And turning information into knowledge requires more time, experience, and effort than an afternoon spent starting at a screen full of facts. Information is passive. To make it knowledge, you need to assimilate it. Put it in context. Understand it. Knowledge streamlines and focuses our relationship with information. Knowledge helps us avoid information we don't want or need and leaves us with the stuff we can use. In an age in which endless amounts of bits and bytes are always available, it's a daunting task to spot the worthwhile stuff. It's easy for the Net to overwhelm us or lull us into the misconception that simply having access to something is as good as knowing it. -- Michael Penwarden