"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid"

Discussion in 'Economics' started by vanzandt, Dec 22, 2018.

  1. JSOP

    JSOP

    The market just does not care. It goes wherever it wants to go.
     
    #21     Dec 22, 2018
    Visaria likes this.
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Digging a little deeper and indeed, this chart seems to imply a further selloff is warranted.

    upload_2018-12-22_19-53-57.png
     
    #22     Dec 22, 2018
  3. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Damn... this is a cool website to bookmark if you ever need statistical data all in one place.
    http://www.multpl.com/sitemap
    Kinda made this whole thread worthwhile.
    Never know when one might need historic French unemployment data. :D
     
    #23     Dec 22, 2018
    They likes this.
  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    I'm trying to find a site that may give me the after hour/premarket plots along w/the day plot.....like 5 yr historical including ORTH. I know google and fidelity have it for roughly weekly plots but not longer.

    Help a brother out?/
     
    #24     Dec 22, 2018
  5. They

    They

    So 20% more sell off it is then.
     
    #25     Dec 22, 2018
  6. sle

    sle

    "Make volatility great again!"
     
    #26     Dec 22, 2018
    comagnum and Visaria like this.
  7. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    This is so true... but it applies to the BS stocks. The ones that retail players chase because they heard it on CNBC or something. I go back to NVDA again. Its a perfect example of that which you speak. Its textbook.

    It dropped as a matter of course... then had a mediocre ER/conference call... next thing you know it was $172. People bought it in droves, following that psychology. Next day it was like $160. Can't pass that up, gotta buy. A week later its in the $130's. There was a post on here where somebody was convinced it was going to $500. Said there was no way it couldn't.

    Most retail players (and I have to assume many professional players) are stupid.
    You buy value.
    Anything with a PE north of 50 is coming down.
    In 2008, it was brutal. Some high flyers took 50% haircuts. The stupid stocks. That era's equivalent of faang. But low PE companies that had tangible future growth like MCD, ROST, Amgen, Panera... hell they were up for the year. There are are dozens of companies that have consistent yoy increases in their stock prices since 1999. Use this: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/JNJ/johnson-johnson/stock-price-history

    What I am seeing now... both real time and in the market psyche as a whole in the last 2 weeks... is people throwing out the baby with the bathwater because they are being inundated with friggin brainwashing. Yeah... wake the f*ck up... NFLX was a PIG. Twilio trades at like 300 times the next century's estimated earnings. Its $70 now because $100 was a little too "op-ti-f'n-mistic". Ya think? Duh.


    So whatever. Who cares anyway. This is Elite Trader, not Elite Investor.
    Trade what you see. But lets not tell our not so sanguine friends and family the sky is falling and they need to be all cash or buying gold for Christsake.... because America is just fine. Look around. "Feel the economy". :D
    (queue Lee Greenwood)
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2018
    #27     Dec 22, 2018
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. sss12

    sss12

    Wrong..the equites market are not zero sum. Just like RE..If your house drops in value some one did not profit. And no, the guy who sold it did not profit. RE or equities. Commod and some futures are different.
     
    #28     Dec 22, 2018
    murray t turtle and Ayn Rand like this.
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    You know why J&J keeps going up for eternity? Because of two things...Johnson's Baby Shampoo (the no-tears stuff), and Band-Aids™.

    Everyone has babies, so they need baby shampoo. The babies get a bit older and scrape their knees and elbows and then need band-aids. It is a genius plan. I think they are trying to take over the world with this plan.

     
    #29     Dec 22, 2018
  10. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    That was merely a link to a useful website that provides info on historical prices. JNJ was where my browser was at the time.
    That one is more than likely going down btw. Go balls deep short intraday this week when it hits the previous highs. If you want a crystal ball on how to play JNJ... pull up a 2 year chart of EFX. It'll be a close parallel.

    Who's getting MAGA hats for Xmas is what I wanna know. :D
     
    #30     Dec 22, 2018