Lately I have had difficulty swingtrading because divergences in technical indicators have not had their usual result. For example, the NASDAQ keeps rising although there has been a divergence in the daily MACD histogram which indicated the NASDAQ was losing momentum. Anyone else been having this problem? I have been puzzling over this and am interested in possible explanations. A recent article by Tom Calandra gives one: the Fed CAN manipulate the market. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/sto...e&guid={B3DC2603-5AAA-4AE2-80DF-6A4B1C588C39} Any thoughts on this? Anyone have other possible explanations?
I've been thinking the same thing. The market bounces at key technical points where it should drop, making you think someone knowledgeable is propping up the house of cards. I'm glad I don't rely on my market opinions to trade or I'd be broke. Here's a couple links to stories on the subject: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/market_manipulation.html http://zolatimes.com/V1.1/ConMen.html
fast.. im not an expert on technical indicators.. but the market is in an uptrend on the daily.. ive noticed the loss of momentum as well and was actually short the qqq's against the top of the triangle formed on the 60's which stopped me out for a small loss during the surge this afternoon.. normally i would have reversed the position but i wasnt feeling well and packed it up for the day.. but, thats what i get for trading against the trend.. according to Dow theory a trend is in effect until a clear signal is given that it has reversed.. until that uptrendline is broken, the market is still trending up.. i dont think its manipulation.. just support/resistance in an uptrend.. this is what i see in the chart.. take it with a grain of salt, im not that good at this yet.. if anyone with more experience would like to shed some light it would be welcome.. -qwik
AAAintheBeltway, Great point!! My answer is that the MACD histogram with the NASDAQ is just one example with one index. Recently I have seen examples for multiple indicators involving numerous stocks.
ddefina, Thanks for your links. I have been very resistant to considering the possibility that the markets can be manipulated, and even more resistant to considering that they sometimes actually are. And frankly, the links you posted send a mixed message to me. These sites do not seem like reliable sources because of their art work and/or some of the wording. I tend to favor academic sources and formats. However, I do not want to be so set in my opinions and beliefs that I refuse to consider other possibilities. I hope other people at this forum will confirm or disconfirm that the futures actually jumped around as reported in these links. If they did, then I am wondering about possible explanations. As I consider the issue of market manipulation, here is one of the things that troubles me. This is a quote from Richard Russell in the Calandra article (link in my initial post on this thread): "The Enron (ENE: news, chart, profile) mess hit the markets, some indices that I follow were right on the edge, and normally I would have expected the markets and the various averages to follow through on the downside," Russell said last week in his newsletter. (See 10-day SPY and DIA charts.) "But lo and behold, buying came in at the opening and the market pushed higher."
I'm with you on this one. This is one of the lamest things I've read: "What is happening is that as the masses (read public) dump their millions of shares, someone, presumably the "POWERS WHO BE" is propping the market up. The depth of the ticks are showing that the price is being dumped, but someone is buying them back as fast and even faster than they are being dumped. To elevate the price to create the illusion that the share is not falling, but in fact going up. They must buy at a faster rate than they are being sold at. Someone dumps a large parcel and the price falls, then the "RAMPERS" RAMP the price back up. This is occurring for periods of up to 1/2 hour." http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/market_manipulation.html It's just buying and selling...not manipulation. The "Powers Who Be" are not going to stick their necks out to create illusions on a large scale.
>"But lo and behold, buying came in at the >opening and the market pushed higher." Quite a conspiracy they've got going there. I find I trade much better when I just don't worry *why* the buyers come in, but simply acknowledge their existence and trade accordingly JB