There is only one way to make money in the Stock Market, and that is; when you get filled the price has to move above your fill price, for longs (opposite for shorts), and stay there for a period of time so that you can close the trade for profit. Understanding Order Flow, allows one to determine the degree of probability in relation to the price moving, and staying above / below your fill price !
After 56 pages of shit flinging retarded comments with very little "content" I am dropping out and enrolling into another school. Good luck all. It was fun when it started. See you at the finish line.
Exactly! It's like trading a trend. Trends do occur but if you need a trend to make money you will only know one exists well after the fact. When you start believing the trend is your friend it will end. You have to be ahead of the curve to win. You have to be able to anticipate what will happen next and why.
Past the edit cutoff....when I say studies I mean studies by banks, economists, academics etc. into order flow and markets behaviour NOT squiggly line studies.
I didn't know that. I decided to not use probability because, if you do, it introduces a thing called risk. I am very risk adverse (skaredy cat). I trhink of trading as a series of one way streets and intersections. Each turn has signs which tell you which way to go. Streets that I see do not have probability signs or anything like that. I am not knowledgeable about any thing to do with probability except that its application to trading is not necessary. I just trade in the present and use the data available in the present.
Past the edit cutoff....of course when I say studies I mean studies by banks, economists, academics etc. into order flow and markets behaviour NOT squiggly line studies.
You need to be able to count ! Lines are for amateurs ! It is no use anticipating something if you do not have a strict set of rules to prevent you from giving back profits. Most traders think the secret to know is how to make money, but a few know that the real secret is knowing how to hold on to the money you make ! For as you rightly say, any noobie can make money trading, after all, the only thing he has to do, is buy or sell at a certain price, and then sell or buy, when the price has moved in his favor. Even a 4 year child can do this if you sit the child down at a PC and show him / her the buttons to click !
That is what is true for you. Others do differently, they are operating ahead of the curve as you would say. Since there is a choice, it is more natural to be a front runner as a way of eliminating any risks.
The Flow of Big Orders ! Where does it start, and have we got the remaining class act members yet ? Must go, but we will continue this at a later time. We must not confuse the process of Order Flow with pure volume, as when some big orders are placed, there are more than just stock transactions taking place ! Remember, we have the following to consider: Mr & Mrs Gullible have given their hard earned money to General Custard. The only thing General Custard wants is a cut of that money. The only thing that Slick Nik, Sneaky Nas, Couvert Ian and Charlie Bottle want, is another cut of that money. And then you have the penny pinchers trying to get a cut as well. It is no wonder that poor Mr & Mrs Gullible are running out of heating oil for the winter
Here is the secret to trading. First, admit you have no idea what will happen next because each successive tick is random. Second, take a trade when the probability is winning is heavily in your favor. Third, take a partial when you have a nice profit to manage risk. Fourth, leave a runner on because you have no idea how the trade will turn out. Case in point, the attached trade. I took an 8 lot long at 87.50 for no other reason than we just dropped 16 points without much or a bounce or correction. I took 6 off at +2 points for 2 reasons. First, taking profits (simple), and, second, to manage risk. Could this beast have gone lower? Of course. Now that I have my 6 lot off I really and truely don't care what happens next. If we go lower I DONT stop out. I'm putting those 6 contracts back to work at some point. If we don't go lower I let the 2 that I still have on run, and run, and run, for as long and as far as it wants to run. This strategy is pretty simple. Only fight when the odds of winning are in your favor. Take a partial victory because if your opponent is stronger than you suspected you'll lose hard. If you take a partial victory you have plenty or reserves in hand to fight a harder fight. Repeat after me, "I don't know what will happen next." Now develop a trading plan that incorporates that FACT. The good news, you don't have to know what will happen next. You only have to know what will "probably" happen next. Now we're sitting on 92.00 and I got in at 87.50. I just took a partial on another contract and will trail the bottoms on the last 1. I have nice profit locked in by just letting the market do it's thing and forgetting the rest. Take profits like a fool and forget the rest