HATE BEING CONSERVATIVE! What happened yesterday I was so deep in research I didn't check the board... just normal back n fill? Anyway lets hope so. According to one source Tactical Trading- Wednesday produced the sharp decline wave {d} down needed, and stopped right about where the triangle retained its matching slope, rising and declining boundaries, suggesting wave {d} down is complete. Thursday should see wave {e} up start. It could be a 200 to 500 point bounce. The 30 minute and 15 minute Full Stochastics are oversold, suggesting prices should rise Thursday, in line with the pattern requirements. A rise above 9,750 would blow up the triangle scenario and suggest that wave a-down from all-time highs October 2007 bottomed on October 10th, and a multi-month rally has started. If we are looking for further guidance as to the odds that this triangle will realize its downside target, and not follow the small 5 percent chance it could represent a bottom, on page 12 we see the triangle pattern evident in the NDX. It is not a symmetrical triangle, but is a descending triangle. Descending triangles are high probability Bearish patterns, which lead to declines. Blue Chips should move in sync with the NDX. While we are intensely focused on this dangerous potential the triangle wave 4 scenario presents, we need to point out that once the subsequent wave 5 completes, perhaps in the 6,000's, a huge dramatic rally will follow, wave b-up. It should last several months and be an excellent opportunity to go long. We just don't know at this point if it started already, on October 10th, or will from much lower levels a few weeks from now. But a rise above 9,750 suggests it has already started and is likely headed for 11,000 to 12,000. A drop below 7,882 suggests we are likely headed for the 6,000's first. >>> Yikes Dow 6000? first lets hope not. Someone else charted 5000 today on TV... these are truly good signs I'm sure. Every big bear market rally has started this way with the panic spike and then the pull back. ORLY is remarkably stable. Drifted down 50 cents to $22 where it found buyers again... next year this is going to be a huge institutional name, the story is just too good for mutual fund mangers and bankers... Expose myself to a $19 print? Why not I feel like buying something. I've been working BLK very hard... could this be the one,.... the one you buy in size and ACTUALLY PUT AWAY> I think so the conference call is long but well worth reading, there is much globally to like about this company as well as near term stuff with the TARP which I believe they will be involved with in a prosperous way. ADM.... the old snail. I know. These are not usual picks from me... what of FSYS SGMS or perhaps ITRI? Why not make some real money and just ride POT up today??? Psychologically debilitating this market is... when I'm digging through Diageo 7% notes something has gone terribly wrong....~ stoney
HEY WHAT UP I LOST A STAR IT WAS 4 AND NOW IT'S 3!!!! WHO DID THAT! TELL ME... Ok here we bets are in I went long and hard on BLACKROCK GOD HELP ME FOLKS.... $108 level... I'm going to print the email exchange here so you all can see what I deal with... stoney- nasty earnings for the group, I read through the conference call with Blackrock, it had impressive aspects. Do you have a thought on the name here at new 52 week lows? ADM seems so boring but it got another upgrade today. ORLY is a car parts play sort of recession proof.... These are my ideas! ~ ben answer from hedge fund manager who can't believe he has to email stoney back- Really tied up at the moment....back when able...is there anything you want done now? ... I'm not making this stuff up folks... I know the world and probably his fund is crashing they were out and got back in and then the down... it must be tough. CRACK THE WHIP BOYS I JUST TOOK A BIG RISK - BLK - we are sitting on 3 day declining tops (the market not BLK) don't break my heart again mother market I gave you more money today PLEASE!!! and whoever had the balls to take away a star from this thread.... the only living. breathing reality left in this stock market- OUTRAGE!!! Other Buys to think about- ORLY ADM (can change in POT if you are ST) HERE WE GO YES 300 POINTS IN TEN MINUTES YES YES YES IT'S ALL BECAUSE OF MY BUY I'M SURE OF IT it took so much guts on my part, I'm living in fear baby... I've got a mega real bad sinus infection too and still I slave all day for you...... SGMS FSYS* ( This is the sexy one I might try ) Gold down HUGE today silver UP AGAIN 2nd day!!!!! THE PRICE DISPARITY IS CLOSING SHOULDN'T SLV start going up!!!!!! Oh this last ten minutes are going to be the longest of my life if we turn over again after I JUST PUSHED in... that will be it.... That might really be it.... the leaf that broke stoney's back. ~ stoney
Of course once I'm pushed against the wall and feel so small that I step up and buy something just to prove I sometimes will - then I get the analysis Done. The only issues that comes to mind about BLK is that transparency isvery limited, valuation was ridiculously high at the IPO, and thereprobably still is an insider share overhang that those who own it and leveraged up too much might have to still liquidate. But my info is dated. Don't pass this stuff around folks it's hard being me... I FREAKIN BOUGHT FSYS TOO!!!! It's a challenge now my maddnesss, my sanity this market... it's on... FSYS $28.70 I think, maybe cheaper.... Still want SGMS & ADM & ORLY and I've started work on AMAG pharm again; interesting stock about to finally get it's day in the sun it looks like over the next 6 months.... ~ stoney
USE MUSIC USE MUSIC TURN IT UP FAZE ACTION IS WORKING FINALLY DON'T WATCH THE TV AND WE WILL PUCH THROUGH HIGHER AT THE CLOSE.... FAZE ACTION PRESENTS ABSTRACT FUNK DEAD LYMERICS IS WORKING!!!!!!!
Strange strange day. There was TV aided angst as chartest's were about and the DOW 5,000 word was said on CNBC....CNBC planned their day around a big down day... Cramer ran an ad about protecting money and bam. Straight up. Another charter had indicated somewhere slightly above 6,000 earlier on Bloomberg, so there was great negativity in the air... that's a reversal day you can be proud of... and everything about this sharp bear rally is perfectly intact, that's the funny thing. Despite us all being out on the ledge. Yesterday it was endless new CDO's and maybe a trillion more we owed .... I couldn't even grasp what they were saying... today it's WAMU stuff sold pretty good. This was good news and delivered as bad of course. This was insurance on Lehaman going bankrupt I think, not mortgages but the insured are getting some cash. Decent amount. Now imagine how these mortgage backed ones, some with only 1-3% non pay rates are going to fare.... that will ignite this market... this LIBOR led rally- all eyes back on that tomorrow thanks to Intel earnings-... this Libor rally will very much turn into the TARP rally soon.... All is recovering it would seem, the banks are stable, Money Markets fine... it's just stocks and corporate debt, we are just swimming in our own murk alone... There is that annoying factor, that it all happened so damn fast, we have been frozen in our positions... so the overwhelming feeling is always " alas , it's too late to sell... " instead of " sell, sell, sell... " There has not been a classic purge despite the purge.That's dangerous. The added selling of CEO's who leveraged to buy shares... and hedge funds meeting forced redemptions & mutual fund outflows....and a lack of any real buyers it all resulted in the tsunami of credit woes and rapidly shrinking market we have now. Seminal day though, when you see Alan Greenspan; uncle AL, get yelled at and made to admit that what he spent his whole life believing was somehow flawed. That he was wrong. Weird, sad Stuff. Goodnight. Some more On SILVER- Demand for coins and bars remains strong, setting up the metal for a rally through next spring. Recent action made silver's price even more attractive. At one point December silver was up $1.03 an ounce for the week, as global stock markets melted on credit-crisis fears. But silver then got caught up in selling across commodities in the final hour of trading, to settle Friday at $10.60, down by 72.5 cents, or 6.4% on the week. (it's since fallen to $9.50! ~si) Silver futures are off 46% from a mid-July high of $19.705 an ounce, and hit an interim low of $10.31 in September). Coin and bar sales have been so robust -- the U.S. Mint now is rationing American Eagle coins -- that dealers say they can't meet small-investor demand. "That's going to continue, because the economic problems the world is facing...are probably going to get worse," says Jeffrey Christian, managing director of commodities researcher CPM Group. "Sooner or later, physical trumps paper [markets] and the price of silver goes back up sharply." Analysts look for the price of the white metal to rise to between $14.50 and $24 by the end of next year's first quarter. silver historically was viewed as currency before gold. Silver lagged in the past month, since it relies on demand, unlike a monetary asset, says Bart Melek, BMO Capital Markets commodity strategist. Uses include jewelry, dentistry, electronics and more. "Those will be impacted by the slowdown globally in manufacturing and consumer spending," Melek adds. When the economy turns around, it should add luster to silver by increasing industrial demand, analysts say. Furthermore, newer uses for silver are replacing lost photography demand. Silver conducts electricity at lower heat loads than other metals, and is used in laptops, cellphones and iPhones. One sign of investment is that holdings in iShares Silver Trust (ticker: SLV), an exchange-traded fund, hit 200 million ounces for the first time in July, and were up to 220 million on Thursday. And Stoney is probably buying it tomorrow.
IT'S GOING TO BE A GREAT DAY! S&P interday low 865.83 yesterday beats the previous interday low of 839.80! Closing lows were HIGHER lows as well. If the 875 area does not hold today- the world will look bleak indeed. We shall crawl back though folks! I know this could of been the day to break me... I awoke with futures down limit and yesterday I invested like an idiot dolt... so I deserve what I get and perhap what I will get soon is a real job. But having never really had one that will be difficult... Caddy in golf, house painter, DJ, Film & Video assistant, writer... I have held positions in all of these fields... at a much younger age... perhaps now I am only qualified for taste tester of various buds and aromas... A down day today and that seems all but certain will bust us out of this symmetrical triangle we posted about earlier in this thread & that will not be good... we are looking fore the next BIG direction here and that cannot and will not be down... although most models show it WILL be down... I refuse to believe that because it's just too damn depressing. REMEMBER forced selling comes back the quickest! It's little solace now but the TED Spread is heading in the right direction. 1 month LIBOR has peaked at around 4.59%. , why is the market not celebrating this fact more as many an investment has been placed because of this fact?? Another big dip down is needed to catch everyone's attention mid day today and kick some of the world panic out of this market. Even the 3 month T is moving correctly- it now HAS A YIELD! A 1% er! but it was near ZERO recently.... The Symmetrical Triangle pattern has convinced some that there is a 2,000 point move coming, starting now, or at most by early next week. Question is, which direction. This is always the problem with this stuff... the breakout or breakdown will be at least equal to the widest leg of the triangle which was 1900 points... that's how the 2000 point move prediction comes about.... so 2000 DOWN or 2000 UP, which will it be folks??? I have been told there is a near certainty it will be down that is why I have been investing the other way... I will ride the DOW today when I find my entry point and prey for the best outcome... even if it's only a 10% chance of it... Eliot Wavers I think if we do break would call it the middle stage of the Mega Bear... but the Eliot Wavers do not have the PLUNGE PROTECTION team on their side! I told you all once my conspiracy thinking on this as we head into the elections but what better time for them to act then now??? Will the Team buy today and next week and trigger a short covering rally that takes us up 2000 points instead of down? And is this an effort to influence the election... I'll leave the answers to you... If we break down we will go to 7,000 first and I will jump out of my third story window. And not see the next 1000 points. I'm betting on a rise up above to about DOW 9,600 for the elections... I'm very late for a meeting well it's a workout,, but think of this... Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite settled at fresh five-year closing lows, but held above their intraday lows of October 10. With patterns such as the "symmetrical triangle," it's not uncommon to see an intraday "shakeout" below support, or above resistance, before the price pattern reverses in the opposite direction. As in UP! If we could just claw back and close HIGHER today it would be huge. If new lows are broken, we will plunge to test support at the Oct 10 lows.... This is an ovious area of support and the computers should buy by themselves here... if they don't we are GOING all the way down to 2002 bear market levels ... which is about where the S&P earnings power is at... but like I said I will be but a stain on the sidewalk at that time. IT's GREAT TO BE AN AMERICAN INVESTOR! IT'S GOING TO BE A GREAT DAY! REALLY GLAD I STEPPED INFRONT OF THIS YESTERDAY! ~ stoney
Boy stoney has earned his keep today. I really should get that fifth star back, I'm sure it was there for a moment and then taken away..... Let's HIGHLIGHT AMAZON NOW: Since my mom bought it I'm watching after earnings which any right minded person knew was going to be bad... it was out there the stock reacted great had a 10% sell off and came all the way back to EVEN! Today again it found a lot of buyers range $44-$52... that's twice now she's plunged lower before probing higher.... When things get normal folks, if it ever does this is a new leader. I'm going to jump at the next $48. SOX went positive ladies and gents despite the terrible numbers and guidance for the 4th out of most of tech... this group wants to move because the Hedgies still in the game want to own it. QLGC @ $11 anyone????? POT is a daytaders delight and heart attack..... $9 off the low, you need only capture $4 of that to have a good day.... Terra had real nice earnings... TRA they sell Ammonia to the ferts.... I know this a very controversial call-- how can you be down 70% and not completely broken???? I still like these names! MOS especially..... Jimmy Bowtie Rodgers Agrees! (in general) Hedge Fund has gotten back in topuch more formally about my ideas,,, they do like the O'REILLY one, ORLY, though I'm sure they use AZO; this space is very recession friendly. Blackrock they said will move with the market which is what I felt so if we get a 2000 point move up I'll be sitting pretty and if things go the other way..... -THE 10% SOLUTION- There was only a 10% chance of us breaking up I figure by combining various theories.... there is a stat today you won't believe folks...-New lows outpace new highs by an astounding negative ratio of 1045 to 1!!!!!!!!!! What is that 1? Ah who the F* cares.... 10% and we are that 10 it seems friends. I'm playing It's A Beautiful Day by U2 and not believing it.... might have to go back to what was working yesterday- Faze Action.... thank god for IPOD's... never thought I'd say that-- which brings us to Apple... here's another tug of war stock that looks like it want's to have an upside resolution.... but for various reasons I like AMZN better. ~ stoney
Interesting LIBOR stuff from "moneymorning blog " whoever they are! ~si The LIBOR decrease has helped ease some investor demand for U.S. Treasury bills â considered the ultimate in safe investments. The yield on the three-month T-bill surpassed 1.0% for the first time in nearly two weeks, rising to 1.12% yesterday from 0.82% late Friday. The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned $25 billion in three-month bills at a discount grate of 1.25%, up from 0.50% last week, and another $26 billion in six-month bills at a discount rate of 1.80%, up from 1.10% last week, The AP reported. Those higher rates for short-term government debt suggest âcontinued healing in the credit markets,â Tony Crescenzi, an analyst with Miller Tabak & Co. LLC., wrote in a research note to clients yesterday. As investment funds slowly take money out of safe assets, they are turning to assets that carry a bit more risk â presumably for a better return. Indeed, Miller Tabakâs Crescenzi noted that yesterdayâs mortgage-backed securities market signaled âincreased risk taking.â And the market for commercial paper â the unsecured debt that companies sell for short-term financing â continued to improve. Commercial paper rates were generally down 0.20 to 0.40 percentage points for key issuers tapping the market Monday, including American Express Co. (AXP), General Electric Co. (GE), HSBC Finance (ADR: HBC), AT&T Corp. (T) and The Coca-Cola (KO), Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income at Morgan Keegan & Co. Inc. (RF), told The AP. Just a few weeks ago, even stronger companies like AT&T were having trouble selling paper for longer than overnight. Now, investors are starting to step in and buy paper with 30-day and 60-day maturities, Morgan Keeganâs Giddis said. On Oct. 27, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to start buying commercial paper from issuers that canât find buyers in the market. Against this still-slightly-uncertain credit-market backdrop, companies are going out of their way to broadcast their financial strength â and ability to be financially flexible â to the capital markets. For instance, engineering-and-construction giant The Shaw Group Inc. (SGR) said it was able to amend its credit facility so it can use up to $200 million as collateral for letters of credit. Trucking company Werner Enterprises Inc. (WERN) emphasized that it is a âdebt-free company.â And U.S. toymakers Mattel Inc. (MAT) and Hasbro Inc. (HAS) both underscored they have little debt on their books and have plenty of cash available.
Interesting piece on Muni yields from Smartmoney- ~si Municipal Bond Yields Are Staggering THE CREDIT MARKET'S woes are benefitting one group: buyers of municipal bonds, who have seen prices plunge and yields soar. Munis, some of which offer long-term tax-free yields topping 6%, have almost never looked so attractive, relative to U.S. Treasuries. "The market is way undervalued," says Laura Milner, a portfolio manager at SCM Advisors in San Francisco. "It's more the result of liquidity than credit problems. You don't have to stretch in terms of credit quality to get high yields." She favors state general-obligation bonds and revenue bonds for essential services, like water and sewers. The market has been hurt by selling pressure from hedge funds, issuers of structured notes and mutual funds, which have been experiencing redemptions. Buyers have been scarce, with retail investors now the main source of demand. The problem is that individuals can absorb only so much supply. There also is concern that the weakening economy will lead to gaping budget deficits at state and local governments, hurting the credit quality of municipal debt. Investors can take comfort, however, in the fact that munis historically have had much better credit performance than corporate bonds. Even during the Great Depression, no state defaulted on its general-obligation bonds, and overall muni default rates remained very low. Just last week, 30-year bonds backed by the triple-A-rated Texas Permanent School Fund (PSF), one of the premier muni guarantors, were sold at a yield of 6.25%. Double-A-rated New York City issued $500 million of general-obligation bonds at a top yield of 6.40%. Top-grade 10-year debt recently has been yielding 5% or more. "The yields are staggering," says Jim Evans, who heads the muni investment group at M.D. Sass in New York. Evans points to the top yield on the Texas PSF bonds and to recent secondary-market offerings in which 20-year pre-refunded California GOs traded at a yield of 5.85%. Pre-refunded bonds probably are the safest bonds in the muni market because they're secured by U.S. Treasuries. Long-term debt from other top issuers, like Harvard University, yields nearly 6% A 6% muni yield is equivalent to a 10% taxable yield for residents of high income-tax states like California, New Jersey and New York. This assumes that residents buy in-state bonds. Tax-equivalent yields for out-of-state bonds are around 9%. The allure of munis could grow if presidential front-runner Barack Obama wins the election because he has vowed to raise taxes on Americans making more than $250,000 a year. Some analysts expect Obama to seek to lift the maximum income-tax rate to 40% from the current 35%, which now applies to married couples earning over $357,700 a year. The 5.9% yield on 30-year, AAA-rated munis now is roughly 135% of the 4.3% yield on the 30-year Treasury. That's by far the highest ratio in the past 20 years, exceeding the prior peak of 115% set early this year. Long-term municipals historically have yielded slightly less than Treasuries because of the tax benefits. Despite weak demand for long-term issues, California just sold $5 billion of short-term revenue-anticipation notes maturing in 2009, including $3.8 billion of eight-month notes at a 4.25% yield. That yield is very attractive, relative to the 1% rate on Treasury bills. The interest is tax-free to California residents, who face a punishing state income-tax rate of 9.3% for couples earnings over $93,000 annually and 10.3% for income above $1 million. Muni issuance has slowed dramatically this month as state and local governments have heeded the advice of investment bankers to wait for a more receptive market. If demand picks up -- and high yields could create demand -- supply might be easily absorbed, and market conditions could improve quickly, as they did after a sell-off in February and March. Investors have plenty of ways to play the muni market, including individual bonds, open-end mutual funds, closed-end funds and relatively new exchange-traded funds like the iShares S&P National Muni Bond (MUB: 96.44, +0.17, +0.17%). Well-run open-end funds include the $19 billlion Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt (VWITX) and the Bernstein Diversified Municipal (SNDPX), which have held up well this year, as well as Legg Mason Partners Managed Municipals (SMMOX), co-run by veteran Joe Deane, one of the best managers in the business. Closed-end muni funds beckon because they came under extreme selling pressure early this month, with many finishing Friday, Oct. 10, at record discounts of 30% or more to their net asset values, way above the typical level of no more than 10% or 15%. Exchange-traded closed-ends rallied sharply last Monday, and their discounts now generally are below 20%. The accompanying table lists a few closed-end funds now trading at double-digit discounts and yielding more than 7%. The high closed-end yields reflect the discounts and leverage. Many funds buy $3 of bonds using $2 of investor funds and $1 of borrowings. The leverage results in higher volatility than is common at open-end funds; year-to-date total returns of many closed-ends were a negative 20% or worse at mid-week, according to Morningstar, versus declines of around 10% for many long-term open-end funds. The losses to closed-end investors have been even greater than 20% because market prices often slip more than NAVs, on which the reported performance data are based. There's a risk that some closed-ends will reduce leverage, diminishing their yields. Probably the hardest-hit big municipal fund this year is the $5.9 billion Oppenheimer Rochester National Municipals (ORNAX), which was off 37% through Thursday, by far the worst showing among the 50 largest open-end muni funds. The aggressive fund aims to generate high yields through ownership of low-rated or unrated munis. It buys gamier securities like land-development bonds, tobacco bonds backed by state revenues from the 1998 mass settlement with major cigarette companies, airport-revenue bonds and "inverse floaters," whose yields move in the opposite direction of short-term rates. With muni short rates elevated, prices of inverse floaters have come under pressure. Prices of bonds in the Rochester portfolio have fallen sharply as investors favor high-grade munis with ratings of AA and higher. "I've been doing this since the late 1970s, and this is by far the worst I've seen it. It's an ugly market out there," says Ron Fielding, senior portfolio manager of the fund. Because of recent investor redemptions, Oppenheimer's Rochester has been forced to sell bonds in an illiquid market. Fielding says the good news is that the credit quality of both the Oppenheimer Rochester National Municipals fund and the larger $9 billion New York-oriented Rochester Fund Municipals (RMUNX) is strong with minimal defaults. The main near-term risk is that the funds will need to sell more bonds to meet additional redemptions. The national fund's current yield now stands at 10%. Reflecting the investor preference for high-grade munis, the yield gap between triple-A and triple-B munis has widened to a near-record two percentage points.
If stonedinvestor took all his gibberish posts and combined them it would be longer than War and Peace.