The Libor Led Rally*

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Oct 20, 2008.

  1. Hello everyone. I was faced with a dilemma this morning. Continue a great thread I had closed but which got some late snarky comments that deserve a verbal beat down.... or start afresh.

    As my first want is always to help others & since each week is different I have decided to start fresh.

    Where are we now? Well we are in that phase of a bottom when those that have missed so much must be tempted in... the market is going up. Furthermore there are other outside forces some political that will see to it we rise a bit into the election... Certainly we can't be below 10,000 at poll time! Go ahead cut and paste that to goad me later I don't care... I firmly believe some good stuff happened earnings wise over the last five years... to have all of that gone from all of us... it doesn't seem right.

    There is a dangerous game going on now and I would compare it to when the market has several slightly up days in a row only to have all of that wiped out in one big down day. Now it's 3 month LIBOR... I explained how traders are watching this number by the tic on the floor and several market comebacks have been preceded by an interday turn down by LIBOR... still in the big picture it has been moving at a snails pace... like several small up days... and were it's gains be wiped out in one move.... well it's deep in the soup time for all of us.

    SO TODAY is the day I have been waiting for a significant % down in LIBOR and the market SHOULD respond with an up 300 day... the only fly in the ointment is the wall street journal did some good reporting evidently late Friday on JP Morgan doing some intentional moves somewhat against the grain that was done to effect LIBOR down... you might say a payback to Paulson... I have not read this piece so I shouldn't comment but the specter of these huge banks, GOV controlled and what they can do behind the scenes is of course scary.

    ENERGY MONDAY.... We got you all into the Nat gas plays last week, not sure why but I continue to prefer them... Apache.... always a great stk, we'll be looking there.

    AND IF YOU DID NOT BUY MOS on Friday's pull in MY GOD DO IT NOW! ~ stoney
  2. einai


    "Certainly we can't be below 10,000 at poll time! Go ahead cut and paste that to goad me later I don't care..."

    I agree that we may see a rally into the election.

    I remain sceptical about genuine upside for some time, however, for the following reason: valuations have only begun to return to sane levels (single digit P/E's). Any significant rally would be predicated on a return to pre-meltdown levels.

    But why would anyone be prepared to pay those prices when there is no reason whatsoever to believe that the medium-term looks good?

    I don't think the country has yet fully grasped how vicious this downcycle is going to be, and hopefulness regard the market near-term is a symptom of that yearning for the times before Ralph Cioffi (my former boss) and BSC hit the news.

  3. Part of the danger is that by focusing on LIBOR you can have a back up there... but also that by watching that lending rate so closely we are missing the big picture state to state in the Muni market & corporate market.
    Those higher yield offerings all that makes the US tick is of course still frozen up but you don't hear about that.

    Poor China... Poor poor China, I had to lose SO MUCH DOLLARS THERE and all because their growth, their great growth is only a mere NINE %!!!!!! Oh USters, when is the last time you had 9%!!!! So silly, this is why we went into HBC bank... it's where they play... who knows about the stocks anymore, their investors may feel truly burned, imagine losing everything and having an economy at a 9% clip! At least here at home the economy truly sucks and that is reflected in stock prices. This can only be good news for the Ag and commodity plays we correctly called the bottom of last week... Might we have to re look at those damn DryBulk carriers.... DRYS took me to the chopping block once already.

    AGU, Agrium is interesting here @ $37.... still the Watch list is light. VRTX came out with a PR Hold your breath folks... it seems like good news... we bought that one Friday- this is a stock you want to own...

    MOS AGU APA DRYS VRTX.... I don't know there is an element of depression here... hard to make a case for any tech... Nat gas up 3%! This is becoming a bit of a pile on... now the self questioning starts with such outsized gains in SWN & GMXR can we continue to hold? Tough decisions.

    I hope this all becomes clearer soon. DOW is floundering which is good, we don't want the whole 300 right off the open... that's a death trap... let's slow and steady build to about up 170 at lunch and then just hang around until the last half hours and put on another 150 then. ~ stoney
  4. Leading economic Indicators not half bad!

    One way to invest is to of course try and not follow the crowd but it times of brain lock revisit some research tools or articles I'm thinking in this case of Forbes best small companies list which has several I favor... GEOI, QSII and PETS....

    Now I'm not embarrassed to tell you I DO make decisions based off some strange concepts like a " Force of 3 " If a stock I am researching comes up 3 times in scans all different.. I buy it.. and just everyday living- My dog has been killing me with trips to the vet and so $ wise I've been thinking about pet medicine a lot and in fact I had written down PETS to research last week and never got to it which is to bad because they crushed earnings this morning.
    PetMed was # 5 on the Forbes list.

    PetMed Express, the Pompano Beach, Fla. company that does business as 1-800-PetMeds, sells nonprescription medications and other products for dogs, cats and horses: collars, leashes, toys, breath fresheners and tear-stain removers. No recession is being experienced here yet: A new watch list should have PETS on it with a PE beneath it's growth rate of at least 18%! Also the online Forbes coupled their story on PetMed with a picture of a Rhodesian Ridgeback! That's my Clyde! So I can see the conversation I might have with the hedge fund, Oh I liked the picture so much I bought the stock!

    Watching WGOV from last weeks list too.... Having trouble coming up with new names~SI
  5. stonedinvestor - if someone attempts to derail your thread, please pm me with the post and poster's name. I will take care of it.
  6. Thanks Ivan.

    My choices seem to boil down to this.

    ADM- Archer Daniels it's back to feed the world and feed China. When you scan through the recent news flow look at all the upgrades.
    Oct 6th JP Morgan overweight stk was $18.
    Oct 16th Meryl upgrade stk was $17.90.
    BMO Today stk is $19.50... this is a nice jumbo cluster and the chart looking out well it's got room to climb lets put it that way... I think you buy ADM today at a mild pull in to $19.00 and put it away until $36-$38. That's probably my move today.

    QSII Is a heath tech stk that I really like but it's PE is 24 and how much can you pay up in this market.

    PETS is quite a bit more interesting it's dipping under $15 a few times already today and really it's just another $2 up for an all time breakout- this has new leader written all over it and it is a low cost provider which is a big theme in these times. And it's got a PE of 18! QSII cuts costs too but their NexGen set up for corporations is a big outlay... Fido getting his meds cheaper in the mail however... that resonates with today's market conditions.

    PETS & ADM look sweet... but the evil side of me will wait on APWR here it's basing on a reaction low at $5.69. that came about on a downgrade, the stk got as high as $5.96 today... if one could catch this right, and the stk moved through six it's a very easy trip back above $7, so that's gnawing at me a bit.

    APA looks very strong, it's up 7%... was $81.50 at one point, settled back two dollars... how much exposure is too much exposure here I wonder.. ~stoney

    I am hovering around all these AG plays and there is an ETF index Market Vector thing called MOO. All these companies AGU, ADM, MOS, etc are in this fun as well as quite a bit of other stuff- 65% or so are in these names, they can invest in small stuff as long as a certain amount of their business is Ag related...
    I have really never played these index funds & don't understand them, unless you are using leverage which this one isn't what is the advantage to just picking the right stock? Wrestling with this now...

    The market is at an inflection point, the indices are square up against both price & mov avg resistance on 5 min charts. If we don't make a post lunch move out of these channels we will roll over HARD and basically complete a 5th wave down off Friday's highs... but since I was driving in a car for four of those waves, did they really happen?
    Deere & Company 9.25 -46.195 2.99 8.2x
    Monsanto Company 8.25 -10.9314 1.14 22.2x
    Syngenta AG ADR 8.25 -44.72 3.01 9.7x
    Potash Corporation of... 7.48 -63.73 0.51 11.5x
    The Mosaic Company 6.8 -27.8665 0.54 5.1x
    Archer Daniels Midlan... 4.47 -52.2837 2.68 6.6x
    Agrium, Inc. 4.41 -61.40 0.29 5.1x
    Bunge, Ltd. 4.3 -45.4573 1.62 3.5x
    Wilmar International ... 4.1 -54.93 1.90 0.0x
    KOMATSU Ltd 4.03 -59.26 381.82 0.0x
  8. 420 dude!
  9. My clock says only 12:30!

    Well ADM pulled into $19 and did we buy it????
    It's angry email time... WTF! Sorry you were in a meeting put the order in the system!!!

    Moving up nicely now. I'm hesitant here because I took a starter position in MOO- that's Ag, I own MOS, That's Ag and I'm looking to get into ADM & AGU this afternoon. WTF am I farmer? Why am I being drawn to these plays... well all the charts look the same... like a big shelf of mispricing...but each has a little annoying lower low before turning up and one wouldn't want to be holding the bag here. It is greed of course that is drawing me in... they could really move here- $10 a clip...It's a quandry especially because these stks are moving now on China and their 9% growth but Marc Faber " the Gloomster " basically said on Bloomberg they were lying about that number... makes you think.

    With the natural gas plays each up $6 do we stay cash neutral and dump those to buy ADM & AGU?...

    ENER is another stock I want to own here & PETS and that would be about it...

    Well I've sent my passive aggressive email in to the fellas. I've offered to sell the nat gas to go more into the Ag but they will hold me back if I'm making a fool of myself or have read some basic angle wrong. back to you with what they say. ~ stoney
  10. hey bro, have I got a solution for you. Take that clock down and turn it over. There should be a small dial or knob somewhere near the middle of the clock. Turn that thing until the clock reads the desired time. VOILÀ!!!!! 4:20. :D
    #10     Oct 20, 2008