Hey looking at your charts, it looks like you're trying to predict the tops and bottoms of reversals for your entries. Imo that's a tough game to play. When I first started out many years ago I would do that too but found it required much larger stops, with less contracts and a larger bank roll so that your large stop is a small fraction of a % of your account. Especially with multiple trades a day, each stop needs to be less than 1% of bank roll because otherwise a sequence of losers in a single day will draw you down big time, and within a week you'll be devastated. 6 years ago I switched my trading strategy to riding with the move, instead of trying to time a reversal like it looks like in your two screenshots. Since then I have been profitable every year and trade for fulltime income. The key here is to remember not to time the bottom or tops, but that there is a lot of meat in between. For example here's a quick look at ES 5 min chart from the last 12 hours. This right here is a text book ride the move entry my strategy on NinjaTrader took over night. Waited for large deviation from VWAP, then confirmation of reversal, then ate the meat of the move. For exit, trialing stop loss for scaling out of last contract. Over many years I've found the 5min chart works best for reducing noise, better than any tick chart. Of course for overnight trading like this you'll want to be running on a VPS, and highly recommend www.ninjamobiletrader.com for that, half the price of speedytradingservers for double the performance.
@deepfkvalue thanks for the comment. yeah, i tend to trade for reversals. from analyzing various amounts of charts, i came to the conclusion that some levels/zones keep holding price moves at least for a tradable bounce. i attached a screenshot. what i could not figure out so far is how to trade them properly, if i want to minimize risk, i need to put entry points wider away from level zone extremes, which can lead to no trades, but also that way i can put my SL far away, so if get stopped out, i know that my trade idea is invalidated. if i enter aggresively, my SL is triggered before the trade idea is invalidated, see yesterdays screenshot. if i put my SL further away, my risk-reward becomes less than 2R, which can on the long run not make the strategy profitable at all. otherwise, if i wait for price action confirmation, like price returning in a certain manner, once again, my R gets skewed. i am kind of trying to figure out if i can make rule based trading decisions based on those levels. i think it can not be coincidence that price turns/bounces off those zones. maybe i am just interpreting more than there is, i don't know.
It's not easy, especially if you are taking every potential zone reversal and the profit target is tight. A tighter profit target will naturally lead to a higher win rate, all else equal. But your overall expectancy can go down. You could try to add additional context like filters on top to reduce the number of zone reversals. It's difficult because with historical data it is easy to see the zones, and I agree there is a profitable trading strategy around them. But trading them live as they happen is much harder. Try to draw the zones and keep them on your chart if they are wrong. Then after the entire day, analyze all of your correct and wrong zones, and think about what you could have done differently to avoid drawing the wrong zones. Personally I was never able to do it either. Instead switched to confirmation after a zone reversal, and also filtered out zone reversals to only where it has a large VWAP deviation. The filtering down allowed to greatly increase profit target, and ultimately using trailing stop loss instead of a fixed target. This led to a much greater increase to RR. I don't know how true this is anymore, but legendary futures trader Paul Tudor Jones is famous for saying he looks for 5:1 opportunities. Google "paul tudor jones 5 to 1" if you haven't already read about it.
yeah thats right, in hindsight, everything looks crystal clear, but in realtime, calls are not that clear. i didn't think about filtering trades based on the VWAP deviation, i have the 1 and 2 Std on my chart, but i looked at them as sort of a momentum gauge, and in directional type of days the 24h VWAP likely acts as S/R. ( see attached screenshot with VWAP, the filter thing could be a thing xD) over the weekend i will analyze the filter thing and also one other thing that i think is valuable information. thank you for giving me good tips and insight to your strategy. yeah i know the legendary P.T. Jones. i have his documentary from 87' where he predicts the crash. what a guy!
i am not a good flow trader. i agree people put too much emphasis on math without understanding why or if the math is relevant. to quote Jurassic park: your people spent so much time wondering if they could they didn’t stop to think if they should.
If a post has been edited, in the right bottom corner there will be a line, "Last Edited: " just above "Reply" Here is my original post And here is my post as quoted by you It is obvious who is telling the truth and who is lying. Do it right now. If a post has been edited, in the right bottom corner there will be a line, "Last Edited: " just above "Reply" I've also asked Magna to confirm that my post has not been edited. You just locked yourself in, nowhere left to run.
@Thor @Overnight guys, come on. act like grown ups. if you still want to argue about that do it via PM, please.
Got to ask...You were top 5 percent in what ??? You could spend 15 minutes instructing,student practices for hours and is up to your top 5 percent level?? Do more than 20 people participate in this activity???
Hi geth03, I never started it, he did. There is nothing to continue now that the truth is out in the open for all to see.. In this post you said I never advised you to go to Tony Robbins . My advice to you was this In an individual sport participated in by over 50 countries. Two of my ex students reached the top 10 of the national ranking after I coached them. The key to everything is knowledge.
Not disputing the obvious value of knowledge,but no way is it the key to everything... If that were true it would be a level trading field